Built on the regraded Master Sheet (09-26), PFF’s updated O-line ranks (09-23), the live book board and Friday’s injury reports. The contest lines are in and the card is below. Hoppen’s composite and the WEPA files are not, so the model is running on one leg this week — the card leans on the frozen-vs-live line more than usual.
#1 — the biggest stale line on the board. Circa froze at 11.5; the book board is 10.4 (DraftKings 10, the rest 10.5). A full point. The sheet agrees independently at KC −9.9, so the blended fair is −10.2 and the edge is 1.3. Miami just scored 49 in San Francisco. Risk: they are still the worst roster on the sheet, and this is the same double-digit-dog shape that lost us Week 1 money. Game page →
#2 — the most valuable half-point in football. Contest 3, board 3.5 everywhere. On top of that, this game is in Rio: neutral site, so Dallas’s 1.25 of home-field value comes off the sheet and Baltimore’s number goes to −4.7. Blended edge 1.05, and we are laying 3 instead of 3.5. Risk: Baltimore is 1-1 and just lost at home to New Orleans. Game page →
#3 — same shape, same key number. Contest 3 flat; the board is 3 juiced to −120 with two books already at 3.5. New Orleans’ defense was regraded up two points this week and they won in Baltimore. Blended edge 1.03. Risk: Las Vegas is 2-0 and got the other big defensive regrade. Game page →
#4 — below the seven. Contest 6.5, board 6.7 with Rivers at 7. Master Sheet DET −8.0; blended fair −7.3, edge 0.8. The Jets are missing Minkah Fitzpatrick and their starting tight end. Risk: the market has come down three points from the lookahead, which is money, not narrative. Game page →
#5 — the cheap side of the 3. Jaxson Dart is out for the season and Jameis Winston starts; the line moved half a point. The sheet already applied that downgrade (QB 13 → 8) and still has the Giants by 3.7. Edge 0.6, laying less than the key number. Risk: a backup’s first start behind the #21 line. Game page →
CIN −3.5 — 0.8 edge, but a favorite laying more than the 3 with no stale line. That is exactly how Green Bay lost last week, which is why it’s an alternate and not a pick. SEA −7.5 — 0.6, wrong side of the 7. CLE +2.5 — 0.5, dog below the 3.
| Game | Contest | Book board | Stale gap | Sheet | Edge vs contest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC @ MIA | KC −11.5 | −10.4 | MIA 1.10 | KC −9.9 | MIA 1.32 |
| BAL vs DAL | BAL −3.0 | −3.5 | BAL 0.50 (through the 3) | BAL −4.7 | BAL 1.05 |
| LV @ NO | NO −3.0 | −3.3 | NO 0.30 | NO −4.9 | NO 1.03 |
| MIN @ TB | MIN −1.0 | −1.6 | MIN 0.60 | MIN −0.6 | MIN 0.15 — columns disagree |
| NYJ @ DET | DET −6.5 | −6.7 | DET 0.20 | DET −8.0 | DET 0.80 |
| NE @ JAX | JAX −3.0 | −2.8 | NE 0.20 (gets the 3) | NE −1.0 ⚠ | NE 0.20 |
| LAC @ BUF | BUF −7.0 | −7.2 | BUF 0.20 | BUF −7.0 | BUF 0.10 |
| PHI @ CHI | PHI −4.5 | −4.7 | PHI 0.20 | PHI −4.1 | CHI 0.06 |
| HOU @ IND | HOU −1.5 | −1.7 | HOU 0.20 | HOU −0.6 | IND 0.28 |
| LAR @ DEN | LAR −2.5 | −2.35 | DEN 0.15 | DEN +1.3 ⚠ | DEN 0.15 |
| SEA @ WAS · TEN @ NYG · ARI @ SF · CIN @ PIT · CAR @ CLE | contest within a tenth of the board | none | see the game pages | ||
How to read this. The stale gap is column two of the two-edge test — the frozen Thursday number against what the market says today. The sheet column is column one. The card is the three games where both columns point the same way, plus two where one column is strong and the key number is on our side. Week 2’s winners came from exactly this table: Pittsburgh at 5.5 when the book said 5, Denver at 2.5 when the book said 3.
Daniels out; the market moved four points and the sheet moved further. Master Sheet SEA −8.7 against a market of 7.5. Washington is 0-2 with the league’s #31 O-line, now without its quarterback.
ALTERNATE #2 — SEA −7.5 · 0.6 edge, wrong side of the 7| Master Sheet | SEA −8.7 |
| Hoppen comp. | — |
| Lookahead | SEA −3.5 |
| Circa contest | SEA −7.5 |
| Book board | SEA −7.5 |
| OL now | DL | DB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 13 ↑2 | 5 | 6 |
| WAS | 31 ↑1 | 25 | 31 |
The Week 2 lesson applies here. Master Sheet CIN −5.3 vs a contest line of 3.5 — 0.8 of blended edge, but it is a favorite laying more than the key number, which is exactly how Green Bay lost last week. Contest and book agree at 3.5, so there is no stale line to buy.
ALTERNATE #1 — CIN −3.5 · 0.8 edge, wrong side of the 3| Master Sheet | CIN −5.3 |
| Hoppen comp. | — |
| Lookahead | CIN −1.5 |
| Circa contest | CIN −3.5 |
| Book board | CIN −3.5 |
| OL now | DL | DB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 17 ↑3 | 8 | 18 |
| PIT | 12 ↑2 | 3 | 5 |
Detroit below the key number. Contest 6.5, book board 6.7 (Rivers at 7). Master Sheet DET −8.0; blended fair DET −7.3 — 0.8 on the Lions, laying less than a touchdown.
ON THE CARD #4 — DET −6.5 · below the 7, model 0.8 past it| Master Sheet | DET −8.0 |
| Hoppen comp. | — |
| Lookahead | DET −9.5 |
| Circa contest | DET −6.5 |
| Book board | DET −6.5 |
| OL now | DL | DB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | 18 ↑3 | 29 | 29 |
| DET | 16 ↑3 | 10 | 21 |
Jameis Winston starts, and the market never moved. Lookahead NYG −3, contest −2.5, board −2.6 — a season-ending injury to Jaxson Dart moved this line half a point. The sheet still says NYG −3.7 because Tennessee is the second-worst roster on it.
ON THE CARD #5 — NYG −2.5 · below the 3, Winston starts| Master Sheet | NYG −3.7 |
| Hoppen comp. | — |
| Lookahead | NYG −3 |
| Circa contest | NYG −2.5 |
| Book board | NYG −2.5 |
| OL now | DL | DB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | 28 ↑1 | 17 | 30 |
| NYG | 21 ↑2 | 21 | 27 |
Alarm: the sheet and the market are 3.8 points apart. Master Sheet NE −1.0; market JAX −2.8. The Patriots are 0-2 and just lost their right guard — PFF dropped their line from #11 to #22.
STAY AWAY — alarm; NE +3 is the right side of the key if you want it| Master Sheet | NE −1.0 |
| Hoppen comp. | — |
| Lookahead | JAX −1.5 |
| Circa contest | JAX −3.0 |
| Book board | JAX −2.5 / −3 |
| OL now | DL | DB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 22 ↓9 | 16 | 1 |
| JAX | 27 ↑3 | 9 | 9 |
Circa froze at 11.5; the market is at 10.4. A full point of stale line, and the sheet agrees — KC −9.9. Blended fair is KC −10.2, so 1.3 points on Miami, the best number on the slate.
ON THE CARD #1 — MIA +11.5 · biggest stale gap on the board| Master Sheet | KC −9.9 |
| Hoppen comp. | — |
| Lookahead | KC −7 |
| Circa contest | KC −11.5 |
| Book board | KC −10.5 |
| OL now | DL | DB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 14 ↓6 | 19 | 23 |
| MIA | 25 | 30 | 32 |
Two 0-2 teams, and the sheet now has this at a pick. Master Sheet HOU −0.6 against a market of 1.5. Houston’s WR grade fell 5.75 → 3.8 with Collins out again.
STAY AWAY — 0.3 edge and the contest line is worse than the board| Master Sheet | HOU −0.6 |
| Hoppen comp. | — |
| Lookahead | HOU −1.5 |
| Circa contest | HOU −1.5 |
| Book board | HOU −1.5 |
| OL now | DL | DB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 30 ↓3 | 2 | 2 |
| IND | 3 ↑1 | 18 | 16 |
The sheet is on Cleveland. Master Sheet CAR −1.4 against a market of 2.5 — a point of value on the home dog, with Cleveland’s 1.75 home-field value included.
ALTERNATE #3 — CLE +2.5 · 0.5 edge, dog below the 3| Master Sheet | CAR −1.4 |
| Hoppen comp. | — |
| Lookahead | CAR −1.5 |
| Circa contest | CAR −2.5 |
| Book board | CAR −2.5 |
| OL now | DL | DB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 26 | 15 | 14 |
| CLE | 29 ↑2 | 12 | 12 |
The sheet and the market agree within a quarter-point — BUF −7.0 vs a market of 7.2, sitting on the key number. Buffalo’s D-line was regraded up 7.5 → 9.4.
STAY AWAY — contest 7, board 7.2; sheet and market agree| Master Sheet | BUF −7.0 |
| Hoppen comp. | — |
| Lookahead | BUF −2.5 |
| Circa contest | BUF −7.0 |
| Book board | BUF −7 |
| OL now | DL | DB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | 9 ↓2 | 23 | 11 |
| BUF | 6 | 14 | 13 |
The sheet has this at a pick; the market has Minnesota laying it on the road. Master Sheet MIN −0.6 vs a market of 1.6. Tampa is 0-2 and was regraded down at quarterback and on the D-line.
STAY AWAY — stale line says Minnesota, model says Tampa| Master Sheet | MIN −0.6 |
| Hoppen comp. | — |
| Lookahead | TB −1.5 |
| Circa contest | MIN −1.0 |
| Book board | MIN −1.5 |
| OL now | DL | DB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 11 ↑1 | 22 | 22 |
| TB | 2 ↑1 | 11 | 15 |
Alarm: sheet 2.6 points past the market. Master Sheet SF −11.0 vs a market of 8.4. Nick Bosa is out, and the sheet’s D-line cut (8.0 → 7.0) may not be enough for that.
STAY AWAY — sheet says SF by 2.5 more, but Bosa is out and the sheet barely moved| Master Sheet | SF −11.0 |
| Hoppen comp. | — |
| Lookahead | SF −11.5 |
| Circa contest | SF −8.5 |
| Book board | SF −8.5 |
| OL now | DL | DB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 20 ↑2 | 31 | 26 |
| SF | 8 ↑2 | 20 | 24 |
Another favorite sitting on the 3 while the market pushes past it. Books are −3 at −118 to −122 with two at −3.5. Master Sheet NO −4.9 after New Orleans’ defense was regraded up two points. Blended edge 1.03 on the Saints.
ON THE CARD #3 — NO −3 · favorite on the 3 with the juice moving away| Master Sheet | NO −4.9 |
| Hoppen comp. | — |
| Lookahead | NO −3 |
| Circa contest | NO −3.0 |
| Book board | NO −3 |
| OL now | DL | DB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 15 ↑3 | 24 | 28 |
| NO | 19 ↓3 | 28 | 25 |
Circa gives you the 3; the market is at 3.5. And the venue is Rio — neither team gets home field, which is worth 1.25 points to Dallas on the sheet. Corrected, the sheet says BAL −4.7. Blended edge: 1.05 on Baltimore.
ON THE CARD #2 — BAL −3 · on the key number, neutral site| Master Sheet | BAL −4.7 |
| Hoppen comp. | — |
| Lookahead | BAL −2.5 |
| Circa contest | BAL −3.0 |
| Book board | BAL −3.5 |
| OL now | DL | DB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 23 ↑1 | 7 | 8 |
| DAL | 24 ↓7 | 13 | 20 |
Alarm: 3.6 points apart. Master Sheet has Denver by 1.3; the market has the Rams by 2.5. This is the third straight week the sheet’s Denver grade (69.75, #3 in the league) has fought the market — and the market won last week.
STAY AWAY — third straight week the sheet fights the market on Denver| Master Sheet | DEN −1.3 |
| Hoppen comp. | — |
| Lookahead | LAR −2.5 |
| Circa contest | LAR −2.5 |
| Book board | LAR −2.5 |
| OL now | DL | DB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAR | 10 ↑1 | 1 | 7 |
| DEN | 1 | 6 | 3 |
Caleb Williams ruled out. The line swung from Chicago −1.5 to Philadelphia −4.5, and the sheet agrees — PHI −4.1 vs a market of 4.7. Chicago was regraded QB 12.5 → 9.0.
STAY AWAY — six-point move already absorbed; nothing left| Master Sheet | PHI −4.1 |
| Hoppen comp. | — |
| Lookahead | CHI −1.5 |
| Circa contest | PHI −4.5 |
| Book board | PHI −4.5 |
| OL now | DL | DB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 4 ↓2 | 4 | 4 |
| CHI | 5 | 26 | 19 |
An estimate of the sides most likely to attract Circa Million selections. The primary order follows locked Average Joe spread-pick counts. Covers and PFF show agreement and disagreement. These are popularity signals, not cover probabilities or the Handicap Room’s betting card.
1,009 Average Joe picks
Covers: 542 picks · 55% within the matchup.
531 Average Joe picks
Covers: 524 picks · 55% within the matchup.
527 Average Joe picks
Covers: 702 picks · 69% within the matchup.
464 Average Joe picks
Covers: 711 picks · 69% within the matchup.
461 Average Joe picks
Covers: 544 picks · 55% within the matchup.
The broadest agreement among the five. Seattle has 464 Average Joe picks, 69% Covers support, and 89% of PFF’s displayed spread tickets with 90% of the money.
The clear Average Joe leader. New Orleans has 1,009 spread picks, almost twice Tampa Bay’s 531. Covers gives the Saints 55%; PFF displays 52% of tickets on the Raiders, so the sportsbook sample is much less one-sided.
Houston leads Cincinnati by only 17 Average Joe picks. Covers favors Cincinnati more strongly, 65% versus Houston’s 55%. PFF shows 75% of tickets on Cincinnati, while Indianapolis has 57% in the Houston matchup. Cincinnati −3.5 is the first alternate; promoting it would be a judgment adjustment, not the output of a fitted model.
Mixed evidence. Jacksonville has 527 Average Joe picks and 69% Covers support, but PFF displays only 38% of tickets on Jacksonville. The sources describe different participant samples.
Contest support exceeds sportsbook support. Tampa Bay has 531 Average Joe picks and 55% Covers support. PFF displays 61% of tickets on Minnesota at a source line of −1.5; the locked Circa line is Minnesota −1 / Tampa Bay +1.
| AJ rank | Circa side | AJ picks / line | Covers picks / % / line | PFF tickets | PFF money |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NO −3 vs LV | 1,009 −3 | 542 / 55% −4.5 | — | — |
| 2 | TB +1 vs MIN | 531 +1 | 524 / 55% +1.5 | — | — |
| 3 | JAX −3 vs NE | 527 −3 | 702 / 69% −2.5 | 38% | 46% |
| 4 | SEA −7.5 at WAS | 464 −7.5 | 711 / 69% −7.5 | 89% | 90% |
| 5 | HOU −1.5 at IND | 461 −1.5 | 544 / 55% −2.5 | — | — |
| 6 | CIN −3.5 at PIT | 444 −3.5 | 662 / 65% −3.5 | 75% | 81% |
| 7 | DET −6.5 vs NYJ | 402 −6.5 | 645 / 65% −6.5 | 74% | 77% |
| 8 | CAR −2.5 at CLE | 391 −2.5 | 733 / 70% −1.5 | 77% | 70% |
| 9 | BUF −7 vs LAC | 315 −7 | 683 / 65% −7.5 | 75% | 73% |
| 10 | LAC +7 at BUF | 308 +7 | 370 / 35% +7.5 | — | — |
| 11 | DEN +2.5 vs LAR | 248 +2.5 | 458 / 51% +1.5 | — | 55% |
| 12 | BAL −3 at DAL | 239 −3.5 | 555 / 55% −3.5 | — | 67% |
| 13 | KC −11.5 at MIA | 226 −10.5 | 639 / 65% −2.5 * | 88% | 85% |
| 14 | MIN −1 at TB | 220 −1 | 435 / 45% −1.5 | 61% | 64% |
| 15 | PHI −4.5 at CHI | 201 −4.5 | 529 / 63% −4.5 | 72% | 78% |
| 16 | LAR −2.5 at DEN | 189 −2.5 | 448 / 49% −1.5 | 65% | — |
| 17 | NYG −2.5 vs TEN | 179 −2.5 | 566 / 59% −1.5 | — | — |
| 18 | PIT +3.5 vs CIN | 169 +3.5 | 356 / 35% +3.5 | — | — |
| 19 | NYJ +6.5 at DET | 166 +6.5 | 352 / 35% +6.5 | — | — |
| 20 | CLE +2.5 vs CAR | 155 +2.5 | 311 / 30% +1.5 | — | — |
| 21 | IND +1.5 vs HOU | 154 +1.5 | 440 / 45% +2.5 | 57% | 66% |
| 22 | TEN +2.5 at NYG | 151 +2.5 | 394 / 41% +1.5 | 71% | 72% |
| 23 | ARI +8.5 at SF | 150 +8.5 | 333 / 35% +9.5 | — | — |
| 24 | MIA +11.5 vs KC | 147 +10.5 | 341 / 35% +2.5 * | — | — |
| 25 | CHI +4.5 vs PHI | 147 +4.5 | 306 / 37% +4.5 | — | — |
| 26 | SF −8.5 vs ARI | 128 −8.5 | 609 / 65% −9.5 | 81% | 82% |
| 27 | DAL +3 vs BAL | 127 +3.5 | 446 / 45% +3.5 | 51% | — |
| 28 | WAS +7.5 vs SEA | 82 +7.5 | 325 / 31% +7.5 | — | — |
| 29 | NE +3 at JAX | 79 +3 | 314 / 31% +2.5 | — | — |
| 30 | LV +3 at NO | 70 +3 | 440 / 45% +4.5 | 52% | 52% |
Covers percentages are within each matchup. PFF percentages refer to its displayed betting sample, not the overall market. A dash means that team’s value was not explicitly shown in the supplied PFF screenshot; it does not mean zero. Scroll the table sideways on small screens.
Rank = descending Average Joe spread-pick count. Covers, PFF tickets, money and model edge have zero numerical weight in this displayed order. Ties would be retained at the fifth-place boundary. Game-card totals and over/under selections are excluded.
Covers and PFF inform the written comparison. PFF’s underlying sample overlap is unverified, and money share is kept separate from ticket share. No verified sportsbook refresh or line-movement history was added to this consensus snapshot.
The separate experimental composite would give equal weight to community selections, sportsbook tickets and contest-line advantage when sufficiently covered. It is inactive for this snapshot because independent sportsbook and market inputs are missing. No calibrated likelihood of finishing in Circa’s top five is available.
Average Joe matched four of Week 1’s official top five, versus two for the original composite and one for Covers. That is a one-week comparison, not validation of predictive accuracy.
Our own NFL player projections, built from preseason consensus efficiency and projected weekly snaps. Separate from the sportsbook and weighted TAPS forecasts.
Traina Projections are our own weekly NFL fantasy football projections. We start with a multi-source preseason consensus, estimate DraftKings points per offensive snap, and project how many snaps each player will play in the upcoming matchup. The result is a distinct model forecast, before sportsbook or weekly outside-source points enter the blend.
Use these NFL DFS projections to compare quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends on the Week 3 DraftKings Classic main slate. The published points use full-PPR DraftKings scoring and an expected yardage-bonus allowance, not a half-PPR season-long ranking.
Preseason consensus rates, not one analyst. Projected season production is translated into component rates and estimated DK points per snap. The preseason expectation remains the efficiency anchor.
Recent snap share matters more than raw snap totals. Weeks 1–2 playing time updates the role estimate, with shrinkage toward the preseason role and recorded quarterback/injury exclusions.
Team and opponent play volume set the opportunity forecast. A high-snap game last week does not automatically imply the same number of snaps this week. Team plays and player share remain separate.
Projected player snaps × baseline DK points per snap. The table shows both inputs. The model includes a historical, shrunk yardage-bonus allowance. The separate EPA/success-rate defense scenario has not been promoted into these official Traina points.
| Player | Matchup | Traina DK | Snaps | DK / snap | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF vs LAC | 21.94 | 63.8 | 0.344 | Unverified |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL vs DAL | 20.93 | 63.3 | 0.331 | Unverified |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC vs MIA | 19.93 | 65.7 | 0.303 | Unverified |
| Dak Prescott | DAL vs BAL | 19.65 | 65.5 | 0.300 | Unverified |
| Tyler Shough | NO vs LV | 19.62 | 66.9 | 0.293 | Unverified |
| Joe Burrow | CIN vs PIT | 19.36 | 65.0 | 0.298 | Unverified |
| Drake Maye | NE vs JAX | 19.35 | 62.3 | 0.311 | Unverified |
| Brock Purdy | SF vs ARI | 19.21 | 64.4 | 0.298 | Unverified |
| Justin Herbert | LAC vs BUF | 18.86 | 63.8 | 0.296 | Unverified |
| Jared Goff | DET vs NYJ | 18.64 | 63.6 | 0.293 | Unverified |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX vs NE | 18.50 | 63.3 | 0.292 | Unverified |
| Baker Mayfield | TB vs MIN | 18.42 | 65.8 | 0.280 | Unverified |
| Kyler Murray | MIN vs TB | 18.32 | 60.4 | 0.304 | Unverified |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI vs SF | 18.28 | 64.0 | 0.286 | Unverified |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS vs SEA | 18.16 | 64.9 | 0.280 | Unverified |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU vs IND | 18.08 | 71.7 | 0.252 | Unverified |
| Daniel Jones | IND vs HOU | 17.37 | 61.4 | 0.283 | Unverified |
| Jameis Winston | NYG vs TEN | 16.92 | 66.3 | 0.255 | Unverified |
| Geno Smith | NYJ vs DET | 16.77 | 67.0 | 0.250 | Unverified |
| Sam Darnold | SEA vs WAS | 16.68 | 62.2 | 0.268 | Unverified |
| Malik Willis | MIA vs KC | 16.41 | 58.0 | 0.283 | Unverified |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT vs CIN | 16.30 | 64.4 | 0.253 | Unverified |
| Bryce Young | CAR vs CLE | 16.03 | 62.5 | 0.256 | Unverified |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE vs CAR | 15.26 | 63.5 | 0.240 | Unverified |
| Kirk Cousins | LV vs NO | 14.77 | 63.4 | 0.233 | Unverified |
| Cam Ward | TEN vs NYG | 14.53 | 61.0 | 0.238 | Unverified |
| Drew Lock | SEA vs WAS | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.195 | Unverified |
| Fernando Mendoza | LV vs NO | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.246 | Unverified |
| Justin Fields | KC vs MIA | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.236 | Unverified |
| Anthony Richardson Sr. | IND vs HOU | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.233 | Unverified |
| Cade Klubnik | NYJ vs DET | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.214 | Unverified |
| Jake Haener | NYG vs TEN | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
| Davis Mills | HOU vs IND | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.236 | Unverified |
| Mac Jones | SF vs ARI | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.283 | Unverified |
| Joe Flacco | CIN vs PIT | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.254 | Unverified |
| Spencer Rattler | NO vs LV | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.247 | Unverified |
| Joshua Dobbs | DET vs NYJ | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.203 | Unverified |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL vs DAL | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.200 | Unverified |
| Shedeur Sanders | CLE vs CAR | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.232 | Unverified |
| Kenny Pickett | CAR vs CLE | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.258 | Unverified |
| Sam Howell | DAL vs BAL | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.215 | Unverified |
| Mason Rudolph | PIT vs CIN | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.257 | Unverified |
| Gardner Minshew II | ARI vs SF | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.242 | Unverified |
| Carson Wentz | MIN vs TB | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.333 | Unverified |
| Quinn Ewers | JAX vs NE | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.206 | Unverified |
| Mitchell Trubisky | TEN vs NYG | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
| Athan Kaliakmanis | WAS vs SEA | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
| Jalon Daniels | TB vs MIN | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.211 | Unverified |
| Tommy DeVito | NE vs JAX | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.212 | Unverified |
| Kyle Allen | BUF vs LAC | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.238 | Unverified |
| Kyle McCord | MIA vs KC | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.211 | Unverified |
| Trey Lance | LAC vs BUF | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.262 | Q |
| Carson Beck | ARI vs SF | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.225 | Unverified |
| Riley Leonard | IND vs HOU | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.295 | Unverified |
| Joe Fagnano | BAL vs DAL | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
| Skylar Thompson | BAL vs DAL | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
| Shane Buechele | BUF vs LAC | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
| Haynes King | CAR vs CLE | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
| Josh Johnson | CIN vs PIT | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
| Sean Clifford | CIN vs PIT | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
| Dillon Gabriel | CLE vs CAR | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.250 | Unverified |
| Taylen Green | CLE vs CAR | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.375 | Unverified |
| Joe Milton III | DAL vs BAL | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.259 | Unverified |
| Luke Altmyer | DET vs NYJ | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
| Graham Mertz | HOU vs IND | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
| Joey Aguilar | JAX vs NE | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
| Nick Mullens | JAX vs NE | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.210 | Unverified |
| Garrett Nussmeier | KC vs MIA | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
| DJ Uiagalelei | LAC vs BUF | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV vs NO | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.245 | Q |
| Brady Cook | MIA vs KC | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.257 | Unverified |
| J.J. McCarthy | MIN vs TB | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.259 | Unverified |
| Max Brosmer | MIN vs TB | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
| Behren Morton | NE vs JAX | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
| Zach Wilson | NO vs LV | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.219 | Unverified |
| Jaxson Dart | NYG vs TEN | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.278 | Unverified |
| Bailey Zappe | NYJ vs DET | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
| Will Levis | NYJ vs DET | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
| Drew Allar | PIT vs CIN | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
| Will Howard | PIT vs CIN | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.221 | Unverified |
| Jalen Milroe | SEA vs WAS | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.567 | Unverified |
| Kurtis Rourke | SF vs ARI | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
| Easton Stick | TB vs MIN | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
| Hendon Hooker | TEN vs NYG | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS vs SEA | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.324 | OUT |
| Sam Hartman | WAS vs SEA | 0.00 | 0.0 | — | Unverified |
Fixed projection order, not a sortable comparison tool. DK / snap is rounded for display; calculations use full precision. Scroll the table within its frame on a small screen.
| Player | Matchup | Traina DK | Snaps | DK / snap | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET vs NYJ | 22.78 | 50.0 | 0.456 | Unverified |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT vs CIN | 21.44 | 52.3 | 0.410 | Q |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND vs HOU | 19.79 | 55.0 | 0.360 | Unverified |
| James Cook III | BUF vs LAC | 19.49 | 44.8 | 0.435 | Unverified |
| De'Von Achane | MIA vs KC | 19.31 | 47.1 | 0.410 | Unverified |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC vs MIA | 19.05 | 48.7 | 0.391 | Unverified |
| Chase Brown | CIN vs PIT | 17.35 | 45.4 | 0.382 | Unverified |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV vs NO | 16.98 | 49.5 | 0.343 | Unverified |
| Bucky Irving | TB vs MIN | 16.12 | 45.7 | 0.352 | Unverified |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF vs ARI | 15.71 | 36.4 | 0.431 | Unverified |
| Derrick Henry | BAL vs DAL | 15.55 | 34.8 | 0.448 | Unverified |
| Javonte Williams | DAL vs BAL | 15.49 | 48.8 | 0.318 | Unverified |
| Breece Hall | NYJ vs DET | 15.15 | 42.5 | 0.357 | Unverified |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE vs CAR | 14.37 | 41.2 | 0.349 | Unverified |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN vs TB | 14.03 | 38.4 | 0.365 | Unverified |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG vs TEN | 13.88 | 38.8 | 0.358 | Unverified |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC vs BUF | 13.81 | 39.7 | 0.348 | Unverified |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | NO vs LV | 12.87 | 37.9 | 0.339 | Unverified |
| TreVeyon Henderson | NE vs JAX | 12.78 | 34.7 | 0.368 | Unverified |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR vs CLE | 12.50 | 40.0 | 0.313 | Unverified |
| David Montgomery | HOU vs IND | 12.44 | 37.2 | 0.334 | Unverified |
| Tyler Allgeier | ARI vs SF | 11.65 | 34.5 | 0.338 | Unverified |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs NE | 10.87 | 31.8 | 0.342 | Unverified |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE vs JAX | 10.40 | 33.4 | 0.312 | Unverified |
| Tony Pollard | TEN vs NYG | 9.93 | 33.7 | 0.295 | Unverified |
| Jeremiyah Love | ARI vs SF | 9.93 | 29.0 | 0.342 | Unverified |
| Rachaad White | WAS vs SEA | 9.79 | 31.0 | 0.316 | Unverified |
| Justice Hill | BAL vs DAL | 9.75 | 26.7 | 0.365 | Unverified |
| Kenny Gainwell | TB vs MIN | 9.62 | 25.4 | 0.378 | Unverified |
| Woody Marks | HOU vs IND | 9.50 | 33.0 | 0.288 | Unverified |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS vs SEA | 8.79 | 26.8 | 0.328 | Unverified |
| Jadarian Price | SEA vs WAS | 8.45 | 25.8 | 0.327 | Unverified |
| Tyjae Spears | TEN vs NYG | 8.10 | 24.3 | 0.333 | Q |
| DJ Herman | MIA vs KC | 7.49 | 14.9 | 0.502 | Unverified |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ vs DET | 6.40 | 22.0 | 0.291 | Unverified |
| Samaje Perine | CIN vs PIT | 6.38 | 22.0 | 0.291 | Unverified |
| Alvin Kamara | NO vs LV | 6.15 | 20.6 | 0.299 | Unverified |
| Kaelon Black | SF vs ARI | 6.05 | 21.0 | 0.288 | Unverified |
| Keaton Mitchell | LAC vs BUF | 5.93 | 16.3 | 0.365 | Unverified |
| George Holani | SEA vs WAS | 5.76 | 17.9 | 0.321 | Unverified |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX vs NE | 5.53 | 18.3 | 0.303 | Unverified |
| Devin Singletary | NYG vs TEN | 5.53 | 16.6 | 0.333 | Unverified |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA vs WAS | 5.18 | 18.9 | 0.274 | Unverified |
| Emmett Johnson | KC vs MIA | 4.78 | 14.2 | 0.336 | Unverified |
| Ty Johnson | BUF vs LAC | 4.43 | 12.2 | 0.363 | Unverified |
| Kendre Miller | NO vs LV | 4.37 | 15.2 | 0.288 | Unverified |
| Raheim Sanders | CLE vs CAR | 3.85 | 13.3 | 0.290 | Unverified |
| Mike Washington Jr. | LV vs NO | 3.83 | 13.6 | 0.282 | Unverified |
| Hunter Luepke | DAL vs BAL | 3.50 | 11.9 | 0.294 | Unverified |
| Sione Vaki | DET vs NYJ | 3.40 | 11.5 | 0.296 | Unverified |
| Jordan James | SF vs ARI | 2.95 | 10.3 | 0.287 | Unverified |
| Ray Davis | BUF vs LAC | 2.90 | 7.9 | 0.369 | Unverified |
| Emari Demercado | DAL vs BAL | 2.40 | 8.2 | 0.293 | Unverified |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF vs ARI | 2.40 | 30.3 | 0.079 | Unverified |
| Ollie Gordon II | MIA vs KC | 2.34 | 8.5 | 0.275 | Unverified |
| Dylan Laube | LV vs NO | 2.23 | 7.4 | 0.301 | Unverified |
| Kimani Vidal | LAC vs BUF | 2.06 | 7.1 | 0.292 | Unverified |
| DJ Giddens | IND vs HOU | 1.94 | 6.4 | 0.301 | Unverified |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | JAX vs NE | 1.87 | 6.8 | 0.274 | Unverified |
| Kaytron Allen | WAS vs SEA | 1.87 | 6.1 | 0.308 | Unverified |
| Nick Singleton | TEN vs NYG | 1.86 | 6.2 | 0.302 | Unverified |
| AJ Dillon | CAR vs CLE | 1.72 | 5.6 | 0.307 | Unverified |
| Seth McGowan | IND vs HOU | 1.66 | 5.1 | 0.329 | Unverified |
| Corey Kiner | NE vs JAX | 1.36 | 4.8 | 0.284 | Unverified |
| Bam Knight | ARI vs SF | 1.26 | 3.9 | 0.326 | Unverified |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG vs TEN | 1.12 | 3.4 | 0.324 | Unverified |
| Demond Claiborne | MIN vs TB | 0.96 | 3.2 | 0.300 | Unverified |
| Patrick Ricard | NYG vs TEN | 0.87 | 25.1 | 0.035 | Unverified |
| Sean Tucker | TB vs MIN | 0.82 | 2.2 | 0.370 | Unverified |
| Eli Heidenreich | PIT vs CIN | 0.78 | 2.4 | 0.331 | Unverified |
| Isaiah Davis | NYJ vs DET | 0.63 | 2.0 | 0.309 | Unverified |
| Brashard Smith | KC vs MIA | 0.59 | 1.7 | 0.354 | Unverified |
| Tahj Brooks | CIN vs PIT | 0.57 | 2.2 | 0.256 | Unverified |
| Rasheen Ali | BAL vs DAL | 0.35 | 1.3 | 0.260 | Unverified |
| British Brooks | HOU vs IND | 0.31 | 1.0 | 0.299 | Unverified |
| Jacob Saylors | DET vs NYJ | 0.26 | 0.8 | 0.310 | Unverified |
| Jaylen Wright | MIA vs KC | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.339 | Doubtful |
| Kene Nwangwu | NYJ vs DET | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.274 | Doubtful |
| Rico Dowdle | PIT vs CIN | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.360 | OUT |
| Travis Homer | PIT vs CIN | -0.12 | 1.7 | -0.072 | Unverified |
Fixed projection order, not a sortable comparison tool. DK / snap is rounded for display; calculations use full precision. Scroll the table within its frame on a small screen.
| Player | Matchup | Traina DK | Snaps | DK / snap | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN vs PIT | 21.47 | 65.0 | 0.330 | Unverified |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET vs NYJ | 19.18 | 58.8 | 0.326 | Unverified |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA vs WAS | 17.16 | 47.9 | 0.358 | Unverified |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN vs TB | 16.26 | 59.1 | 0.275 | Unverified |
| Chris Olave | NO vs LV | 15.95 | 56.7 | 0.281 | Unverified |
| Rashee Rice | KC vs MIA | 15.68 | 52.3 | 0.300 | Unverified |
| Tee Higgins | CIN vs PIT | 14.59 | 61.4 | 0.238 | Unverified |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL vs BAL | 13.71 | 52.4 | 0.262 | Unverified |
| DK Metcalf | PIT vs CIN | 13.54 | 60.7 | 0.223 | Unverified |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ vs DET | 13.45 | 58.1 | 0.231 | Unverified |
| George Pickens | DAL vs BAL | 13.43 | 52.2 | 0.257 | Unverified |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB vs MIN | 13.32 | 56.4 | 0.236 | Unverified |
| Josh Downs | IND vs HOU | 12.98 | 56.9 | 0.228 | Unverified |
| Mike Evans | SF vs ARI | 12.85 | 48.8 | 0.263 | Q |
| Jameson Williams | DET vs NYJ | 12.74 | 58.9 | 0.216 | Unverified |
| Michael Wilson | ARI vs SF | 12.23 | 55.9 | 0.219 | Unverified |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS vs SEA | 12.04 | 50.5 | 0.238 | Unverified |
| Malik Washington | MIA vs KC | 11.77 | 58.0 | 0.203 | Unverified |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR vs CLE | 11.59 | 53.2 | 0.218 | Unverified |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | TB vs MIN | 11.54 | 55.5 | 0.208 | Unverified |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC vs BUF | 11.32 | 53.8 | 0.210 | Unverified |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | PIT vs CIN | 11.31 | 57.4 | 0.197 | Q |
| Malik Nabers | NYG vs TEN | 10.99 | 46.6 | 0.236 | Unverified |
| Parker Washington | JAX vs NE | 10.90 | 47.5 | 0.229 | Unverified |
| Xavier Worthy | KC vs MIA | 10.71 | 53.3 | 0.201 | Unverified |
| Stefon Diggs | WAS vs SEA | 10.43 | 35.8 | 0.292 | Unverified |
| Jordan Addison | MIN vs TB | 10.43 | 51.6 | 0.202 | Unverified |
| Jakobi Meyers | JAX vs NE | 10.38 | 50.1 | 0.207 | Unverified |
| Keenan Allen | IND vs HOU | 10.17 | 37.5 | 0.271 | Unverified |
| Adonai Mitchell | NYJ vs DET | 10.14 | 48.0 | 0.211 | Q |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI vs SF | 9.97 | 48.9 | 0.204 | Unverified |
| Denzel Boston | CLE vs CAR | 9.82 | 56.2 | 0.175 | Unverified |
| Devaughn Vele | NO vs LV | 9.77 | 58.3 | 0.167 | Unverified |
| Carnell Tate | TEN vs NYG | 9.76 | 50.2 | 0.194 | Unverified |
| Ryan Flournoy | DAL vs BAL | 9.71 | 43.9 | 0.221 | Unverified |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF vs ARI | 9.60 | 43.1 | 0.223 | Unverified |
| Jalen Coker | CAR vs CLE | 8.88 | 48.8 | 0.182 | Q |
| Malachi Fields | NYG vs TEN | 8.73 | 46.0 | 0.190 | Unverified |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL vs DAL | 8.72 | 53.3 | 0.164 | Unverified |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN vs NYG | 8.72 | 40.0 | 0.218 | Unverified |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC vs BUF | 8.49 | 38.1 | 0.223 | Unverified |
| Zay Flowers | BAL vs DAL | 8.49 | 33.5 | 0.254 | Q |
| Romeo Doubs | NE vs JAX | 8.38 | 40.6 | 0.206 | Unverified |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF vs LAC | 8.35 | 33.1 | 0.252 | Unverified |
| Bryce Lance | NO vs LV | 8.28 | 44.7 | 0.185 | Unverified |
| Rashid Shaheed | SEA vs WAS | 8.10 | 37.7 | 0.215 | Unverified |
| KC Concepcion Jr. | CLE vs CAR | 7.94 | 44.0 | 0.180 | Unverified |
| Tre' Harris | LAC vs BUF | 7.73 | 51.4 | 0.150 | Unverified |
| Ted Hurst III | TB vs MIN | 7.69 | 42.4 | 0.181 | Unverified |
| DeMario Douglas | NE vs JAX | 7.65 | 29.9 | 0.256 | Unverified |
| Calvin Ridley | TEN vs NYG | 7.63 | 38.2 | 0.199 | Unverified |
| Dyami Brown | WAS vs SEA | 7.49 | 30.0 | 0.250 | Unverified |
| Mack Hollins | NE vs JAX | 7.47 | 38.1 | 0.196 | Unverified |
| Isaiah Williams | NYJ vs DET | 7.36 | 43.9 | 0.168 | Unverified |
| Keon Coleman | BUF vs LAC | 7.31 | 36.8 | 0.199 | Q |
| Tre Tucker | LV vs NO | 7.26 | 42.2 | 0.172 | Unverified |
| Tyquan Thornton | KC vs MIA | 7.25 | 37.4 | 0.194 | Unverified |
| Kayshon Boutte | HOU vs IND | 7.15 | 46.9 | 0.152 | Unverified |
| Isaac TeSlaa | DET vs NYJ | 7.05 | 42.8 | 0.165 | Unverified |
| Xavier Hutchinson | HOU vs IND | 7.03 | 48.5 | 0.145 | Unverified |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX vs NE | 7.01 | 33.8 | 0.207 | Unverified |
| Jaylin Noel | HOU vs IND | 6.91 | 35.1 | 0.197 | Unverified |
| DJ Moore | BUF vs LAC | 6.79 | 36.1 | 0.188 | Q |
| Jerry Jeudy | CLE vs CAR | 6.79 | 40.1 | 0.169 | Unverified |
| Germie Bernard | PIT vs CIN | 6.52 | 34.1 | 0.192 | Unverified |
| Jalen Nailor | LV vs NO | 6.42 | 40.9 | 0.157 | Unverified |
| Chris Bell | MIA vs KC | 6.34 | 35.7 | 0.177 | Unverified |
| Jauan Jennings | MIN vs TB | 6.31 | 34.1 | 0.185 | Unverified |
| Darnell Mooney | NYG vs TEN | 6.03 | 42.6 | 0.141 | Unverified |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA vs WAS | 6.00 | 35.9 | 0.167 | Unverified |
| Jalen Tolbert | MIA vs KC | 5.91 | 37.0 | 0.160 | Unverified |
| Kendrick Bourne | ARI vs SF | 5.79 | 37.4 | 0.155 | Unverified |
| Antonio Williams | WAS vs SEA | 5.66 | 27.0 | 0.209 | Unverified |
| Laquon Treadwell | IND vs HOU | 5.47 | 35.1 | 0.156 | Unverified |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | MIA vs KC | 5.32 | 29.0 | 0.183 | Unverified |
| Xavier Legette | CAR vs CLE | 5.25 | 32.8 | 0.160 | Q |
| Roman Wilson | PIT vs CIN | 5.13 | 41.6 | 0.123 | Unverified |
| Jack Bech | LV vs NO | 4.88 | 32.0 | 0.152 | Unverified |
| Elic Ayomanor | TEN vs NYG | 4.69 | 30.3 | 0.155 | Unverified |
| Jared Wayne | HOU vs IND | 4.28 | 26.7 | 0.160 | Unverified |
| LaJohntay Wester | BAL vs DAL | 4.14 | 24.1 | 0.172 | Unverified |
| Tory Horton | SEA vs WAS | 3.77 | 19.5 | 0.194 | Unverified |
| Joshua Palmer | BUF vs LAC | 3.70 | 23.1 | 0.160 | Unverified |
| Jalen McMillan | TB vs MIN | 3.60 | 17.7 | 0.203 | Unverified |
| Jacob Cowing | SF vs ARI | 3.19 | 20.6 | 0.155 | Unverified |
| Devontez Walker | BAL vs DAL | 3.13 | 19.1 | 0.164 | Unverified |
| Treylon Burks | WAS vs SEA | 2.94 | 20.7 | 0.142 | Unverified |
| Myles Price | MIN vs TB | 2.90 | 16.8 | 0.172 | Unverified |
| Tez Johnson | TB vs MIN | 2.82 | 16.5 | 0.171 | Unverified |
| Dohnte Meyers | CIN vs PIT | 2.73 | 13.6 | 0.200 | Unverified |
| Colbie Young | CIN vs PIT | 2.30 | 12.0 | 0.192 | Unverified |
| Josh Cameron | JAX vs NE | 2.04 | 12.3 | 0.166 | Unverified |
| Tylan Wallace | CLE vs CAR | 1.98 | 15.0 | 0.132 | Unverified |
| KaVontae Turpin | DAL vs BAL | 1.87 | 9.6 | 0.195 | Unverified |
| Jaylin Lane | WAS vs SEA | 1.86 | 10.9 | 0.170 | Unverified |
| Jonathan Mingo | DAL vs BAL | 1.79 | 12.1 | 0.148 | Unverified |
| Kyle Williams | NE vs JAX | 1.78 | 11.6 | 0.153 | Unverified |
| Travis Hunter | JAX vs NE | 1.77 | 18.0 | 0.098 | Unverified |
| Malik Benson | LV vs NO | 1.73 | 9.8 | 0.177 | Unverified |
| Dareke Young | LV vs NO | 1.70 | 10.0 | 0.169 | Unverified |
| Efton Chism III | NE vs JAX | 1.60 | 9.4 | 0.170 | Unverified |
| Brycen Tremayne | CAR vs CLE | 1.48 | 10.1 | 0.147 | Unverified |
| John Metchie III | CAR vs CLE | 1.47 | 9.2 | 0.161 | Unverified |
| Ben Skowronek | PIT vs CIN | 1.30 | 8.9 | 0.146 | Unverified |
| Jalen Royals | KC vs MIA | 1.25 | 7.8 | 0.161 | Unverified |
| Isaiah Bond | CLE vs CAR | 1.25 | 7.5 | 0.168 | Unverified |
| Chimere Dike | TEN vs NYG | 1.20 | 7.0 | 0.170 | Unverified |
| Simi Fehoko | ARI vs SF | 1.10 | 6.7 | 0.165 | Unverified |
| Cyrus Allen | KC vs MIA | 1.02 | 4.8 | 0.213 | Unverified |
| Derius Davis | LAC vs BUF | 1.01 | 8.4 | 0.120 | Unverified |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | NYG vs TEN | 0.99 | 5.5 | 0.181 | Unverified |
| Ryan Miller | MIA vs KC | 0.75 | 6.5 | 0.115 | Q |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | NO vs LV | 0.73 | 4.3 | 0.171 | Unverified |
| Jalen Brooks | ARI vs SF | 0.50 | 3.4 | 0.149 | Unverified |
| Deion Burks | IND vs HOU | 0.45 | 2.3 | 0.194 | Unverified |
| Ke'Shawn Williams | CIN vs PIT | 0.42 | 2.9 | 0.146 | Unverified |
| Tai Felton | MIN vs TB | 0.38 | 2.4 | 0.161 | Unverified |
| Tay Martin | DET vs NYJ | 0.26 | 1.5 | 0.171 | Unverified |
| Jordan Watkins | SF vs ARI | 0.08 | 1.1 | 0.077 | Unverified |
| Andrei Iosivas | CIN vs PIT | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.128 | OUT |
| Nico Collins | HOU vs IND | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.259 | OUT |
| Alec Pierce | IND vs HOU | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.205 | OUT |
| Ashton Dulin | IND vs HOU | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.162 | OUT |
| Brenen Thompson | LAC vs BUF | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.183 | OUT |
| Caleb Douglas | MIA vs KC | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.197 | OUT |
| Barion Brown | NO vs LV | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.171 | OUT |
| Demarcus Robinson | SF vs ARI | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.180 | OUT |
Fixed projection order, not a sortable comparison tool. DK / snap is rounded for display; calculations use full precision. Scroll the table within its frame on a small screen.
| Player | Matchup | Traina DK | Snaps | DK / snap | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers | LV vs NO | 15.55 | 63.4 | 0.245 | Q |
| Trey McBride | ARI vs SF | 13.69 | 54.8 | 0.250 | Unverified |
| Oronde Gadsden II | LAC vs BUF | 11.61 | 63.4 | 0.183 | Unverified |
| Tyler Warren | IND vs HOU | 11.11 | 55.6 | 0.200 | Unverified |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE vs CAR | 10.59 | 54.6 | 0.194 | Unverified |
| Travis Kelce | KC vs MIA | 10.36 | 53.2 | 0.195 | Unverified |
| Sam LaPorta | DET vs NYJ | 10.14 | 59.8 | 0.169 | Unverified |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF vs LAC | 10.06 | 42.4 | 0.237 | Unverified |
| Mark Andrews | BAL vs DAL | 9.54 | 46.4 | 0.205 | Unverified |
| Hunter Henry | NE vs JAX | 9.45 | 52.5 | 0.180 | Unverified |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU vs IND | 9.22 | 47.2 | 0.195 | Unverified |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL vs BAL | 8.82 | 43.1 | 0.205 | Unverified |
| AJ Barner | SEA vs WAS | 8.25 | 49.9 | 0.165 | Unverified |
| Juwan Johnson | NO vs LV | 8.13 | 43.6 | 0.186 | Unverified |
| Brenton Strange | JAX vs NE | 8.06 | 49.7 | 0.162 | Unverified |
| Cade Otton | TB vs MIN | 8.05 | 58.0 | 0.139 | Unverified |
| Michael Mayer | LV vs NO | 7.84 | 49.2 | 0.160 | Unverified |
| Gunnar Helm | TEN vs NYG | 7.78 | 48.1 | 0.162 | Unverified |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT vs CIN | 7.76 | 44.4 | 0.175 | Unverified |
| George Kittle | SF vs ARI | 7.74 | 35.0 | 0.221 | Unverified |
| Greg Dulcich | MIA vs KC | 7.52 | 39.2 | 0.192 | Unverified |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN vs TB | 6.80 | 44.0 | 0.154 | Unverified |
| Kenyon Sadiq | NYJ vs DET | 6.63 | 45.0 | 0.147 | Unverified |
| Isaiah Likely | NYG vs TEN | 6.48 | 46.4 | 0.140 | Unverified |
| Dawson Knox | BUF vs LAC | 6.18 | 43.0 | 0.144 | Unverified |
| Darren Waller | CAR vs CLE | 5.43 | 26.8 | 0.203 | Unverified |
| Mike Gesicki | CIN vs PIT | 4.81 | 24.9 | 0.193 | Unverified |
| Darnell Washington | PIT vs CIN | 4.73 | 37.1 | 0.128 | Unverified |
| Noah Fant | NO vs LV | 4.68 | 26.2 | 0.178 | Unverified |
| Josh Oliver | MIN vs TB | 4.00 | 34.4 | 0.116 | Unverified |
| Noah Gray | KC vs MIA | 3.93 | 32.6 | 0.121 | Unverified |
| Nate Boerkircher | JAX vs NE | 3.91 | 26.7 | 0.146 | Unverified |
| Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ vs DET | 3.86 | 34.2 | 0.113 | Unverified |
| Tommy Tremble | CAR vs CLE | 3.74 | 34.0 | 0.110 | Unverified |
| Erick All Jr. | CIN vs PIT | 3.60 | 24.8 | 0.145 | Unverified |
| Mitchell Evans | CAR vs CLE | 3.55 | 29.7 | 0.119 | Unverified |
| Ben Sinnott | WAS vs SEA | 3.43 | 31.4 | 0.109 | Unverified |
| Theo Johnson | NYG vs TEN | 3.35 | 23.7 | 0.141 | Unverified |
| Jelani Woods | NYJ vs DET | 3.19 | 21.3 | 0.150 | Unverified |
| Drew Sample | CIN vs PIT | 3.15 | 37.1 | 0.085 | Unverified |
| Luke Farrell | SF vs ARI | 3.15 | 32.7 | 0.096 | Unverified |
| Jackson Hawes | BUF vs LAC | 3.09 | 28.0 | 0.110 | Unverified |
| Will Kacmarek | MIA vs KC | 2.95 | 22.4 | 0.132 | Unverified |
| Durham Smythe | BAL vs DAL | 2.86 | 35.0 | 0.082 | Unverified |
| Ian Thomas | LV vs NO | 2.76 | 26.1 | 0.105 | Unverified |
| Eli Raridon | NE vs JAX | 2.66 | 18.5 | 0.144 | Q |
| Foster Moreau | HOU vs IND | 2.65 | 23.3 | 0.114 | Unverified |
| Brock Wright | DET vs NYJ | 2.45 | 20.3 | 0.121 | Unverified |
| Daniel Bellinger | TEN vs NYG | 2.38 | 23.8 | 0.100 | Unverified |
| Hunter Long | ARI vs SF | 2.29 | 18.4 | 0.124 | Unverified |
| Elijah Higgins | ARI vs SF | 2.24 | 17.0 | 0.132 | Unverified |
| Elijah Arroyo | SEA vs WAS | 2.21 | 15.8 | 0.140 | Unverified |
| Mo Alie-Cox | IND vs HOU | 2.14 | 20.6 | 0.104 | Unverified |
| Blake Whiteheart | CLE vs CAR | 2.09 | 26.6 | 0.079 | Unverified |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | DAL vs BAL | 2.04 | 19.1 | 0.107 | Unverified |
| Luke Schoonmaker | DAL vs BAL | 2.01 | 17.7 | 0.114 | Unverified |
| John Bates | WAS vs SEA | 2.00 | 24.0 | 0.083 | Unverified |
| Quintin Morris | JAX vs NE | 1.85 | 17.4 | 0.106 | Unverified |
| Chris Manhertz | NYG vs TEN | 1.71 | 18.8 | 0.091 | Unverified |
| Drew Ogletree | IND vs HOU | 1.69 | 11.9 | 0.142 | Unverified |
| Brayden Willis | SF vs ARI | 1.67 | 12.4 | 0.135 | Unverified |
| Cade Stover | HOU vs IND | 1.58 | 13.7 | 0.116 | Unverified |
| Nick Kallerup | SEA vs WAS | 1.36 | 13.2 | 0.104 | Unverified |
| Marlin Klein | HOU vs IND | 1.33 | 9.5 | 0.139 | Unverified |
| Eric Saubert | SEA vs WAS | 1.32 | 14.6 | 0.090 | Unverified |
| Oscar Delp | NO vs LV | 1.28 | 9.4 | 0.136 | Unverified |
| Jake Briningstool | KC vs MIA | 1.25 | 8.3 | 0.150 | Unverified |
| Colson Yankoff | WAS vs SEA | 1.09 | 11.2 | 0.097 | Unverified |
| Cameron Latu | NE vs JAX | 0.99 | 10.0 | 0.098 | Unverified |
| Josh Cuevas | BAL vs DAL | 0.92 | 5.9 | 0.155 | Unverified |
| Tyler Conklin | DET vs NYJ | 0.90 | 7.7 | 0.117 | Unverified |
| Payne Durham | TB vs MIN | 0.62 | 8.6 | 0.071 | Unverified |
| Bauer Sharp | TB vs MIN | 0.60 | 3.9 | 0.154 | Unverified |
| Jack Endries | CIN vs PIT | 0.60 | 4.0 | 0.149 | Unverified |
| David Martin-Robinson | TEN vs NYG | 0.57 | 5.3 | 0.108 | Unverified |
| Robert Tonyan | PIT vs CIN | 0.55 | 5.4 | 0.101 | Unverified |
| Carsen Ryan | CLE vs CAR | 0.38 | 2.8 | 0.132 | Unverified |
| Jackson Meeks | DET vs NYJ | 0.24 | 1.6 | 0.152 | Unverified |
| Seydou Traore | MIA vs KC | 0.23 | 1.7 | 0.136 | Unverified |
| Gavin Bartholomew | MIN vs TB | 0.08 | 0.6 | 0.139 | Unverified |
| Charlie Kolar | LAC vs BUF | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.102 | OUT |
| Mason Taylor | NYJ vs DET | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.154 | OUT |
| Chig Okonkwo | WAS vs SEA | 0.00 | 0.0 | 0.178 | OUT |
Fixed projection order, not a sortable comparison tool. DK / snap is rounded for display; calculations use full precision. Scroll the table within its frame on a small screen.
376 of the 671 supplied main-slate player-pool entries have a numeric Traina forecast, including zero exclusions and backups. The remaining 295 entries do not have a usable custom forecast and are not shown as invented zeroes. D/ST is not custom-modeled here; see TAPS for the outside-only defense estimates.
Weights and role assumptions have not been validated as optimal out of sample. These are weekly projections, not promised results or sportsbook betting edges. Final inactives can change the forecast.
Player-stat estimates derived from sportsbook odds.
The 40/30/30 weighted DraftKings blend.
Weekly NFL fantasy and player-stat projections based on a consensus of DraftKings, Bovada and BetOnline odds. Market estimates, de-vig assumptions and missing-stat fillers are clearly separated.
Our sportsbook-based NFL projections translate player prop odds into expected passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, receptions, passing touchdowns, interceptions and touchdowns scored. We use a consensus of DraftKings, Bovada and BetOnline, with equal weight across available books for each statistic.
The same player-stat estimates support weekly fantasy football research and DraftKings DFS projections. We convert the modeled stats to DraftKings points and estimate the probability of reaching the 300-yard passing or 100-yard rushing/receiving bonus. This is a Week 3 main-slate snapshot, not a live odds screen.
Read both sides where available. Over/under prices are converted into implied probabilities. Paired probabilities are normalized to remove the quoted margin using a proportional de-vig model.
A prop line is not automatically an average. Standard and alternate lines inform a fitted yardage or count distribution. Historical dispersion supports thin markets. Its estimated mean becomes the stat projection.
Anytime and multi-touchdown prices inform scoring. Rushing and receiving touchdowns are each worth six DK points, so scored TD is combined. Passing TD remains a separate four-point category. One-sided TD odds use a margin proxy; exact no-vig probabilities are not available from one side alone.
Average books, then apply scoring. Each available sportsbook has equal weight per stat. Missing lines remain visible. These distribution and margin assumptions have not been backtested as optimal.
Market DK is populated only when all position-relevant modeled categories are covered. It excludes fumbles and two-point conversions and uses explicit zero assumptions for unquoted non-QB passing and QB receiving. It is a conditional-on-playing estimate, not an inactive-adjusted lineup recommendation.
Completed DK fills missing categories using the outside stat average, including available fumble/2PT components. It does not reuse Traina points. A dagger (†) identifies estimates with outside information, and the filler column names the categories. Saved OUT/doubtful exclusions display zero in Completed DK. Only 57 players have complete modeled market categories; partial coverage must not be mistaken for a pure sportsbook projection.
| Player | Matchup | Market DK | Completed DK† | Books | Outside fillers | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF vs LAC | 27.25 | 27.16† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL vs DAL | 25.10 | 24.99† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC vs MIA | 22.11 | 22.08† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Brock Purdy | SF vs ARI | 21.73 | 21.66† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Dak Prescott | DAL vs BAL | 21.35 | 21.27† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Tyler Shough | NO vs LV | 20.94 | 20.83† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Jared Goff | DET vs NYJ | 20.11 | 20.07† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX vs NE | 19.73 | 19.63† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Drake Maye | NE vs JAX | 19.59 | 19.46† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Joe Burrow | CIN vs PIT | 18.92 | 18.81† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Justin Herbert | LAC vs BUF | 18.60 | 18.49† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Bryce Young | CAR vs CLE | 18.42 | 18.31† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Kyler Murray | MIN vs TB | 18.00 | 17.88† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU vs IND | 17.90 | 17.79† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Baker Mayfield | TB vs MIN | 17.71 | 17.59† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE vs CAR | 17.38 | 17.26† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Sam Darnold | SEA vs WAS | — | 16.90† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Geno Smith | NYJ vs DET | 16.97 | 16.88† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Malik Willis | MIA vs KC | 16.99 | 16.84† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI vs SF | 16.29 | 16.17† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Daniel Jones | IND vs HOU | 16.13 | 16.02† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Jameis Winston | NYG vs TEN | 14.77 | 14.67† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Kirk Cousins | LV vs NO | — | 14.45† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Cam Ward | TEN vs NYG | 14.28 | 14.16† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT vs CIN | 14.24 | 14.14† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS vs SEA | 13.82 | 13.71† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
Other DK means fumbles, two-point conversions and return TDs when outside inputs supply them. A dash means insufficient data, not zero projected production. Market DK remains conditional even for excluded players.
| Player | Pass yards | Rush yards | Rec yards | Receptions | Pass TD | INT | Scored TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 249.0 | 41.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.90 | 0.55 | 0.87 |
| Lamar Jackson | 246.8 | 47.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.92 | 0.53 | 0.41 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 241.8 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.08 | 0.52 | 0.25 |
| Brock Purdy | 245.3 | 21.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.94 | 0.60 | 0.32 |
| Dak Prescott | 273.3 | 16.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.87 | 0.69 | 0.16 |
| Tyler Shough | 262.3 | 21.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.56 | 0.63 | 0.29 |
| Jared Goff | 268.3 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.12 | 0.50 | 0.07 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 236.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.67 | 0.72 | 0.30 |
| Drake Maye | 229.7 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.40 | 0.75 | 0.30 |
| Joe Burrow | 261.5 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.62 | 0.76 | 0.14 |
| Justin Herbert | 234.8 | 25.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.39 | 0.73 | 0.20 |
| Bryce Young | 232.8 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.45 | 0.59 | 0.19 |
| Kyler Murray | 217.3 | 26.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.38 | 0.76 | 0.24 |
| C.J. Stroud | 246.0 | 14.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.42 | 0.65 | 0.15 |
| Baker Mayfield | 226.8 | 22.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.39 | 0.72 | 0.18 |
| Deshaun Watson | 198.8 | 33.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.25 | 0.70 | 0.25 |
| Sam Darnold | 229.8 | — | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.59 | 0.62 | 0.13 |
| Geno Smith | 235.0 | 15.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.37 | 0.72 | 0.11 |
| Malik Willis | 187.2 | 40.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.05 | 0.73 | 0.28 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 234.6 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.26 | 0.64 | 0.13 |
| Daniel Jones | 219.6 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.28 | 0.72 | 0.15 |
| Jameis Winston | 212.0 | 11.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.18 | 0.94 | 0.16 |
| Kirk Cousins | 220.2 | — | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.36 | 0.77 | 0.06 |
| Cam Ward | 195.7 | 16.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.01 | 0.71 | 0.21 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 225.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.26 | 0.71 | 0.07 |
| Marcus Mariota | 176.8 | 28.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.95 | 0.90 | 0.14 |
Only market-covered means or disclosed position-zero assumptions appear here. Missing stats stay blank. Scored TD is a combined estimate; it is not counted again as separate rushing and receiving touchdowns.
| Player | Matchup | Market DK | Completed DK† | Books | Outside fillers | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET vs NYJ | 28.79 | 28.72† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF vs ARI | 24.07 | 24.02† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC vs MIA | 23.45 | 23.39† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND vs HOU | 21.74 | 21.67† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Derrick Henry | BAL vs DAL | 21.42 | 21.37† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV vs NO | 20.15 | 20.08† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| James Cook III | BUF vs LAC | 20.01 | 19.95† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| De'Von Achane | MIA vs KC | 19.07 | 19.01† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT vs CIN | 19.06 | 19.01† | 3 | Other DK | Q |
| Chase Brown | CIN vs PIT | 19.04 | 18.99† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR vs CLE | 18.20 | 18.14† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Javonte Williams | DAL vs BAL | 18.17 | 18.11† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Breece Hall | NYJ vs DET | 17.77 | 17.70† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Bucky Irving | TB vs MIN | 16.03 | 15.96† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE vs CAR | 15.89 | 15.82† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC vs BUF | 15.70 | 15.62† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG vs TEN | 15.10 | 15.05† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN vs TB | 14.92 | 14.86† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs NE | 13.30 | 13.27† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| David Montgomery | HOU vs IND | 13.27 | 13.21† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE vs JAX | 12.58 | 12.51† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Jeremiyah Love | ARI vs SF | 12.57 | 12.50† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Tony Pollard | TEN vs NYG | 12.40 | 12.34† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Jadarian Price | SEA vs WAS | — | 12.26† | 3 | Rec yards, Receptions, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Alvin Kamara | NO vs LV | 11.85 | 11.83† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| TreVeyon Henderson | NE vs JAX | 11.45 | 11.41† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | NO vs LV | 11.02 | 10.96† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Woody Marks | HOU vs IND | 9.51 | 9.49† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Tyler Allgeier | ARI vs SF | — | 9.45† | 3 | Receptions, Other DK | Unverified |
| Tyjae Spears | TEN vs NYG | 9.22 | 9.21† | 3 | Other DK | Q |
| Rachaad White | WAS vs SEA | — | 8.94† | 3 | Receptions, Other DK | Unverified |
| Emmett Johnson | KC vs MIA | 8.58 | 8.58† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS vs SEA | — | 8.43† | 3 | Rec yards, Receptions, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Kenny Gainwell | TB vs MIN | 8.37 | 8.36† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Justice Hill | BAL vs DAL | 7.81 | 7.82† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Kaelon Black | SF vs ARI | — | 7.15† | 3 | Rec yards, Receptions, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA vs WAS | — | 7.13† | 3 | Rec yards, Receptions, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Samaje Perine | CIN vs PIT | 6.54 | 6.56† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Keaton Mitchell | LAC vs BUF | — | 5.52† | 3 | Rec yards, Receptions, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ vs DET | — | 5.43† | 3 | Rec yards, Receptions, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX vs NE | — | 5.38† | 3 | Rec yards, Receptions, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| George Holani | SEA vs WAS | — | 5.19† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Mike Washington Jr. | LV vs NO | — | 4.75† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Devin Singletary | NYG vs TEN | — | 4.63† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Travis Homer | PIT vs CIN | — | 4.40† | 1 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Raheim Sanders | CLE vs CAR | — | 4.25† | 3 | Rec yards, Receptions, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| AJ Dillon | CAR vs CLE | — | 4.09† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| DeeJay Dallas | MIN vs TB | — | 3.75† | 2 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Ollie Gordon II | MIA vs KC | — | 3.60† | 3 | Rec yards, Receptions, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Sione Vaki | DET vs NYJ | — | 3.56† | 3 | Rec yards, Receptions, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Eli Heidenreich | PIT vs CIN | — | 3.45† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Ty Johnson | BUF vs LAC | — | 3.36† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Emari Demercado | DAL vs BAL | — | 3.35† | 3 | Rec yards, Receptions, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Najee Harris | NYG vs TEN | — | 3.09† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Seth McGowan | IND vs HOU | — | 3.07† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF vs ARI | — | 2.81† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Ray Davis | BUF vs LAC | — | 2.67† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Kaytron Allen | WAS vs SEA | — | 2.30† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Demond Claiborne | MIN vs TB | — | 2.22† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| CJ Donaldson | NO vs LV | — | 2.10† | 2 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Kimani Vidal | LAC vs BUF | — | 2.07† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Isaiah Davis | NYJ vs DET | — | 2.01† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | JAX vs NE | — | 1.98† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Brashard Smith | KC vs MIA | — | 1.92† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Nick Singleton | TEN vs NYG | — | 1.91† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Hunter Luepke | DAL vs BAL | — | 1.85† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG vs TEN | — | 1.77† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Ameer Abdullah | JAX vs NE | — | 1.71† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Connor Heyward | LV vs NO | — | 1.41† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Sean Tucker | TB vs MIN | — | 1.38† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Kendre Miller | NO vs LV | — | 1.34† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | CLE vs CAR | — | 1.34† | 2 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jacob Saylors | DET vs NYJ | — | 1.26† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Julius Chestnut | TEN vs NYG | — | 1.18† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Tahj Brooks | CIN vs PIT | — | 1.17† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Brady Russell | SEA vs WAS | — | 1.13† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| DJ Giddens | IND vs HOU | — | 1.12† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Bam Knight | ARI vs SF | — | 1.05† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Rasheen Ali | BAL vs DAL | — | 1.01† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| British Brooks | HOU vs IND | — | 0.94† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jordan James | SF vs ARI | — | 0.91† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Corey Kiner | NE vs JAX | — | 0.89† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Dylan Laube | LV vs NO | — | 0.85† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Michael Burton | CLE vs CAR | — | 0.78† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Alec Ingold | LAC vs BUF | — | 0.71† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Reggie Gilliam | NE vs JAX | — | 0.69† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Riley Nowakowski | PIT vs CIN | — | 0.62† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| DJ Herman | MIA vs KC | — | 0.58† | 2 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Max Bredeson | MIN vs TB | — | 0.50† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Patrick Ricard | NYG vs TEN | — | 0.47† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Andrew Beck | NYJ vs DET | — | 0.43† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
Other DK means fumbles, two-point conversions and return TDs when outside inputs supply them. A dash means insufficient data, not zero projected production. Market DK remains conditional even for excluded players.
| Player | Pass yards | Rush yards | Rec yards | Receptions | Pass TD | INT | Scored TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 0.0 | 102.4 | 44.3 | 4.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.33 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 0.0 | 65.3 | 49.5 | 4.8 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.17 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 0.0 | 93.3 | 32.0 | 3.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 0.0 | 90.6 | 30.6 | 3.3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Derrick Henry | 0.0 | 98.3 | 18.1 | 1.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.16 |
| Ashton Jeanty | 0.0 | 77.5 | 31.2 | 4.1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.72 |
| James Cook III | 0.0 | 90.6 | 19.4 | 2.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.98 |
| De'Von Achane | 0.0 | 68.7 | 37.4 | 3.8 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Jaylen Warren | 0.0 | 67.8 | 35.3 | 4.2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Chase Brown | 0.0 | 71.5 | 29.9 | 3.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 0.0 | 78.7 | 21.8 | 2.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Javonte Williams | 0.0 | 66.1 | 24.4 | 3.1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Breece Hall | 0.0 | 65.6 | 30.8 | 3.4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Bucky Irving | 0.0 | 65.4 | 25.8 | 2.9 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Quinshon Judkins | 0.0 | 68.1 | 20.2 | 2.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Omarion Hampton | 0.0 | 66.4 | 18.3 | 2.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.78 |
| Cam Skattebo | 0.0 | 64.7 | 20.2 | 2.2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | 0.0 | 60.8 | 21.1 | 2.1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Bhayshul Tuten | 0.0 | 61.0 | 17.5 | 1.8 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| David Montgomery | 0.0 | 55.8 | 16.1 | 1.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 0.0 | 44.7 | 21.5 | 2.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Jeremiyah Love | 0.0 | 45.1 | 22.6 | 2.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Tony Pollard | 0.0 | 59.0 | 14.2 | 1.4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Jadarian Price | 0.0 | 59.6 | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Alvin Kamara | 0.0 | 36.9 | 22.2 | 3.2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| TreVeyon Henderson | 0.0 | 49.9 | 16.6 | 1.7 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | 0.0 | 45.4 | 12.9 | 1.8 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Woody Marks | 0.0 | 35.0 | 19.3 | 2.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 0.0 | 39.5 | 15.1 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Tyjae Spears | 0.0 | 24.7 | 26.0 | 2.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Rachaad White | 0.0 | 24.2 | 24.5 | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Emmett Johnson | 0.0 | 35.2 | 17.9 | 1.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 0.0 | 47.1 | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 0.0 | 24.5 | 19.4 | 2.1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Justice Hill | 0.0 | 19.5 | 21.9 | 2.3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Kaelon Black | 0.0 | 39.4 | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 0.0 | 37.3 | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Samaje Perine | 0.0 | 19.5 | 15.6 | 1.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Keaton Mitchell | 0.0 | 20.4 | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Braelon Allen | 0.0 | 23.3 | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 0.0 | 28.2 | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| George Holani | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Mike Washington Jr. | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Devin Singletary | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Travis Homer | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Raheim Sanders | 0.0 | 12.4 | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| AJ Dillon | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| DeeJay Dallas | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 0.0 | 13.6 | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Sione Vaki | 0.0 | 14.6 | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Eli Heidenreich | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Ty Johnson | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Emari Demercado | 0.0 | 15.0 | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Najee Harris | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Seth McGowan | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Kyle Juszczyk | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Ray Davis | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Kaytron Allen | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Demond Claiborne | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| CJ Donaldson | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Kimani Vidal | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Isaiah Davis | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Brashard Smith | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nick Singleton | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Hunter Luepke | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Connor Heyward | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Sean Tucker | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Kendre Miller | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jacob Saylors | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Julius Chestnut | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Tahj Brooks | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Brady Russell | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| DJ Giddens | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Bam Knight | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Rasheen Ali | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| British Brooks | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jordan James | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Corey Kiner | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Dylan Laube | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Michael Burton | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Alec Ingold | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Reggie Gilliam | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Riley Nowakowski | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| DJ Herman | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Max Bredeson | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Patrick Ricard | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Andrew Beck | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
Only market-covered means or disclosed position-zero assumptions appear here. Missing stats stay blank. Scored TD is a combined estimate; it is not counted again as separate rushing and receiving touchdowns.
| Player | Matchup | Market DK | Completed DK† | Books | Outside fillers | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA vs WAS | — | 23.05† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET vs NYJ | — | 21.89† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN vs PIT | — | 20.58† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL vs BAL | — | 20.44† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Chris Olave | NO vs LV | — | 19.13† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Zay Flowers | BAL vs DAL | — | 18.14† | 1 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Q |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN vs TB | — | 18.13† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ vs DET | — | 17.71† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Parker Washington | JAX vs NE | — | 17.05† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| George Pickens | DAL vs BAL | — | 16.78† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR vs CLE | — | 15.79† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC vs BUF | — | 15.18† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jalen Coker | CAR vs CLE | — | 14.86† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Q |
| Rashee Rice | KC vs MIA | — | 14.55† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jameson Williams | DET vs NYJ | — | 14.51† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Tee Higgins | CIN vs PIT | — | 14.50† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Malik Nabers | NYG vs TEN | — | 14.39† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Mike Evans | SF vs ARI | — | 14.39† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Q |
| Josh Downs | IND vs HOU | — | 13.62† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| DJ Moore | BUF vs LAC | — | 13.50† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Q |
| DK Metcalf | PIT vs CIN | — | 13.43† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB vs MIN | — | 13.06† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF vs ARI | — | 12.61† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL vs DAL | — | 12.48† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Devaughn Vele | NO vs LV | — | 12.31† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Denzel Boston | CLE vs CAR | — | 12.29† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Michael Wilson | ARI vs SF | — | 12.27† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF vs LAC | — | 11.94† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Adonai Mitchell | NYJ vs DET | — | 11.90† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Q |
| Xavier Worthy | KC vs MIA | — | 11.62† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Romeo Doubs | NE vs JAX | — | 11.24† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Tre Tucker | LV vs NO | — | 11.13† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| KC Concepcion Jr. | CLE vs CAR | 11.01 | 11.01† | 3 | Other DK | Unverified |
| Malik Washington | MIA vs KC | — | 10.67† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS vs SEA | — | 10.58† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Xavier Hutchinson | HOU vs IND | — | 10.35† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Stefon Diggs | WAS vs SEA | — | 10.29† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jordan Addison | MIN vs TB | — | 10.22† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX vs NE | — | 10.19† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC vs BUF | — | 10.12† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Carnell Tate | TEN vs NYG | — | 10.06† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jakobi Meyers | JAX vs NE | — | 10.01† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | TB vs MIN | — | 9.92† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Kayshon Boutte | HOU vs IND | — | 9.77† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Keenan Allen | IND vs HOU | — | 9.70† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN vs NYG | — | 9.46† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Mack Hollins | NE vs JAX | — | 9.27† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Ryan Flournoy | DAL vs BAL | — | 8.81† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Rashid Shaheed | SEA vs WAS | — | 8.74† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| DeMario Douglas | NE vs JAX | — | 8.62† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI vs SF | — | 8.36† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Tre' Harris | LAC vs BUF | — | 8.24† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jaylin Noel | HOU vs IND | — | 7.97† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | PIT vs CIN | — | 7.57† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Q |
| Isaiah Williams | NYJ vs DET | — | 7.49† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Kendrick Bourne | ARI vs SF | — | 7.12† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Ted Hurst III | TB vs MIN | — | 6.94† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jalen Nailor | LV vs NO | — | 6.92† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA vs WAS | — | 6.81† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Roman Wilson | PIT vs CIN | — | 6.69† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Malachi Fields | NYG vs TEN | — | 6.67† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| LaJohntay Wester | BAL vs DAL | — | 6.62† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Tyquan Thornton | KC vs MIA | — | 6.11† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jerry Jeudy | CLE vs CAR | — | 6.08† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Chris Moore | BAL vs DAL | — | 6.05† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Joshua Palmer | BUF vs LAC | — | 5.77† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Chris Bell | MIA vs KC | — | 5.68† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Keon Coleman | BUF vs LAC | — | 5.45† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Q |
| Darnell Mooney | NYG vs TEN | — | 5.40† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jack Bech | LV vs NO | — | 5.39† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jalen McMillan | TB vs MIN | — | 5.24† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Antonio Williams | WAS vs SEA | — | 5.24† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Bryce Lance | NO vs LV | — | 5.19† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Germie Bernard | PIT vs CIN | — | 5.12† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Isaac TeSlaa | DET vs NYJ | — | 5.09† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Laquon Treadwell | IND vs HOU | — | 5.01† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jauan Jennings | MIN vs TB | — | 5.01† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Darius Slayton | IND vs HOU | — | 5.00† | 2 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | MIA vs KC | — | 4.97† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Xavier Legette | CAR vs CLE | — | 4.93† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Q |
| Jared Wayne | HOU vs IND | — | 4.90† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Calvin Ridley | TEN vs NYG | — | 4.80† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Elic Ayomanor | TEN vs NYG | — | 4.49† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Kyle Williams | NE vs JAX | — | 4.10† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jacob Cowing | SF vs ARI | — | 3.48† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Dyami Brown | WAS vs SEA | — | 3.48† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Dohnte Meyers | CIN vs PIT | — | 3.44† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Devontez Walker | BAL vs DAL | — | 3.43† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Malik McClain | NYJ vs DET | — | 3.38† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Colbie Young | CIN vs PIT | — | 3.29† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Tory Horton | SEA vs WAS | — | 3.05† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| KaVontae Turpin | DAL vs BAL | — | 2.75† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Travis Hunter | JAX vs NE | — | 2.68† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| KhaDarel Hodge | SF vs ARI | — | 2.61† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Chimere Dike | TEN vs NYG | — | 2.47† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Ryan Miller | MIA vs KC | — | 2.46† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Q |
| Tez Johnson | TB vs MIN | — | 2.42† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Cyrus Allen | KC vs MIA | — | 2.36† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jalen Royals | KC vs MIA | — | 2.13† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Malik Benson | LV vs NO | — | 2.02† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Isaiah Bond | CLE vs CAR | — | 1.97† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jalen Tolbert | MIA vs KC | — | 1.95† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| John Metchie III | CAR vs CLE | — | 1.95† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Brycen Tremayne | CAR vs CLE | — | 1.66† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Derius Davis | LAC vs BUF | — | 1.65† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Tai Felton | MIN vs TB | — | 1.53† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | NYG vs TEN | — | 1.36† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Josh Cameron | JAX vs NE | — | 1.36† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Tay Martin | DET vs NYJ | — | 1.32† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Dareke Young | LV vs NO | — | 1.31† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Efton Chism III | NE vs JAX | — | 1.30† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Elijah Sarratt | BAL vs DAL | — | 1.17† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Skyler Bell | BUF vs LAC | — | 1.16† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Tylan Wallace | CLE vs CAR | — | 1.16† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jonathan Mingo | DAL vs BAL | — | 1.06† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jaylin Lane | WAS vs SEA | — | 1.03† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Simi Fehoko | ARI vs SF | — | 1.01† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jalen Brooks | ARI vs SF | — | 0.96† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jordan Watkins | SF vs ARI | — | 0.95† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Kameron Johnson | TB vs MIN | — | 0.94† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Deion Burks | IND vs HOU | — | 0.92† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Ben Skowronek | PIT vs CIN | — | 0.85† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Myles Price | MIN vs TB | — | 0.82† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Malachi Corley | CLE vs CAR | — | 0.82† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Nikko Remigio | KC vs MIA | — | 0.80† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Devin Duvernay | ARI vs SF | — | 0.80† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Treylon Burks | WAS vs SEA | — | 0.76† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Barion Brown | NO vs LV | — | 0.00† | 1 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | OUT |
| Kaden Wetjen | PIT vs CIN | — | 0.73† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Braxton Berrios | NYG vs TEN | — | 0.66† | 2 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Tom Kennedy | DET vs NYJ | — | 0.62† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Camden Brown | DAL vs BAL | — | 0.52† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Ke'Shawn Williams | CIN vs PIT | — | 0.51† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Luke McCaffrey | WAS vs SEA | — | 0.47† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| CJ Williams | JAX vs NE | — | — | 3 | No additional stat filler | Unverified |
Other DK means fumbles, two-point conversions and return TDs when outside inputs supply them. A dash means insufficient data, not zero projected production. Market DK remains conditional even for excluded players.
| Player | Pass yards | Rush yards | Rec yards | Receptions | Pass TD | INT | Scored TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 0.0 | — | 106.9 | 6.7 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 0.0 | — | 91.7 | 7.1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 0.0 | — | 89.0 | 7.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 0.0 | — | 90.7 | 6.7 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Chris Olave | 0.0 | — | 89.7 | 6.1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Zay Flowers | 0.0 | — | 78.4 | 5.3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Justin Jefferson | 0.0 | — | 82.0 | 6.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Garrett Wilson | 0.0 | — | 82.9 | 6.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Parker Washington | 0.0 | — | 78.5 | 5.3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| George Pickens | 0.0 | — | 75.5 | 5.4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 0.0 | — | 75.2 | 4.9 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Ladd McConkey | 0.0 | — | 71.5 | 5.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Jalen Coker | 0.0 | — | 69.5 | 5.1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Rashee Rice | 0.0 | — | 60.1 | 4.4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Jameson Williams | 0.0 | — | 67.6 | 4.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Tee Higgins | 0.0 | — | 67.1 | 4.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Malik Nabers | 0.0 | — | 68.4 | 4.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Mike Evans | 0.0 | — | 64.5 | 4.3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Josh Downs | 0.0 | — | 62.0 | 4.9 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| DJ Moore | 0.0 | — | 60.6 | 3.9 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| DK Metcalf | 0.0 | — | 61.8 | 4.4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Emeka Egbuka | 0.0 | — | 60.9 | 4.2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 0.0 | — | 48.7 | 4.1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Rashod Bateman | 0.0 | — | 55.6 | 3.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Devaughn Vele | 0.0 | — | 58.9 | 4.2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Denzel Boston | 0.0 | — | 59.4 | 3.7 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Michael Wilson | 0.0 | — | 58.0 | 4.2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Khalil Shakir | 0.0 | — | 49.8 | 4.2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Adonai Mitchell | 0.0 | — | 59.0 | 3.9 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Xavier Worthy | 0.0 | — | 47.3 | 3.7 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Romeo Doubs | 0.0 | — | 55.0 | 3.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Tre Tucker | 0.0 | — | 51.0 | 3.7 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| KC Concepcion Jr. | 0.0 | 8.7 | 42.1 | 4.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Malik Washington | 0.0 | — | 46.9 | 3.8 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Terry McLaurin | 0.0 | — | 50.4 | 3.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 0.0 | — | 48.0 | 3.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Stefon Diggs | 0.0 | — | 45.4 | 4.1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Jordan Addison | 0.0 | — | 47.3 | 3.3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | 0.0 | — | 46.6 | 3.3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Quentin Johnston | 0.0 | — | 47.2 | 3.2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Carnell Tate | 0.0 | — | 47.7 | 3.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 0.0 | — | 43.1 | 3.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 0.0 | — | 45.6 | 3.4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Kayshon Boutte | 0.0 | — | 47.9 | 2.8 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Keenan Allen | 0.0 | — | 43.4 | 3.7 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 0.0 | — | 42.2 | 3.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Mack Hollins | 0.0 | — | 43.3 | 3.2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Ryan Flournoy | 0.0 | — | 38.9 | 3.3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 0.0 | — | 37.4 | 2.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| DeMario Douglas | 0.0 | — | 38.4 | 3.2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 0.0 | — | 42.7 | 2.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Tre' Harris | 0.0 | — | 39.6 | 2.8 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Jaylin Noel | 0.0 | — | 37.6 | 2.4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 0.0 | — | 32.6 | 2.9 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Isaiah Williams | 0.0 | — | 32.1 | 2.8 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 0.0 | — | 34.2 | 2.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Ted Hurst III | 0.0 | — | 31.3 | 2.4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Jalen Nailor | 0.0 | — | 32.1 | 2.4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Cooper Kupp | 0.0 | — | 29.5 | 2.4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Roman Wilson | 0.0 | — | 29.8 | 2.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Malachi Fields | 0.0 | — | 31.7 | 2.2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| LaJohntay Wester | 0.0 | — | 27.4 | 2.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Tyquan Thornton | 0.0 | — | 30.7 | 1.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 0.0 | — | 28.8 | 1.9 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Chris Moore | 0.0 | — | 29.1 | 1.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Joshua Palmer | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Chris Bell | 0.0 | — | 29.1 | 1.7 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Keon Coleman | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Darnell Mooney | 0.0 | — | 28.1 | 1.7 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jack Bech | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Jalen McMillan | 0.0 | — | 24.2 | 1.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Antonio Williams | 0.0 | — | 22.4 | 2.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Bryce Lance | 0.0 | — | 23.6 | 1.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Germie Bernard | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 0.0 | — | 23.4 | 1.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Laquon Treadwell | 0.0 | — | 24.7 | 1.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Jauan Jennings | 0.0 | — | 21.9 | 1.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Darius Slayton | 0.0 | — | 22.8 | 1.4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | 0.0 | — | 24.1 | 1.7 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Xavier Legette | 0.0 | — | 21.3 | 1.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Jared Wayne | 0.0 | — | 24.0 | 1.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Calvin Ridley | 0.0 | — | 24.6 | 1.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 0.0 | — | 21.4 | 1.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Kyle Williams | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jacob Cowing | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Dyami Brown | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Dohnte Meyers | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Devontez Walker | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Malik McClain | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Colbie Young | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Tory Horton | 0.0 | — | 12.0 | 1.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Travis Hunter | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Chimere Dike | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Ryan Miller | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Tez Johnson | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Cyrus Allen | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jalen Royals | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Malik Benson | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Isaiah Bond | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| John Metchie III | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Brycen Tremayne | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Derius Davis | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Tai Felton | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Josh Cameron | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Tay Martin | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Dareke Young | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Efton Chism III | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Elijah Sarratt | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Skyler Bell | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Tylan Wallace | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jaylin Lane | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Simi Fehoko | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jalen Brooks | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jordan Watkins | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Kameron Johnson | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Deion Burks | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ben Skowronek | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Myles Price | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Malachi Corley | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Nikko Remigio | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Devin Duvernay | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Treylon Burks | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Barion Brown | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Kaden Wetjen | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Braxton Berrios | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Tom Kennedy | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Camden Brown | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ke'Shawn Williams | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Luke McCaffrey | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| CJ Williams | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
Only market-covered means or disclosed position-zero assumptions appear here. Missing stats stay blank. Scored TD is a combined estimate; it is not counted again as separate rushing and receiving touchdowns.
| Player | Matchup | Market DK | Completed DK† | Books | Outside fillers | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | ARI vs SF | — | 18.47† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF vs LAC | — | 14.61† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU vs IND | — | 14.51† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Travis Kelce | KC vs MIA | — | 14.20† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| George Kittle | SF vs ARI | — | 13.33† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Sam LaPorta | DET vs NYJ | — | 13.00† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Mark Andrews | BAL vs DAL | — | 12.97† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Tyler Warren | IND vs HOU | — | 12.92† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Brock Bowers | LV vs NO | — | 12.72† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Q |
| Hunter Henry | NE vs JAX | — | 11.78† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE vs CAR | — | 10.95† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Isaiah Likely | NYG vs TEN | — | 10.90† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Oronde Gadsden II | LAC vs BUF | — | 10.45† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT vs CIN | — | 10.20† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Juwan Johnson | NO vs LV | — | 9.80† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL vs BAL | — | 9.51† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN vs TB | — | 9.23† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Brenton Strange | JAX vs NE | — | 8.74† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Cade Otton | TB vs MIN | — | 8.35† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Kenyon Sadiq | NYJ vs DET | — | 8.17† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Mike Gesicki | CIN vs PIT | — | 7.52† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| AJ Barner | SEA vs WAS | — | 7.37† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Greg Dulcich | MIA vs KC | — | 6.96† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Darren Waller | CAR vs CLE | — | 6.93† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Gunnar Helm | TEN vs NYG | — | 6.67† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Michael Mayer | LV vs NO | — | 6.05† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Darnell Washington | PIT vs CIN | — | 4.90† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Tommy Tremble | CAR vs CLE | — | 4.42† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Dawson Knox | BUF vs LAC | — | 4.17† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Josh Oliver | MIN vs TB | — | 4.15† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Noah Fant | NO vs LV | — | 3.80† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Chig Okonkwo | WAS vs SEA | — | 0.00† | 1 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | OUT |
| Ben Sinnott | WAS vs SEA | — | 3.43† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ vs DET | — | 3.42† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Theo Johnson | NYG vs TEN | — | 3.33† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Noah Gray | KC vs MIA | — | 3.27† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Foster Moreau | HOU vs IND | — | 3.00† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Drew Sample | CIN vs PIT | — | 2.88† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Erick All Jr. | CIN vs PIT | — | 2.80† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Elijah Arroyo | SEA vs WAS | — | 2.74† | 3 | Rush yards, Rush bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Durham Smythe | BAL vs DAL | — | 2.67† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| John Bates | WAS vs SEA | — | 2.66† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Mitchell Evans | CAR vs CLE | — | 2.57† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Eli Raridon | NE vs JAX | — | 2.34† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Q |
| Colson Yankoff | WAS vs SEA | — | 2.32† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Nate Boerkircher | JAX vs NE | — | 2.24† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Daniel Bellinger | TEN vs NYG | — | 2.19† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Will Kacmarek | MIA vs KC | — | 2.13† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Luke Farrell | SF vs ARI | — | 2.03† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Brock Wright | DET vs NYJ | — | 1.99† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Oscar Delp | NO vs LV | — | 1.96† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Blake Whiteheart | CLE vs CAR | — | 1.93† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Elijah Higgins | ARI vs SF | — | 1.91† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Marlin Klein | HOU vs IND | — | 1.85† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jackson Hawes | BUF vs LAC | — | 1.80† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | DAL vs BAL | — | 1.78† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Matt Hibner | BAL vs DAL | — | 1.70† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Luke Schoonmaker | DAL vs BAL | — | 1.66† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jelani Woods | NYJ vs DET | — | 1.63† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Mo Alie-Cox | IND vs HOU | — | 1.62† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jared Wiley | KC vs MIA | — | 1.52† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Quintin Morris | JAX vs NE | — | 1.46† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Hunter Long | ARI vs SF | — | 1.38† | 2 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Cade Stover | HOU vs IND | — | 1.37† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Drew Ogletree | IND vs HOU | — | 1.32† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Josh Cuevas | BAL vs DAL | — | 1.23† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Eric Saubert | SEA vs WAS | — | 1.08† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Payne Durham | TB vs MIN | — | 1.03† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Ian Thomas | LV vs NO | — | 1.02† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Chris Manhertz | NYG vs TEN | — | 1.02† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Carsen Ryan | CLE vs CAR | — | 1.01† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | CAR vs CLE | — | 0.97† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Seydou Traore | MIA vs KC | — | 0.95† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jackson Meeks | DET vs NYJ | — | 0.92† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Thomas Fidone II | NYG vs TEN | — | 0.87† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Robert Tonyan | PIT vs CIN | — | 0.86† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Cameron Latu | NE vs JAX | — | 0.86† | 2 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| David Martin-Robinson | TEN vs NYG | — | 0.83† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Bauer Sharp | TB vs MIN | — | 0.79† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Tanner Koziol | JAX vs NE | — | 0.72† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jake Briningstool | KC vs MIA | — | 0.67† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Kylen Granson | TEN vs NYG | — | 0.62† | 1 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Justin Joly | MIA vs KC | — | 0.61† | 2 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Gavin Bartholomew | MIN vs TB | — | 0.59† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Tyler Conklin | DET vs NYJ | — | 0.57† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Brevin Jordan | HOU vs IND | — | 0.47† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Jack Endries | CIN vs PIT | — | 0.45† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Tanner Arkin | NE vs JAX | — | 0.40† | 1 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Ko Kieft | TB vs MIN | — | 0.31† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Feleipe Franks | CAR vs CLE | — | 0.22† | 3 | Rush yards, Rec yards, Receptions, Rush bonus DK, Rec bonus DK, Other DK | Unverified |
| Brayden Willis | SF vs ARI | — | — | 3 | No additional stat filler | Unverified |
| Nick Kallerup | SEA vs WAS | — | — | 3 | No additional stat filler | Unverified |
| Treyton Welch | NO vs LV | — | — | 2 | No additional stat filler | Unverified |
| Keleki Latu | BUF vs LAC | — | — | 3 | No additional stat filler | Unverified |
Other DK means fumbles, two-point conversions and return TDs when outside inputs supply them. A dash means insufficient data, not zero projected production. Market DK remains conditional even for excluded players.
| Player | Pass yards | Rush yards | Rec yards | Receptions | Pass TD | INT | Scored TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 0.0 | — | 78.4 | 7.2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 0.0 | — | 68.1 | 4.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Dalton Schultz | 0.0 | — | 62.5 | 5.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Travis Kelce | 0.0 | — | 60.5 | 4.6 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| George Kittle | 0.0 | — | 57.6 | 4.3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Sam LaPorta | 0.0 | — | 54.7 | 4.7 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Mark Andrews | 0.0 | — | 47.7 | 4.3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Tyler Warren | 0.0 | — | 53.7 | 4.8 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Brock Bowers | 0.0 | — | 56.6 | 4.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Hunter Henry | 0.0 | — | 51.5 | 4.2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 0.0 | — | 45.7 | 4.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Isaiah Likely | 0.0 | — | 49.1 | 4.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Oronde Gadsden II | 0.0 | — | 47.2 | 3.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 0.0 | — | 45.7 | 4.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Juwan Johnson | 0.0 | — | 43.8 | 3.4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Jake Ferguson | 0.0 | — | 36.5 | 3.8 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 0.0 | — | 37.7 | 3.7 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Brenton Strange | 0.0 | — | 35.3 | 3.3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Cade Otton | 0.0 | — | 34.8 | 3.2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Kenyon Sadiq | 0.0 | — | 35.0 | 3.1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Mike Gesicki | 0.0 | — | 33.3 | 2.8 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| AJ Barner | 0.0 | — | 28.3 | 2.7 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Greg Dulcich | 0.0 | — | 30.5 | 2.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Darren Waller | 0.0 | — | 28.0 | 2.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Gunnar Helm | 0.0 | — | 27.5 | 2.7 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Michael Mayer | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Darnell Washington | 0.0 | — | 21.6 | 1.8 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Tommy Tremble | 0.0 | — | 17.2 | 1.8 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Dawson Knox | 0.0 | — | 17.4 | 1.4 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Josh Oliver | 0.0 | — | 17.8 | 1.5 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Noah Fant | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Ben Sinnott | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jeremy Ruckert | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Theo Johnson | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Noah Gray | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Foster Moreau | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Drew Sample | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Erick All Jr. | 0.0 | — | 10.6 | 1.1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Elijah Arroyo | 0.0 | — | 11.7 | 0.8 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Durham Smythe | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| John Bates | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Mitchell Evans | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Eli Raridon | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Colson Yankoff | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Nate Boerkircher | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Will Kacmarek | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Luke Farrell | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Brock Wright | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Oscar Delp | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Blake Whiteheart | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Elijah Higgins | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Marlin Klein | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jackson Hawes | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Matt Hibner | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jelani Woods | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jared Wiley | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Quintin Morris | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Hunter Long | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Cade Stover | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Drew Ogletree | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Josh Cuevas | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Eric Saubert | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Payne Durham | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ian Thomas | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Chris Manhertz | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Carsen Ryan | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Seydou Traore | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jackson Meeks | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Thomas Fidone II | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Robert Tonyan | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Cameron Latu | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| David Martin-Robinson | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Bauer Sharp | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Tanner Koziol | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jake Briningstool | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Kylen Granson | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Justin Joly | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Gavin Bartholomew | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Tyler Conklin | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Brevin Jordan | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jack Endries | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Tanner Arkin | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ko Kieft | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Feleipe Franks | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Brayden Willis | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nick Kallerup | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Treyton Welch | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Keleki Latu | 0.0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Only market-covered means or disclosed position-zero assumptions appear here. Missing stats stay blank. Scored TD is a combined estimate; it is not counted again as separate rushing and receiving touchdowns.
Are these DraftKings DFS projections? They are estimates in DraftKings Classic scoring, derived from odds and labeled missing-stat assumptions. They are not official DraftKings fantasy projections, ownership predictions or lineup recommendations.
Can I use the stat projections for fantasy football? Yes, the yardage, reception and touchdown estimates can inform start/sit comparisons. The DK point totals are full-PPR with bonuses, so they are not directly interchangeable with standard or half-PPR points.
Which sportsbooks are included? DraftKings, Bovada and BetOnline. A player may have quotes from fewer than all three, and each statistic may have different coverage.
When were the Week 3 odds collected? September 25, 2026 at about 10:22 PM Pacific. This saved page does not automatically follow line changes, new markets or injury news.
Is a projection above a prop line automatically a bet? No. The price, outcome distribution, uncertainty and current market all matter. A consensus built from those same odds is not independent evidence of a betting edge.
Our snap-based NFL fantasy model.
The 40/30/30 weighted DraftKings blend.
Traina Aggregate Projection Score: our 40% model, 30% sportsbook and 30% outside-consensus blend, expressed in expected DraftKings points.
TAPS brings three perspectives into one weekly NFL DFS projection: the Traina snap-based model, player-stat expectations derived from sportsbook odds, and a normalized outside fantasy-projection consensus. It is our weighted projection page, separate from the Traina-only and sportsbook-only views.
TAPS = 0.40 × Traina + 0.30 × sportsbook bucket + 0.30 × outside consensus when all three are available. Higher TAPS means more expected DraftKings points, not better accuracy or necessarily better salary value.
Our custom model gets 40% by default. Preseason consensus efficiency, current snap share and projected team volume drive the forecast. Traina is not counted again as an outside provider.
DraftKings, Bovada and BetOnline supply the market estimates. Missing sportsbook categories use outside stat averages, never Traina again. Consequently the nominal 30% book bucket can include outside information; it is not always a pure market forecast.
PFF, Footballguys, FantasyPros, RotoBaller and RotoGrinders. Each available provider counts once. Duplicate PFF exports and overlapping Footballguys analyst/consensus rows are removed. RotoBaller’s rounded half-PPR conversion is approximate. Different providers may themselves share inputs.
Available weights are renormalized, not replaced with zero projections. Without books, Traina/outside becomes 57.14%/42.86%. Without Traina, books/outside becomes 50%/50%. D/ST uses outside inputs only. The table shows each player’s effective bucket weights.
| Player | Matchup | TAPS DK | Traina | Book bucket | Outside avg | Weights T/B/O % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | BUF vs LAC | 24.34 | 21.94 | 27.16 | 24.72 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL vs DAL | 22.68 | 20.93 | 24.99 | 22.71 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC vs MIA | 20.96 | 19.93 | 22.08 | 21.20 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Brock Purdy | SF vs ARI | 20.52 | 19.21 | 21.66 | 21.14 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Dak Prescott | DAL vs BAL | 20.27 | 19.65 | 21.27 | 20.09 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Tyler Shough | NO vs LV | 20.11 | 19.62 | 20.83 | 20.04 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jared Goff | DET vs NYJ | 19.35 | 18.64 | 20.07 | 19.59 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Drake Maye | NE vs JAX | 19.12 | 19.35 | 19.46 | 18.49 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Joe Burrow | CIN vs PIT | 19.10 | 19.36 | 18.81 | 19.04 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX vs NE | 18.84 | 18.50 | 19.63 | 18.51 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Justin Herbert | LAC vs BUF | 18.47 | 18.86 | 18.49 | 17.92 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Kyler Murray | MIN vs TB | 18.05 | 18.32 | 17.88 | 17.86 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| C.J. Stroud | HOU vs IND | 17.96 | 18.08 | 17.79 | 17.96 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Baker Mayfield | TB vs MIN | 17.62 | 18.42 | 17.59 | 16.60 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Bryce Young | CAR vs CLE | 17.09 | 16.03 | 18.31 | 17.27 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jacoby Brissett | ARI vs SF | 16.90 | 18.28 | 16.17 | 15.78 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Geno Smith | NYJ vs DET | 16.81 | 16.77 | 16.88 | 16.81 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Sam Darnold | SEA vs WAS | 16.40 | 16.68 | 16.90 | 15.53 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Daniel Jones | IND vs HOU | 16.36 | 17.37 | 16.02 | 15.35 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Malik Willis | MIA vs KC | 16.19 | 16.41 | 16.84 | 15.23 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Deshaun Watson | CLE vs CAR | 15.96 | 15.26 | 17.26 | 15.59 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jameis Winston | NYG vs TEN | 15.78 | 16.92 | 14.67 | 15.36 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Marcus Mariota | WAS vs SEA | 15.68 | 18.16 | 13.71 | 14.33 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Aaron Rodgers | PIT vs CIN | 15.40 | 16.30 | 14.14 | 15.44 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Kirk Cousins | LV vs NO | 14.72 | 14.77 | 14.45 | 14.93 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Cam Ward | TEN vs NYG | 14.24 | 14.53 | 14.16 | 13.94 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Drew Lock | SEA vs WAS | 1.45 | 0.00 | — | 3.37 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Fernando Mendoza | LV vs NO | 0.30 | 0.00 | — | 0.69 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Justin Fields | KC vs MIA | 0.21 | 0.00 | — | 0.48 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Anthony Richardson Sr. | IND vs HOU | 0.19 | 0.00 | — | 0.45 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Cade Klubnik | NYJ vs DET | 0.17 | 0.00 | — | 0.40 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Jake Haener | NYG vs TEN | 0.16 | 0.00 | — | 0.38 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Davis Mills | HOU vs IND | 0.15 | 0.00 | — | 0.35 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Mac Jones | SF vs ARI | 0.15 | 0.00 | — | 0.35 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Joe Flacco | CIN vs PIT | 0.15 | 0.00 | — | 0.35 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Spencer Rattler | NO vs LV | 0.15 | 0.00 | — | 0.34 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Joshua Dobbs | DET vs NYJ | 0.14 | 0.00 | — | 0.33 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Tyler Huntley | BAL vs DAL | 0.14 | 0.00 | — | 0.33 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Shedeur Sanders | CLE vs CAR | 0.14 | 0.00 | — | 0.32 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Kenny Pickett | CAR vs CLE | 0.14 | 0.00 | — | 0.32 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Sam Howell | DAL vs BAL | 0.13 | 0.00 | — | 0.31 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Mason Rudolph | PIT vs CIN | 0.13 | 0.00 | — | 0.31 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Gardner Minshew II | ARI vs SF | 0.13 | 0.00 | — | 0.31 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Carson Wentz | MIN vs TB | 0.13 | 0.00 | — | 0.31 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Quinn Ewers | JAX vs NE | 0.13 | 0.00 | — | 0.31 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Mitchell Trubisky | TEN vs NYG | 0.13 | 0.00 | — | 0.29 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Athan Kaliakmanis | WAS vs SEA | 0.08 | 0.00 | — | 0.19 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Jalon Daniels | TB vs MIN | 0.07 | 0.00 | — | 0.15 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Tommy DeVito | NE vs JAX | 0.06 | 0.00 | — | 0.14 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Kyle Allen | BUF vs LAC | 0.06 | 0.00 | — | 0.14 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Kyle McCord | MIA vs KC | 0.06 | 0.00 | — | 0.14 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Trey Lance | LAC vs BUF | 0.05 | 0.00 | — | 0.12 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Q |
| Carson Beck | ARI vs SF | 0.01 | 0.00 | — | 0.01 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Riley Leonard | IND vs HOU | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 0.01 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Joe Fagnano | BAL vs DAL | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
| Skylar Thompson | BAL vs DAL | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
| Shane Buechele | BUF vs LAC | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
| Haynes King | CAR vs CLE | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
| Josh Johnson | CIN vs PIT | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 0.00 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Sean Clifford | CIN vs PIT | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
| Dillon Gabriel | CLE vs CAR | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
| Taylen Green | CLE vs CAR | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
| Joe Milton III | DAL vs BAL | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 0.00 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Luke Altmyer | DET vs NYJ | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
| Graham Mertz | HOU vs IND | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
| Joey Aguilar | JAX vs NE | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
| Nick Mullens | JAX vs NE | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 0.00 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Garrett Nussmeier | KC vs MIA | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
| DJ Uiagalelei | LAC vs BUF | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
| Aidan O'Connell | LV vs NO | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 0.00 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Q |
| Brady Cook | MIA vs KC | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 0.00 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| J.J. McCarthy | MIN vs TB | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 0.00 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Max Brosmer | MIN vs TB | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
| Behren Morton | NE vs JAX | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
| Zach Wilson | NO vs LV | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
| Jaxson Dart | NYG vs TEN | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
| Bailey Zappe | NYJ vs DET | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
| Will Levis | NYJ vs DET | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
| Drew Allar | PIT vs CIN | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 0.00 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Will Howard | PIT vs CIN | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 0.00 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Jalen Milroe | SEA vs WAS | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
| Kurtis Rourke | SF vs ARI | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
| Easton Stick | TB vs MIN | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
| Hendon Hooker | TEN vs NYG | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
| Jayden Daniels | WAS vs SEA | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 7.76 | 57.1/0/42.9 | OUT |
| Sam Hartman | WAS vs SEA | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | Unverified |
Fixed descending TAPS order. Component totals remain visible for audit; saved injury exclusions override the final TAPS total to zero. Bucket weights do not measure the share of genuinely market-covered components.
| Player | Matchup | TAPS DK | Traina | Book bucket | Outside avg | Weights T/B/O % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET vs NYJ | 25.22 | 22.78 | 28.72 | 24.99 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC vs MIA | 20.76 | 19.05 | 23.39 | 20.40 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jonathan Taylor | IND vs HOU | 20.44 | 19.79 | 21.67 | 20.07 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF vs ARI | 19.75 | 15.71 | 24.02 | 20.87 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jaylen Warren | PIT vs CIN | 19.26 | 21.44 | 19.01 | 16.61 | 40/30/30 | Q |
| James Cook III | BUF vs LAC | 19.07 | 19.49 | 19.95 | 17.62 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| De'Von Achane | MIA vs KC | 18.73 | 19.31 | 19.01 | 17.67 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Derrick Henry | BAL vs DAL | 18.38 | 15.55 | 21.37 | 19.17 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV vs NO | 18.19 | 16.98 | 20.08 | 17.92 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Chase Brown | CIN vs PIT | 17.80 | 17.35 | 18.99 | 17.23 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Breece Hall | NYJ vs DET | 16.24 | 15.15 | 17.70 | 16.25 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Javonte Williams | DAL vs BAL | 16.11 | 15.49 | 18.11 | 14.92 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Bucky Irving | TB vs MIN | 15.61 | 16.12 | 15.96 | 14.57 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Chuba Hubbard | CAR vs CLE | 14.93 | 12.50 | 18.14 | 14.95 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Omarion Hampton | LAC vs BUF | 14.57 | 13.81 | 15.62 | 14.53 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Quinshon Judkins | CLE vs CAR | 14.55 | 14.37 | 15.82 | 13.54 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Cam Skattebo | NYG vs TEN | 14.42 | 13.88 | 15.05 | 14.51 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Aaron Jones Sr. | MIN vs TB | 14.07 | 14.03 | 14.86 | 13.33 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| David Montgomery | HOU vs IND | 12.88 | 12.44 | 13.21 | 13.14 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Bhayshul Tuten | JAX vs NE | 11.93 | 10.87 | 13.27 | 12.01 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| TreVeyon Henderson | NE vs JAX | 11.82 | 12.78 | 11.41 | 10.94 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Travis Etienne Jr. | NO vs LV | 11.79 | 12.87 | 10.96 | 11.19 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jeremiyah Love | ARI vs SF | 11.48 | 9.93 | 12.50 | 12.54 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | NE vs JAX | 10.96 | 10.40 | 12.51 | 10.17 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Tony Pollard | TEN vs NYG | 10.94 | 9.93 | 12.34 | 10.87 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jadarian Price | SEA vs WAS | 10.37 | 8.45 | 12.26 | 11.04 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Tyler Allgeier | ARI vs SF | 9.56 | 11.65 | 9.45 | 6.88 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Woody Marks | HOU vs IND | 9.20 | 9.50 | 9.49 | 8.51 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Rachaad White | WAS vs SEA | 8.98 | 9.79 | 8.94 | 7.96 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | WAS vs SEA | 8.75 | 8.79 | 8.43 | 9.00 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Alvin Kamara | NO vs LV | 8.72 | 6.15 | 11.83 | 9.03 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Kenny Gainwell | TB vs MIN | 8.70 | 9.62 | 8.36 | 7.81 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Tyjae Spears | TEN vs NYG | 8.52 | 8.10 | 9.21 | 8.39 | 40/30/30 | Q |
| Justice Hill | BAL vs DAL | 8.23 | 9.75 | 7.82 | 6.62 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Kaelon Black | SF vs ARI | 6.49 | 6.05 | 7.15 | 6.43 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Emmett Johnson | KC vs MIA | 6.27 | 4.78 | 8.58 | 5.97 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Emanuel Wilson | SEA vs WAS | 6.17 | 5.18 | 7.13 | 6.54 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Samaje Perine | CIN vs PIT | 6.05 | 6.38 | 6.56 | 5.09 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Braelon Allen | NYJ vs DET | 5.83 | 6.40 | 5.43 | 5.47 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Keaton Mitchell | LAC vs BUF | 5.78 | 5.93 | 5.52 | 5.84 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | JAX vs NE | 5.32 | 5.53 | 5.38 | 4.99 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| George Holani | SEA vs WAS | 5.28 | 5.76 | 5.19 | 4.75 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Devin Singletary | NYG vs TEN | 5.13 | 5.53 | 4.63 | 5.10 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Mike Washington Jr. | LV vs NO | 4.14 | 3.83 | 4.75 | 3.94 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Raheim Sanders | CLE vs CAR | 3.97 | 3.85 | 4.25 | 3.85 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Ty Johnson | BUF vs LAC | 3.68 | 4.43 | 3.36 | 3.00 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| DeeJay Dallas | MIN vs TB | 3.67 | — | 3.75 | 3.59 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Sione Vaki | DET vs NYJ | 3.43 | 3.40 | 3.56 | 3.33 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| DJ Herman | MIA vs KC | 3.29 | 7.49 | 0.58 | 0.42 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| AJ Dillon | CAR vs CLE | 3.05 | 1.72 | 4.09 | 3.79 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Najee Harris | NYG vs TEN | 3.02 | — | 3.09 | 2.95 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Ollie Gordon II | MIA vs KC | 2.84 | 2.34 | 3.60 | 2.73 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Emari Demercado | DAL vs BAL | 2.83 | 2.40 | 3.35 | 2.87 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Ray Davis | BUF vs LAC | 2.68 | 2.90 | 2.67 | 2.42 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Kyle Juszczyk | SF vs ARI | 2.63 | 2.40 | 2.81 | 2.75 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Hunter Luepke | DAL vs BAL | 2.42 | 3.50 | 1.85 | 1.56 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Kendre Miller | NO vs LV | 2.38 | 4.37 | 1.34 | 0.76 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Seth McGowan | IND vs HOU | 2.31 | 1.66 | 3.07 | 2.42 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Travis Homer | PIT vs CIN | 2.30 | -0.12 | 4.40 | 3.42 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Eli Heidenreich | PIT vs CIN | 2.30 | 0.78 | 3.45 | 3.16 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Kaytron Allen | WAS vs SEA | 2.00 | 1.87 | 2.30 | 1.87 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| CJ Donaldson | NO vs LV | 1.96 | — | 2.10 | 1.82 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Kimani Vidal | LAC vs BUF | 1.94 | 2.06 | 2.07 | 1.63 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| LeQuint Allen Jr. | JAX vs NE | 1.77 | 1.87 | 1.98 | 1.43 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Demond Claiborne | MIN vs TB | 1.77 | 0.96 | 2.22 | 2.39 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Nick Singleton | TEN vs NYG | 1.71 | 1.86 | 1.91 | 1.32 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jordan James | SF vs ARI | 1.63 | 2.95 | 0.91 | 0.60 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Ameer Abdullah | JAX vs NE | 1.42 | — | 1.71 | 1.13 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Dylan Laube | LV vs NO | 1.37 | 2.23 | 0.85 | 0.74 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | NYG vs TEN | 1.36 | 1.12 | 1.77 | 1.26 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | CLE vs CAR | 1.34 | — | 1.34 | 1.34 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Isaiah Davis | NYJ vs DET | 1.31 | 0.63 | 2.01 | 1.50 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| DJ Giddens | IND vs HOU | 1.25 | 1.94 | 1.12 | 0.45 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Brashard Smith | KC vs MIA | 1.24 | 0.59 | 1.92 | 1.44 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Connor Heyward | LV vs NO | 1.23 | — | 1.41 | 1.06 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Julius Chestnut | TEN vs NYG | 1.08 | — | 1.18 | 0.98 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Bam Knight | ARI vs SF | 1.07 | 1.26 | 1.05 | 0.83 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Sean Tucker | TB vs MIN | 1.02 | 0.82 | 1.38 | 0.92 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Brady Russell | SEA vs WAS | 1.00 | — | 1.13 | 0.87 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Michael Burton | CLE vs CAR | 0.99 | — | 0.78 | 1.19 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Corey Kiner | NE vs JAX | 0.94 | 1.36 | 0.89 | 0.42 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Michael Carter | TEN vs NYG | 0.90 | — | — | 0.90 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Tahj Brooks | CIN vs PIT | 0.83 | 0.57 | 1.17 | 0.85 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jacob Saylors | DET vs NYJ | 0.70 | 0.26 | 1.26 | 0.71 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Rasheen Ali | BAL vs DAL | 0.67 | 0.35 | 1.01 | 0.78 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| British Brooks | HOU vs IND | 0.65 | 0.31 | 0.94 | 0.80 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Alec Ingold | LAC vs BUF | 0.64 | — | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Patrick Ricard | NYG vs TEN | 0.62 | 0.87 | 0.47 | 0.42 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Riley Nowakowski | PIT vs CIN | 0.54 | — | 0.62 | 0.45 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Reggie Gilliam | NE vs JAX | 0.53 | — | 0.69 | 0.37 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Jonathon Brooks | CAR vs CLE | 0.53 | — | — | 0.53 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Andrew Beck | NYJ vs DET | 0.43 | — | 0.43 | 0.42 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Max Bredeson | MIN vs TB | 0.36 | — | 0.50 | 0.21 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Tyler Goodson | DAL vs BAL | 0.28 | — | — | 0.28 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Lan Larison | NE vs JAX | 0.25 | — | — | 0.25 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Jarquez Hunter | MIA vs KC | 0.23 | — | — | 0.23 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Lew Nichols | PIT vs CIN | 0.08 | — | — | 0.08 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Frank Gore Jr. | BUF vs LAC | 0.05 | — | — | 0.05 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Jawhar Jordan | HOU vs IND | 0.05 | — | — | 0.05 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Anthony Tyus III | CAR vs CLE | 0.01 | — | — | 0.01 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Jaylen Wright | MIA vs KC | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 0.88 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Doubtful |
| Kene Nwangwu | NYJ vs DET | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 0.41 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Doubtful |
| Rico Dowdle | PIT vs CIN | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 1.85 | 57.1/0/42.9 | OUT |
| Chris Collier | LV vs NO | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Jerome Ford | MIN vs TB | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Phil Mafah | NYG vs TEN | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Josh Williams | TB vs MIN | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
Fixed descending TAPS order. Component totals remain visible for audit; saved injury exclusions override the final TAPS total to zero. Bucket weights do not measure the share of genuinely market-covered components.
| Player | Matchup | TAPS DK | Traina | Book bucket | Outside avg | Weights T/B/O % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ja'Marr Chase | CIN vs PIT | 20.47 | 21.47 | 20.58 | 19.04 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET vs NYJ | 20.46 | 19.18 | 21.89 | 20.76 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA vs WAS | 20.31 | 17.16 | 23.05 | 21.76 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Chris Olave | NO vs LV | 17.85 | 15.95 | 19.13 | 19.09 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN vs TB | 17.25 | 16.26 | 18.13 | 17.68 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| CeeDee Lamb | DAL vs BAL | 17.20 | 13.71 | 20.44 | 18.62 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Garrett Wilson | NYJ vs DET | 15.63 | 13.45 | 17.71 | 16.46 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| George Pickens | DAL vs BAL | 14.99 | 13.43 | 16.78 | 15.28 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Rashee Rice | KC vs MIA | 14.69 | 15.68 | 14.55 | 13.51 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Tee Higgins | CIN vs PIT | 14.32 | 14.59 | 14.50 | 13.78 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Parker Washington | JAX vs NE | 14.03 | 10.90 | 17.05 | 15.21 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Tetairoa McMillan | CAR vs CLE | 13.75 | 11.59 | 15.79 | 14.58 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Mike Evans | SF vs ARI | 13.58 | 12.85 | 14.39 | 13.76 | 40/30/30 | Q |
| Jameson Williams | DET vs NYJ | 13.21 | 12.74 | 14.51 | 12.55 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| DK Metcalf | PIT vs CIN | 13.16 | 13.54 | 13.43 | 12.39 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Josh Downs | IND vs HOU | 12.95 | 12.98 | 13.62 | 12.25 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Zay Flowers | BAL vs DAL | 12.91 | 8.49 | 18.14 | 13.57 | 40/30/30 | Q |
| Emeka Egbuka | TB vs MIN | 12.83 | 13.32 | 13.06 | 11.94 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Malik Nabers | NYG vs TEN | 12.74 | 10.99 | 14.39 | 13.42 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jalen Coker | CAR vs CLE | 12.12 | 8.88 | 14.86 | 13.71 | 40/30/30 | Q |
| Ladd McConkey | LAC vs BUF | 12.08 | 8.49 | 15.18 | 13.78 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Michael Wilson | ARI vs SF | 11.96 | 12.23 | 12.27 | 11.27 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS vs SEA | 11.28 | 12.04 | 10.58 | 10.95 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | SF vs ARI | 11.21 | 9.60 | 12.61 | 11.94 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Devaughn Vele | NO vs LV | 11.06 | 9.77 | 12.31 | 11.54 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Xavier Worthy | KC vs MIA | 10.96 | 10.71 | 11.62 | 10.64 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Denzel Boston | CLE vs CAR | 10.93 | 9.82 | 12.29 | 11.05 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Adonai Mitchell | NYJ vs DET | 10.91 | 10.14 | 11.90 | 10.96 | 40/30/30 | Q |
| Malik Washington | MIA vs KC | 10.87 | 11.77 | 10.67 | 9.87 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | TB vs MIN | 10.52 | 11.54 | 9.92 | 9.78 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Quentin Johnston | LAC vs BUF | 10.50 | 11.32 | 10.12 | 9.78 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Stefon Diggs | WAS vs SEA | 10.39 | 10.43 | 10.29 | 10.43 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Rashod Bateman | BAL vs DAL | 10.33 | 8.72 | 12.48 | 10.32 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| DJ Moore | BUF vs LAC | 10.27 | 6.79 | 13.50 | 11.67 | 40/30/30 | Q |
| Jordan Addison | MIN vs TB | 10.07 | 10.43 | 10.22 | 9.45 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Carnell Tate | TEN vs NYG | 9.96 | 9.76 | 10.06 | 10.14 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Khalil Shakir | BUF vs LAC | 9.92 | 8.35 | 11.94 | 9.99 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Romeo Doubs | NE vs JAX | 9.88 | 8.38 | 11.24 | 10.53 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jakobi Meyers | JAX vs NE | 9.86 | 10.38 | 10.01 | 9.01 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Keenan Allen | IND vs HOU | 9.53 | 10.17 | 9.70 | 8.52 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| KC Concepcion Jr. | CLE vs CAR | 9.43 | 7.94 | 11.01 | 9.85 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | PIT vs CIN | 9.35 | 11.31 | 7.57 | 8.52 | 40/30/30 | Q |
| Tre Tucker | LV vs NO | 9.20 | 7.26 | 11.13 | 9.85 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Ryan Flournoy | DAL vs BAL | 9.04 | 9.71 | 8.81 | 8.39 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | TEN vs NYG | 8.79 | 8.72 | 9.46 | 8.21 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Brian Thomas Jr. | JAX vs NE | 8.78 | 7.01 | 10.19 | 9.72 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | ARI vs SF | 8.74 | 9.97 | 8.36 | 7.47 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Xavier Hutchinson | HOU vs IND | 8.63 | 7.03 | 10.35 | 9.04 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Kayshon Boutte | HOU vs IND | 8.56 | 7.15 | 9.77 | 9.24 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Rashid Shaheed | SEA vs WAS | 8.36 | 8.10 | 8.74 | 8.33 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Mack Hollins | NE vs JAX | 8.31 | 7.47 | 9.27 | 8.47 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| DeMario Douglas | NE vs JAX | 8.07 | 7.65 | 8.62 | 8.08 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Tre' Harris | LAC vs BUF | 7.75 | 7.73 | 8.24 | 7.30 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Malachi Fields | NYG vs TEN | 7.46 | 8.73 | 6.67 | 6.55 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jaylin Noel | HOU vs IND | 7.08 | 6.91 | 7.97 | 6.42 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Isaiah Williams | NYJ vs DET | 7.02 | 7.36 | 7.49 | 6.11 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Ted Hurst III | TB vs MIN | 6.94 | 7.69 | 6.94 | 5.93 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jalen Nailor | LV vs NO | 6.64 | 6.42 | 6.92 | 6.67 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Tyquan Thornton | KC vs MIA | 6.42 | 7.25 | 6.11 | 5.61 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Kendrick Bourne | ARI vs SF | 6.40 | 5.79 | 7.12 | 6.50 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Bryce Lance | NO vs LV | 6.27 | 8.28 | 5.19 | 4.67 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jerry Jeudy | CLE vs CAR | 6.27 | 6.79 | 6.08 | 5.76 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Cooper Kupp | SEA vs WAS | 6.27 | 6.00 | 6.81 | 6.08 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Keon Coleman | BUF vs LAC | 6.14 | 7.31 | 5.45 | 5.26 | 40/30/30 | Q |
| Calvin Ridley | TEN vs NYG | 6.07 | 7.63 | 4.80 | 5.27 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Chris Bell | MIA vs KC | 5.98 | 6.34 | 5.68 | 5.81 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Isaac TeSlaa | DET vs NYJ | 5.76 | 7.05 | 5.09 | 4.72 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Roman Wilson | PIT vs CIN | 5.74 | 5.13 | 6.69 | 5.60 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Darnell Mooney | NYG vs TEN | 5.56 | 6.03 | 5.40 | 5.09 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Germie Bernard | PIT vs CIN | 5.54 | 6.52 | 5.12 | 4.66 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jauan Jennings | MIN vs TB | 5.43 | 6.31 | 5.01 | 4.67 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Antonio Williams | WAS vs SEA | 5.24 | 5.66 | 5.24 | 4.68 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Laquon Treadwell | IND vs HOU | 5.13 | 5.47 | 5.01 | 4.79 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jack Bech | LV vs NO | 5.12 | 4.88 | 5.39 | 5.18 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Dyami Brown | WAS vs SEA | 5.09 | 7.49 | 3.48 | 3.52 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Kevin Coleman Jr. | MIA vs KC | 5.00 | 5.32 | 4.97 | 4.59 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Xavier Legette | CAR vs CLE | 4.97 | 5.25 | 4.93 | 4.61 | 40/30/30 | Q |
| LaJohntay Wester | BAL vs DAL | 4.65 | 4.14 | 6.62 | 3.35 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Elic Ayomanor | TEN vs NYG | 4.62 | 4.69 | 4.49 | 4.65 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Joshua Palmer | BUF vs LAC | 4.55 | 3.70 | 5.77 | 4.47 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Chris Moore | BAL vs DAL | 4.51 | — | 6.05 | 2.96 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Jared Wayne | HOU vs IND | 4.44 | 4.28 | 4.90 | 4.20 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jalen McMillan | TB vs MIN | 4.16 | 3.60 | 5.24 | 3.82 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Darius Slayton | IND vs HOU | 3.80 | — | 5.00 | 2.59 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Jalen Tolbert | MIA vs KC | 3.48 | 5.91 | 1.95 | 1.78 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Casey Washington | CAR vs CLE | 3.36 | — | — | 3.36 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Devontez Walker | BAL vs DAL | 3.21 | 3.13 | 3.43 | 3.11 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jacob Cowing | SF vs ARI | 3.19 | 3.19 | 3.48 | 2.90 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Dohnte Meyers | CIN vs PIT | 3.18 | 2.73 | 3.44 | 3.50 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Kyle Williams | NE vs JAX | 3.02 | 1.78 | 4.10 | 3.59 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Tory Horton | SEA vs WAS | 2.99 | 3.77 | 3.05 | 1.90 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Colbie Young | CIN vs PIT | 2.92 | 2.30 | 3.29 | 3.38 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Malik McClain | NYJ vs DET | 2.71 | — | 3.38 | 2.05 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Tez Johnson | TB vs MIN | 2.50 | 2.82 | 2.42 | 2.16 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| KhaDarel Hodge | SF vs ARI | 2.38 | — | 2.61 | 2.14 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| KaVontae Turpin | DAL vs BAL | 2.26 | 1.87 | 2.75 | 2.30 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Travis Hunter | JAX vs NE | 2.11 | 1.77 | 2.68 | 2.00 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Brandin Cooks | SF vs ARI | 1.86 | — | — | 1.86 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Malik Benson | LV vs NO | 1.77 | 1.73 | 2.02 | 1.57 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Chimere Dike | TEN vs NYG | 1.76 | 1.20 | 2.47 | 1.81 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Ryan Miller | MIA vs KC | 1.74 | 0.75 | 2.46 | 2.34 | 40/30/30 | Q |
| Treylon Burks | WAS vs SEA | 1.70 | 2.94 | 0.76 | 1.01 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jalen Royals | KC vs MIA | 1.70 | 1.25 | 2.13 | 1.86 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Cyrus Allen | KC vs MIA | 1.67 | 1.02 | 2.36 | 1.85 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Josh Cameron | JAX vs NE | 1.67 | 2.04 | 1.36 | 1.48 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Myles Price | MIN vs TB | 1.57 | 2.90 | 0.82 | 0.56 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Isaiah Bond | CLE vs CAR | 1.56 | 1.25 | 1.97 | 1.55 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| John Metchie III | CAR vs CLE | 1.52 | 1.47 | 1.95 | 1.14 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Brycen Tremayne | CAR vs CLE | 1.45 | 1.48 | 1.66 | 1.18 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Tylan Wallace | CLE vs CAR | 1.36 | 1.98 | 1.16 | 0.74 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Efton Chism III | NE vs JAX | 1.36 | 1.60 | 1.30 | 1.09 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jonathan Mingo | DAL vs BAL | 1.34 | 1.79 | 1.06 | 1.03 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jaylin Lane | WAS vs SEA | 1.32 | 1.86 | 1.03 | 0.90 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Dareke Young | LV vs NO | 1.31 | 1.70 | 1.31 | 0.80 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Derius Davis | LAC vs BUF | 1.27 | 1.01 | 1.65 | 1.22 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | NYG vs TEN | 1.14 | 0.99 | 1.36 | 1.12 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Cody White | LV vs NO | 1.10 | — | — | 1.10 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | LAC vs BUF | 1.02 | — | — | 1.02 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Tai Felton | MIN vs TB | 0.94 | 0.38 | 1.53 | 1.11 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Simi Fehoko | ARI vs SF | 0.93 | 1.10 | 1.01 | 0.61 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Ben Skowronek | PIT vs CIN | 0.93 | 1.30 | 0.85 | 0.50 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Elijah Sarratt | BAL vs DAL | 0.86 | — | 1.17 | 0.54 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Skyler Bell | BUF vs LAC | 0.84 | — | 1.16 | 0.53 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Lewis Bond | HOU vs IND | 0.79 | — | — | 0.79 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Kevin Austin Jr. | NO vs LV | 0.78 | 0.73 | — | 0.83 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Tay Martin | DET vs NYJ | 0.77 | 0.26 | 1.32 | 0.90 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Devin Duvernay | ARI vs SF | 0.71 | — | 0.80 | 0.63 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Malachi Corley | CLE vs CAR | 0.69 | — | 0.82 | 0.55 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Nikko Remigio | KC vs MIA | 0.68 | — | 0.80 | 0.56 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Jalen Brooks | ARI vs SF | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.96 | 0.59 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Deion Burks | IND vs HOU | 0.65 | 0.45 | 0.92 | 0.65 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Kaden Wetjen | PIT vs CIN | 0.64 | — | 0.73 | 0.54 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Kameron Johnson | TB vs MIN | 0.63 | — | 0.94 | 0.32 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Jordan Watkins | SF vs ARI | 0.61 | 0.08 | 0.95 | 0.98 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Cedric Tillman | NO vs LV | 0.47 | — | — | 0.47 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Ke'Shawn Williams | CIN vs PIT | 0.46 | 0.42 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Tom Kennedy | DET vs NYJ | 0.46 | — | 0.62 | 0.30 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Braxton Berrios | NYG vs TEN | 0.44 | — | 0.66 | 0.21 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | IND vs HOU | 0.39 | — | — | 0.39 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Camden Brown | DAL vs BAL | 0.37 | — | 0.52 | 0.22 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Luke McCaffrey | WAS vs SEA | 0.31 | — | 0.47 | 0.15 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Emmanuel Henderson Jr. | SEA vs WAS | 0.31 | — | — | 0.31 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Ja'seem Reed | CAR vs CLE | 0.21 | — | — | 0.21 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | CLE vs CAR | 0.20 | — | — | 0.20 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Mitch Tinsley | HOU vs IND | 0.17 | — | — | 0.17 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Greg Dortch | BUF vs LAC | 0.15 | — | — | 0.15 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Reggie Virgil | ARI vs SF | 0.12 | — | — | 0.12 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| David Moore | CAR vs CLE | 0.09 | — | — | 0.09 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Omar Cooper Jr. | NYJ vs DET | 0.09 | — | — | 0.09 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Arian Smith | NYJ vs DET | 0.05 | — | — | 0.05 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Andrei Iosivas | CIN vs PIT | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 2.71 | 57.1/0/42.9 | OUT |
| Nico Collins | HOU vs IND | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 0.00 | 57.1/0/42.9 | OUT |
| Alec Pierce | IND vs HOU | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | OUT |
| Ashton Dulin | IND vs HOU | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 1.30 | 57.1/0/42.9 | OUT |
| Brenen Thompson | LAC vs BUF | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | 2.37 | 57.1/0/42.9 | OUT |
| Caleb Douglas | MIA vs KC | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | OUT |
| Barion Brown | NO vs LV | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 0.30 | 40/30/30 | OUT |
| Demarcus Robinson | SF vs ARI | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | OUT |
| Gage Larvadain | BAL vs DAL | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Chris Brazzell II | CAR vs CLE | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Anthony Gould | IND vs HOU | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Austin Trammell | JAX vs NE | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| KeAndre Lambert-Smith | LAC vs BUF | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Theo Wease Jr. | LAC vs BUF | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Deven Thompkins | LV vs NO | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Dont'e Thornton Jr. | LV vs NO | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Jalen Reagor | MIA vs KC | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Jeshaun Jones | MIN vs TB | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Trey Palmer | NO vs LV | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Charlie Jones | NYG vs TEN | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Gunner Olszewski | NYG vs TEN | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Montorie Foster Jr. | SEA vs WAS | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Christian Kirk | SF vs ARI | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Van Jefferson | WAS vs SEA | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
Fixed descending TAPS order. Component totals remain visible for audit; saved injury exclusions override the final TAPS total to zero. Bucket weights do not measure the share of genuinely market-covered components.
| Player | Matchup | TAPS DK | Traina | Book bucket | Outside avg | Weights T/B/O % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | ARI vs SF | 16.12 | 13.69 | 18.47 | 17.03 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Brock Bowers | LV vs NO | 14.10 | 15.55 | 12.72 | 13.54 | 40/30/30 | Q |
| Dalton Kincaid | BUF vs LAC | 12.37 | 10.06 | 14.61 | 13.22 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Travis Kelce | KC vs MIA | 12.21 | 10.36 | 14.20 | 12.68 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Dalton Schultz | HOU vs IND | 12.06 | 9.22 | 14.51 | 13.40 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Tyler Warren | IND vs HOU | 11.94 | 11.11 | 12.92 | 12.05 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Sam LaPorta | DET vs NYJ | 11.63 | 10.14 | 13.00 | 12.24 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Mark Andrews | BAL vs DAL | 11.23 | 9.54 | 12.97 | 11.72 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| George Kittle | SF vs ARI | 10.79 | 7.74 | 13.33 | 12.33 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Oronde Gadsden II | LAC vs BUF | 10.69 | 11.61 | 10.45 | 9.71 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE vs CAR | 10.63 | 10.59 | 10.95 | 10.35 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Hunter Henry | NE vs JAX | 10.38 | 9.45 | 11.78 | 10.21 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Isaiah Likely | NYG vs TEN | 9.29 | 6.48 | 10.90 | 11.42 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Juwan Johnson | NO vs LV | 9.19 | 8.13 | 9.80 | 10.00 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jake Ferguson | DAL vs BAL | 9.05 | 8.82 | 9.51 | 8.90 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Pat Freiermuth | PIT vs CIN | 8.85 | 7.76 | 10.20 | 8.95 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Brenton Strange | JAX vs NE | 8.46 | 8.06 | 8.74 | 8.71 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Cade Otton | TB vs MIN | 8.04 | 8.05 | 8.35 | 7.71 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| T.J. Hockenson | MIN vs TB | 7.99 | 6.80 | 9.23 | 8.32 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| AJ Barner | SEA vs WAS | 7.65 | 8.25 | 7.37 | 7.15 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Kenyon Sadiq | NYJ vs DET | 7.45 | 6.63 | 8.17 | 7.84 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Gunnar Helm | TEN vs NYG | 7.13 | 7.78 | 6.67 | 6.74 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Greg Dulcich | MIA vs KC | 7.10 | 7.52 | 6.96 | 6.69 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Michael Mayer | LV vs NO | 6.61 | 7.84 | 6.05 | 5.53 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Darren Waller | CAR vs CLE | 6.25 | 5.43 | 6.93 | 6.67 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Mike Gesicki | CIN vs PIT | 6.23 | 4.81 | 7.52 | 6.82 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Dawson Knox | BUF vs LAC | 4.80 | 6.18 | 4.17 | 3.60 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Darnell Washington | PIT vs CIN | 4.58 | 4.73 | 4.90 | 4.08 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Noah Fant | NO vs LV | 4.13 | 4.68 | 3.80 | 3.74 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Tommy Tremble | CAR vs CLE | 3.98 | 3.74 | 4.42 | 3.85 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Josh Oliver | MIN vs TB | 3.79 | 4.00 | 4.15 | 3.14 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jeremy Ruckert | NYJ vs DET | 3.53 | 3.86 | 3.42 | 3.19 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Noah Gray | KC vs MIA | 3.38 | 3.93 | 3.27 | 2.76 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Ben Sinnott | WAS vs SEA | 3.32 | 3.43 | 3.43 | 3.07 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Theo Johnson | NYG vs TEN | 3.31 | 3.35 | 3.33 | 3.23 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Erick All Jr. | CIN vs PIT | 3.13 | 3.60 | 2.80 | 2.82 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Mitchell Evans | CAR vs CLE | 2.95 | 3.55 | 2.57 | 2.53 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Drew Sample | CIN vs PIT | 2.93 | 3.15 | 2.88 | 2.67 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Foster Moreau | HOU vs IND | 2.90 | 2.65 | 3.00 | 3.13 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Nate Boerkircher | JAX vs NE | 2.73 | 3.91 | 2.24 | 1.65 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Durham Smythe | BAL vs DAL | 2.66 | 2.86 | 2.67 | 2.38 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Luke Farrell | SF vs ARI | 2.55 | 3.15 | 2.03 | 2.28 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Elijah Arroyo | SEA vs WAS | 2.52 | 2.21 | 2.74 | 2.70 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Will Kacmarek | MIA vs KC | 2.50 | 2.95 | 2.13 | 2.28 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Eli Raridon | NE vs JAX | 2.40 | 2.66 | 2.34 | 2.11 | 40/30/30 | Q |
| John Bates | WAS vs SEA | 2.38 | 2.00 | 2.66 | 2.61 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Hayden Rucci | LAC vs BUF | 2.26 | — | — | 2.26 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Daniel Bellinger | TEN vs NYG | 2.25 | 2.38 | 2.19 | 2.13 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jackson Hawes | BUF vs LAC | 2.19 | 3.09 | 1.80 | 1.39 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jelani Woods | NYJ vs DET | 2.17 | 3.19 | 1.63 | 1.34 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Brock Wright | DET vs NYJ | 2.05 | 2.45 | 1.99 | 1.58 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Blake Whiteheart | CLE vs CAR | 2.02 | 2.09 | 1.93 | 2.00 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Elijah Higgins | ARI vs SF | 1.92 | 2.24 | 1.91 | 1.51 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Brevyn Spann-Ford | DAL vs BAL | 1.91 | 2.04 | 1.78 | 1.86 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Colson Yankoff | WAS vs SEA | 1.84 | 1.09 | 2.32 | 2.36 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Luke Schoonmaker | DAL vs BAL | 1.75 | 2.01 | 1.66 | 1.49 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Matt Hibner | BAL vs DAL | 1.75 | — | 1.70 | 1.79 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Mo Alie-Cox | IND vs HOU | 1.73 | 2.14 | 1.62 | 1.29 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Hunter Long | ARI vs SF | 1.64 | 2.29 | 1.38 | 1.02 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Oscar Delp | NO vs LV | 1.60 | 1.28 | 1.96 | 1.66 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Ian Thomas | LV vs NO | 1.58 | 2.76 | 1.02 | 0.55 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Quintin Morris | JAX vs NE | 1.56 | 1.85 | 1.46 | 1.28 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Marlin Klein | HOU vs IND | 1.54 | 1.33 | 1.85 | 1.51 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jared Wiley | KC vs MIA | 1.46 | — | 1.52 | 1.41 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Cade Stover | HOU vs IND | 1.42 | 1.58 | 1.37 | 1.25 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Drew Ogletree | IND vs HOU | 1.40 | 1.69 | 1.32 | 1.09 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Chris Manhertz | NYG vs TEN | 1.26 | 1.71 | 1.02 | 0.92 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Brayden Willis | SF vs ARI | 1.25 | 1.67 | — | 0.69 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Chris Myarick | LV vs NO | 1.14 | — | — | 1.14 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Eric Saubert | SEA vs WAS | 1.07 | 1.32 | 1.08 | 0.72 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Patrick Herbert | LAC vs BUF | 0.98 | — | — | 0.98 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Josh Cuevas | BAL vs DAL | 0.97 | 0.92 | 1.23 | 0.79 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jake Briningstool | KC vs MIA | 0.89 | 1.25 | 0.67 | 0.65 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Cameron Latu | NE vs JAX | 0.85 | 0.99 | 0.86 | 0.67 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Thomas Fidone II | NYG vs TEN | 0.79 | — | 0.87 | 0.71 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Nick Kallerup | SEA vs WAS | 0.78 | 1.36 | — | 0.01 | 57.1/0/42.9 | Unverified |
| Payne Durham | TB vs MIN | 0.75 | 0.62 | 1.03 | 0.64 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Tanner Hudson | CIN vs PIT | 0.69 | — | — | 0.69 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Robert Tonyan | PIT vs CIN | 0.69 | 0.55 | 0.86 | 0.71 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | CAR vs CLE | 0.68 | — | 0.97 | 0.40 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Carsen Ryan | CLE vs CAR | 0.68 | 0.38 | 1.01 | 0.74 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Bauer Sharp | TB vs MIN | 0.64 | 0.60 | 0.79 | 0.54 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| David Martin-Robinson | TEN vs NYG | 0.64 | 0.57 | 0.83 | 0.55 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Tyler Conklin | DET vs NYJ | 0.62 | 0.90 | 0.57 | 0.30 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Seydou Traore | MIA vs KC | 0.59 | 0.23 | 0.95 | 0.70 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Jackson Meeks | DET vs NYJ | 0.53 | 0.24 | 0.92 | 0.53 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Tanner Koziol | JAX vs NE | 0.52 | — | 0.72 | 0.31 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Justin Joly | MIA vs KC | 0.51 | — | 0.61 | 0.42 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Kylen Granson | TEN vs NYG | 0.47 | — | 0.62 | 0.33 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Jack Endries | CIN vs PIT | 0.46 | 0.60 | 0.45 | 0.28 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Treyton Welch | NO vs LV | 0.36 | — | — | 0.36 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Brevin Jordan | HOU vs IND | 0.36 | — | 0.47 | 0.24 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Gavin Bartholomew | MIN vs TB | 0.33 | 0.08 | 0.59 | 0.40 | 40/30/30 | Unverified |
| Evan Svoboda | LAC vs BUF | 0.30 | — | — | 0.30 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Tanner Arkin | NE vs JAX | 0.23 | — | 0.40 | 0.05 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Ko Kieft | TB vs MIN | 0.16 | — | 0.31 | 0.01 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| Feleipe Franks | CAR vs CLE | 0.12 | — | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0/50/50 | Unverified |
| James Mitchell | DAL vs BAL | 0.10 | — | — | 0.10 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Jack Stoll | SF vs ARI | 0.05 | — | — | 0.05 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Charlie Kolar | LAC vs BUF | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | OUT |
| Mason Taylor | NYJ vs DET | 0.00 | 0.00 | — | — | 100/0/0 | OUT |
| Chig Okonkwo | WAS vs SEA | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.55 | 3.04 | 40/30/30 | OUT |
| Joe Royer | CLE vs CAR | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Cole Turner | MIA vs KC | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Julian Hill | NE vs JAX | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Jake Tonges | SF vs ARI | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| CJ Dippre | TB vs MIN | 0.00 | — | — | 0.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
Fixed descending TAPS order. Component totals remain visible for audit; saved injury exclusions override the final TAPS total to zero. Bucket weights do not measure the share of genuinely market-covered components.
| Player | Matchup | TAPS DK | Traina | Book bucket | Outside avg | Weights T/B/O % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | SEA vs WAS | 8.31 | — | — | 8.31 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Chiefs | KC vs MIA | 7.44 | — | — | 7.44 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Lions | DET vs NYJ | 7.34 | — | — | 7.34 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| 49ers | SF vs ARI | 7.03 | — | — | 7.03 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Bengals | CIN vs PIT | 7.00 | — | — | 7.00 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Texans | HOU vs IND | 6.89 | — | — | 6.89 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Panthers | CAR vs CLE | 6.85 | — | — | 6.85 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Vikings | MIN vs TB | 6.81 | — | — | 6.81 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Jaguars | JAX vs NE | 6.78 | — | — | 6.78 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Titans | TEN vs NYG | 6.61 | — | — | 6.61 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Giants | NYG vs TEN | 6.58 | — | — | 6.58 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Raiders | LV vs NO | 6.51 | — | — | 6.51 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Saints | NO vs LV | 6.40 | — | — | 6.40 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Colts | IND vs HOU | 6.22 | — | — | 6.22 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Steelers | PIT vs CIN | 6.11 | — | — | 6.11 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Ravens | BAL vs DAL | 5.90 | — | — | 5.90 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Patriots | NE vs JAX | 5.87 | — | — | 5.87 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Browns | CLE vs CAR | 5.79 | — | — | 5.79 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Bills | BUF vs LAC | 5.56 | — | — | 5.56 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Buccaneers | TB vs MIN | 5.02 | — | — | 5.02 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Commanders | WAS vs SEA | 4.91 | — | — | 4.91 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Jets | NYJ vs DET | 4.87 | — | — | 4.87 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Cowboys | DAL vs BAL | 4.84 | — | — | 4.84 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Dolphins | MIA vs KC | 4.81 | — | — | 4.81 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Chargers | LAC vs BUF | 4.38 | — | — | 4.38 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
| Cardinals | ARI vs SF | 4.07 | — | — | 4.07 | 0/0/100 | Unverified |
Fixed descending TAPS order. Component totals remain visible for audit; saved injury exclusions override the final TAPS total to zero. Bucket weights do not measure the share of genuinely market-covered components.
This snapshot contains 500 numeric forecasts from a supplied 671-entry pool. The other 171 entries have no usable forecast and are omitted here rather than assigned made-up zeroes. All players with a positive projection in the supplied Week 3 RotoGrinders file are covered.
Jayden Daniels and Chig Okonkwo remain zero under saved Friday exclusions despite positive outside estimates. Confirm final availability before changing those exclusions. Travis Homer and Drew Lock have model/outside role disagreements that merit review. D/ST uses PFF and RotoGrinders only where available.
These weights are a chosen blend, not an out-of-sample optimized weighting scheme. The separate defense-EPA candidate is not silently substituted for the official Traina forecast. This is a static Week 3 snapshot, not a live optimizer feed.
Our snap-based NFL fantasy model.
Player-stat estimates derived from sportsbook odds.
Jayden Daniels is out. The line moved four points on the news, and Chris’s sheet cut Washington’s quarterback grade in half — 16.0 to 8.0. Seattle arrives 2-0 having won by 21 in Arizona with its backup quarterback.
LEAN — 0.58, under the bar. Master Sheet SEA −8.7; blended fair SEA −8.1 against a contest line of SEA −7.5.
NO. Contest 7.5, board 7.5 to 8. No stale line, and laying more than a touchdown is the expensive side of the key number.
| Team | O-line | Change | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | #13 | up 2 | #5 | #6 |
| Commanders | #31 | up 1 | #25 | #31 |
Only the O-line list has been re-ranked in-season. The D-line and secondary numbers are preseason grades and get staler every week.
The sheet is past the market on a team missing its starting quarterback. That is the shape of a real edge — but the whole gap is the quarterback grade, and the market priced that news first.
Seattle’s Week 2 with Drew Lock at quarterback. Their defense has allowed 17 points in two games.
Commandment 5: Seattle grades #12 on the sheet, not top-five. Road favorites of a touchdown-plus against a division-quality defense is where the public lives.
Washington’s secondary is graded #31 preseason, but they held Philadelphia to 24 and Dallas is the only team that has scored 30 on them.
If the contest number is below the market, this is a play. At the same number it is a coin flip with the model on one side and the public on the same side.
A backup quarterback behind the #31 line into the #5 D-line.
Both teams are 2-0 and both got regraded hard in opposite directions: Cincinnati’s defense up four points of rating, Pittsburgh’s offensive line down three.
YES — 0.8. Cincinnati’s defense was regraded up four points of team rating this week (DL, DB and LB), taking them to #2 on the sheet.
NO. Contest 3.5, board 3.5. Nothing frozen to exploit, and the number is on the expensive side of the 3.
| Team | O-line | Change | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | #17 | up 3 | #8 | #18 |
| Steelers | #12 | up 2 | #3 | #5 |
Only the O-line list has been re-ranked in-season. The D-line and secondary numbers are preseason grades and get staler every week.
Cincinnati’s new team rating — second in the league behind the Rams. Burrow at 22.0 plus a defense that has allowed 30 points in two games.
The sheet’s gap. Road favorite through the 3, which is the expensive side of the number to lay.
Pittsburgh is 2-0 with the #3 D-line grade and a 2.0 home-field value on the sheet — the highest Chris gives anyone. The sheet already includes that and still says Cincinnati.
They have scored 20 and 20. This is a low-total game where a field goal is a wide margin.
Only if the contest line is 3.5 or better. At −4 or worse the edge is spent.
Two 2-0 teams whose wins came 20–7 and 20–3.
Detroit lost in Buffalo and the Jets took Green Bay to overtime. The market has come down three points from the lookahead; the sheet hasn’t.
YES — 0.8. Master Sheet DET −8.0. The Jets are without Minkah Fitzpatrick and their tight end, and they grade #29 D-line and #29 secondary.
SMALL. Contest 6.5 against a board of 6.7. The value is the key number: 6.5 wins every seven-point Detroit game that −7 only pushes.
| Team | O-line | Change | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | #18 | up 3 | #29 | #29 |
| Lions | #16 | up 3 | #10 | #21 |
Only the O-line list has been re-ranked in-season. The D-line and secondary numbers are preseason grades and get staler every week.
The sheet likes Detroit by a point and a half more than the market. Laying 6.5 at home with a 1.5 home value baked in.
The Jets’ Week 2 against Green Bay. Two weeks in, they have been competitive and their number has been moving toward them.
Three points of movement toward a 1-1 dog usually means money, not narrative. Fading a move that size needs a reason better than a preseason rating.
They have played Buffalo and New Orleans. The sheet's 62.0 is a projection, not evidence.
The edge is 1.5 points on the sheet and nothing on the market side.
Missing their starting tight end and safety, on the road.
Jaxson Dart is out for the season. The sheet cut the Giants’ quarterback from 13.0 to 8.0 — five points of rating — and the market barely moved.
YES — 0.6. Master Sheet NYG −3.7 with the Dart downgrade (QB 13.0 → 8.0) already applied.
SMALL, and the right side of the 3. A favorite at 2.5 wins every three-point game. The market pricing a Dart-to-Winston change at half a point is either respect for Winston or contempt for Tennessee — either way it is priced, and we are on the cheaper side of the key number.
| Team | O-line | Change | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | #28 | up 1 | #17 | #30 |
| Giants | #21 | up 2 | #21 | #27 |
Only the O-line list has been re-ranked in-season. The D-line and secondary numbers are preseason grades and get staler every week.
The sheet still likes the Giants by more than the number, with the Dart downgrade already applied.
Tennessee 43.6 and the Giants 49.0 are #31 and #28 on the sheet. Small numbers, small edges, high variance.
Whoever replaces Dart is unproven, and the Giants’ #21 line does not protect well.
Lost 23–10 and 24–7. Not a blowout profile against a bad favorite.
A two-and-a-half point favorite with a new quarterback is not where the edge is.
Two bottom-five offenses and a backup making his first start.
The biggest disagreement on the board between the sheet and the market: Chris’s numbers make New England a slight favorite, the market lays nearly a field goal with Jacksonville.
EXCLUDED — alarm. The Master Sheet is 4.0 points off the contest line. With no composite leg this week there is nothing to break the tie, so the fair number is the book board.
SMALL. Contest JAX −3.0 against a board of −2.8 — so New England gets the 3, the best key-number position available to a dog. That is 0.2 of value, not a reason on its own.
| Team | O-line | Change | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | #22 | down 9 | #16 | #1 |
| Jaguars | #27 | up 3 | #9 | #9 |
Only the O-line list has been re-ranked in-season. The D-line and secondary numbers are preseason grades and get staler every week.
Alarm territory. Either the sheet is carrying a stale New England grade or the market is overreacting to an 0-2 start.
New England’s preseason secondary grade, and the sheet’s DB column (12.6) is the second-highest in the league. Through two weeks they have allowed 13 and 20.
Two straight weeks the O-line has been the story, and the grade keeps falling. The sheet may be a week behind again.
Coen’s offense hung 34 on Cleveland and Lawrence has the better supporting cast.
A 3.8-point disagreement is a flag on our own number, not an edge. If the Hoppen composite lands near the sheet, New England is the play.
Neither offense has scored 21.
Miami just won 49–35 in San Francisco and the market still moved three more points toward Kansas City — but Circa froze a full point past the market. The sheet and the board both make this shorter than the contest line does.
YES — 1.3. Master Sheet KC −9.9 against a contest line of 11.5. Blended with the book board (−10.4): KC −10.2.
YES. Contest 11.5 vs a book board of 10.4 (DraftKings 10, everyone else 10.5). A full point of frozen line — the single biggest gap this week, and the exact edge that won Pittsburgh and Denver last week.
| Team | O-line | Change | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs | #14 | down 6 | #19 | #23 |
| Dolphins | #25 | no change | #30 | #32 |
Only the O-line list has been re-ranked in-season. The D-line and secondary numbers are preseason grades and get staler every week.
Half a point apart. Nothing to bet on the side.
Miami’s Week 2. The sheet says that was San Francisco’s defense, not Miami’s offense.
Commandment 5 test: Kansas City is #8 on the sheet, not a league-best team, and this is 10.5 on the road.
Whatever the model says, a team that just hung 49 is not a normal double-digit dog.
Sheet and market agree.
Miami’s defense grades #30 D-line and #32 secondary.
Houston is 0-2 and has been regraded down three and a half points — receivers gutted without Nico Collins, O-line cut again, coaching docked. The line hasn’t moved all week.
NO — 0.28. The sheet and the contest line agree.
SMALL — 0.20 on HOU. Contest HOU −1.5, board HOU −1.5.
| Team | O-line | Change | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texans | #30 | down 3 | #2 | #2 |
| Colts | #3 | up 1 | #18 | #16 |
Only the O-line list has been re-ranked in-season. The D-line and secondary numbers are preseason grades and get staler every week.
The sheet says pick 'em; the market lays a point and a half. Two points of daylight toward Indianapolis.
Indianapolis’s line against Houston’s. Houston’s offense has scored 31 and 3.
#2 D-line and #2 secondary preseason. They held Cincinnati to 20 and Buffalo to 36 in a shootout.
Desperation games are coin flips, and the number is tiny either way.
Small edge, real line-play mismatch, and the market hasn’t priced Collins being out twice.
The #3 line against a Houston front that is better than the result.
Carolina won by 31 last week and Cleveland won outright as a 8.5-point dog. Both teams are 1-1 and the market has Carolina laying a short road number.
LEAN — 0.52, under the bar. Master Sheet CAR −1.4; blended fair CAR −2.0 against a contest line of CAR −2.5.
NO. Contest and board both CAR −2.5. As a dog you want to be on or above the 3, not below it.
| Team | O-line | Change | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | #26 | no change | #15 | #14 |
| Browns | #29 | up 2 | #12 | #12 |
Only the O-line list has been re-ranked in-season. The D-line and secondary numbers are preseason grades and get staler every week.
One point of edge on Cleveland, from a sheet that hasn’t moved Cleveland up after they beat Tampa in Tampa.
Carolina after a 31-point win, Cleveland after an upset. Commandment 9 cuts both ways here — the move is toward the team that just blew someone out.
Two straight competent weeks after the Week 1 disaster, and Bryce Young was regraded up.
QB 7.0, O-line 6.0, rating 47.55. One upset doesn’t change the roster.
Short road favorite off a blowout is the classic overpriced spot.
Two bottom-five offenses.
Buffalo is 2-0 and has moved almost five points since the lookahead. The Chargers are 0-2 and were regraded down at quarterback, receiver and coaching.
NO — 0.10. The sheet and the contest line agree.
SMALL — 0.20 on BUF. Contest BUF −7.0, board BUF −7.
| Team | O-line | Change | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | #9 | down 2 | #23 | #11 |
| Bills | #6 | no change | #14 | #13 |
Only the O-line list has been re-ranked in-season. The D-line and secondary numbers are preseason grades and get staler every week.
Dead on. The value is only in which side of the 7 the contest gives you.
The Chargers have lost to Arizona and Las Vegas. Buffalo has beaten Houston and Detroit.
Buffalo is the #1 composite team in the league right now and everyone knows it.
If Herbert stays upright this is closer than the market says.
Take Buffalo at −6.5 or the Chargers at +7.5. At exactly 7 it’s a pass.
Buffalo has been winning shootouts; the Chargers can’t score.
A three-point swing since the lookahead: Tampa opened favored, Minnesota is now laying the points on the road after a 39–0 win.
NO — 0.15. The sheet and the contest line agree.
YES, 0.6 — on the side our model doesn’t like. Contest MIN −1.0 against a board of −1.6. The two columns point at different teams, which is a stay-away, not a coin flip.
| Team | O-line | Change | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | #11 | up 1 | #22 | #22 |
| Buccaneers | #2 | up 1 | #11 | #15 |
Only the O-line list has been re-ranked in-season. The D-line and secondary numbers are preseason grades and get staler every week.
Minnesota’s Week 2 against Chicago, with Carson Wentz. The sheet moved them up 2.7 points of rating on the strength of the defense.
Two points of daylight toward Tampa — the sheet says this is a coin flip.
Lost to Cincinnati and Cleveland at home. The sheet cut them for it.
Green Bay and Chicago, both of whom have quarterback problems.
The market has moved three points on a shutout of a team missing its quarterback.
Minnesota’s defense is the story of their 2-0 start.
San Francisco gave up 49 to Miami and lost Nick Bosa. The market came down three points; the sheet came down half a point, which is why this is the third alarm on the board.
EXCLUDED. Master Sheet SF −11.0 against a contest line of 8.5. The market dropped three points on the Bosa injury and the 49-point game; the sheet dropped one point of D-line grade. With no composite leg this week to break the tie, the sheet doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt.
NO. Contest SF −8.5 matches the board (SF −8.5).
| Team | O-line | Change | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | #20 | up 2 | #31 | #26 |
| 49ers | #8 | up 2 | #20 | #24 |
Only the O-line list has been re-ranked in-season. The D-line and secondary numbers are preseason grades and get staler every week.
The single biggest name on either roster. The market moved three points; our sheet moved one point of D-line grade.
Alarm. When the model is this far past a market that just digested an injury, the model is usually the one missing something.
47.15 on the sheet, #26 secondary, lost 31–7 to Seattle.
San Francisco’s defense was the case for laying double digits. It just got shredded and lost its best player.
Alarm with a named cause on our side of it.
San Francisco’s defense without Bosa has now allowed 49 in a week.
Las Vegas is 2-0 and was regraded up five points; New Orleans is 1-1 off an outright win in Baltimore and was regraded up almost four. The line hasn’t moved.
YES — 1.03. Master Sheet NO −4.9 (DL 6.8 → 8.0, DB 6.3 → 8.4) against a contest line of 3.
YES. Contest −3.0 flat; the board is −3 juiced to −120 with bet365 and Fanatics already at −3.5. The market wants past the key number and the contest hasn’t moved.
| Team | O-line | Change | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | #15 | up 3 | #24 | #28 |
| Saints | #19 | down 3 | #28 | #25 |
Only the O-line list has been re-ranked in-season. The D-line and secondary numbers are preseason grades and get staler every week.
The sheet likes the Saints by more than the number, and the juice (−118 to −122) says the market is leaning that way too.
New Orleans’s Week 2. Beating the Ravens on the road is the best win either team has.
Beat Miami and the Chargers, and the sheet moved them five points. Selling a 2-0 team at +3 is the market’s job, not ours.
A home favorite at exactly 3 with juice is the most expensive place to lay it.
Both the sheet and the juice are on that side; the key number is the cost.
Avoids the 3 entirely.
Played in Brazil, so nobody gets home field — the venue check that cost us a bad number in Week 1. With no home value the sheet makes Baltimore a 4.7-point favorite.
YES — 1.05, once the neutral site is handled. Master Sheet BAL −4.7 with no home-field value applied. Dallas’s secondary was regraded 7.0 → 5.0.
YES. Contest BAL −3.0 against a book board of −3.5 everywhere. Laying 3 instead of 3.5 is the most valuable half-point in football — roughly four to five times an ordinary half-point.
| Team | O-line | Change | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | #23 | up 1 | #7 | #8 |
| Cowboys | #24 | down 7 | #13 | #20 |
Only the O-line list has been re-ranked in-season. The D-line and secondary numbers are preseason grades and get staler every week.
Applying Dallas’s home value here would have produced a false 1.25-point edge on the Cowboys. Week 1’s Melbourne lesson, applied.
Over a point of edge on Baltimore once the venue is handled correctly.
The sheet still has them #6. That is a projection fighting two weeks of evidence.
Their offense is fine; it’s the secondary that got cut.
The neutral-site correction is the whole edge. Don’t lay 4.5+.
Two damaged secondaries, neutral field, no weather.
The sheet’s biggest disagreement with the market, again, and it’s Denver — the same team the sheet over-rated in Week 2. Puka Nacua is doubtful.
EXCLUDED — alarm. The Master Sheet is 3.8 points off the contest line. With no composite leg this week there is nothing to break the tie, so the fair number is the book board.
NO. Contest LAR −2.5, board −2.35. Nothing frozen. The sheet’s Denver number is the same one the market beat in Week 2.
| Team | O-line | Change | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rams | #10 | up 1 | #1 | #7 |
| Broncos | #1 | no change | #6 | #3 |
Only the O-line list has been re-ranked in-season. The D-line and secondary numbers are preseason grades and get staler every week.
3.6 points. Same shape as Week 2, when the sheet had Denver way past the market and the market had it right on the number (Denver won 20–13 and covered −2.5).
Denver is 1-1 with wins graded on the sheet’s best line-play unit. The 2.0 home value is the largest Chris assigns.
Two weeks running. Until the composite says otherwise, treat the size of this gap as a flag, not an edge.
And they are laying points on the road at altitude with their best receiver doubtful.
It is also the third week of the same disagreement. Size accordingly, or wait for the composite.
Rams offense without Nacua, at altitude.
Caleb Williams is out with a hamstring; Tyson Bagent starts. A six-point swing from the lookahead, and the sheet is right on top of the market.
NO — 0.06. The sheet and the contest line agree.
SMALL — 0.20 on PHI. Contest PHI −4.5, board PHI −4.5.
| Team | O-line | Change | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | #4 | down 2 | #4 | #4 |
| Bears | #5 | no change | #26 | #19 |
Only the O-line list has been re-ranked in-season. The D-line and secondary numbers are preseason grades and get staler every week.
The sheet is slightly on Chicago — half a point. That is noise, and it is the closest agreement of any game with a six-point move.
Chicago’s Week 2 loss, with Williams playing. Now he’s out.
QB and receivers both downgraded; they have won 24–22 and 24–7 without looking like the #2 roster the sheet says they are.
Exactly the profile the public fades and the market prices correctly.
Six-point move already absorbed; sheet and market agree.
Bagent’s first start against the #4 preseason secondary.
Every game read against every source: Chris’s regraded Master Sheet, Hoppen’s Week 2 composite ratings and charts, the summer lookahead, PFF’s preseason units, the new WEPA ranks, Circa’s frozen contest line and Circa’s own live book. The gap between those last two is where Circa is beaten.
#1 — the only game that clears the 1.0 bar. Circa’s own book is at NE −5, and so are Bovada and BetUS; the contest gives 5.5. Chris’s regrade dropped New England (A.J. Brown out, coaching 6 → 4): Master Sheet NE −2.9, Hoppen composite NE −4.4, blend NE −4.4 — 1.1 points on Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh’s defense was #1 in WEPA; New England’s run game #31 on Hoppen’s chart. Risk: Joey Porter Jr. out. Game page →
#2 — blend 0.9, both model legs past the number. Master Sheet GB −6.8, Hoppen composite GB −4.4. Circa’s book is −3 at −120 — the same price as −3.5 flat, so the slide toward the Jets has stopped. Buy low: Green Bay’s Week 1 collapse came against a 73.9% blitz rate; the Jets blitzed 28%. Risk: favorite on the wrong side of the 3. Game page →
#3 — every book moved to Denver −3; the contest gives you 2.5. Circa’s book, Bovada and BetUS are all −3 (+100). Blend 0.7 on Denver. Master Sheet DEN −7.4; Jacksonville’s Week 1 came against Cleveland, Denver’s against Kansas City; Sharp flagged the altitude. Two dissents, named: Hoppen’s write-up leans Jacksonville and his composite has it near a pick’em. The money moved after both. Game page →
#4 — smaller than we sold it. Circa’s book is −7 (−115), not the −7.5 we saw earlier, so the extra half-point is gone. What’s left: a favorite on the key number with the juice our way; Chris’s regrade (QB 18 → 15, D-line 14.4 → 12.4) still says −9.7; the composite has the Rams #2 in football. Blend 0.5. Buy low after 37–7. Risk: Monday game, Puka questionable. Game page →
#5 — the field pick, and our numbers are against it. Four-point swing on Atlanta’s third quarterback; Circa’s book −2.5 (−120), Bovada −3. But the Master Sheet has Atlanta by 1.4 and the composite has Carolina by only 0.9 — alarm. This is the Pittsburgh-last-week pick: take it so you don’t fall behind the room, or swap in the first alternate if you’d rather follow the numbers. Game page →
SEA −4 — Chris’s Darnold regrade and the composite both land on SEA −5.0; blend 0.4. CIN +2.5 — 0.45, about 0.6 with Collins docked, but books juice Houston and +2.5 is below the key. CLE +8.5 — 0.45, least-picked territory. Dropped since this morning: NO +8.5 (the regrade priced Flowers) and PHI −7 (model alarm).
| Game | Contest | Circa book | Bovada · BetUS | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT @ NE | NE −5.5 | −5 | −5 · −5 | PIT +0.5 |
| JAX @ DEN | DEN −2.5 | −3 (+100) | −3 (+100) · −3 (+100) | DEN — you get the 3 |
| CAR @ ATL | CAR −2.5 | −2.5 (−120) | −3 (+100) · −2 (−120) | CAR ~10¢ toward 3 |
| NYG @ LAR | LAR −7 | −7 (−115) | −7 · −7 (−115) | LAR ~5¢ (was 7.5 at other books earlier) |
| CIN @ HOU | HOU −2.5 | −2.5 (−115) | −2.5 (−120) · −2 (−120) | HOU ~5¢ |
| GB @ NYJ | GB −3.5 | −3 (−120) | −3 · −3 (−115) | none — −3 at −120 ≈ −3.5 flat |
| SEA @ ARI | SEA −4 | −4 | −3.5 · −4 (ARI −115) | leans Arizona |
| CLE @ TB | TB −8.5 | −8.5 | −8 · −9 (+100) | split |
| NO @ BAL | BAL −8.5 | −8.5 | −8 · −9 (+100) | split |
| Other six | Circa’s book matches the contest | none | ||
Why this table leads. In the Circa research, the most-picked games beat the closing line 16 of 25 times: the field’s consensus is mostly people taking the stale number. A half-point on 3 is worth four to five times a half-point off the key numbers; on 7, two to three times. Juice counts too: at the 3, twenty cents is roughly a half-point, so −3 at −120 is −3.5 flat by another name.
Why the numbers moved this morning. The preseason sim converted win totals at 1.6 points per win, but against these lines it implied 2.1–2.6: simulated wins regress toward 8.5, so it shrank every favorite. The composite is already in points and needs no conversion. Chris’s regrade took three of the six alarms off the board by grading the quarterbacks who are actually playing. What’s still off: the Master Sheet over-rates Philadelphia against the market for the second straight week (PHI −12.2 here vs −7), and Atlanta’s quarterback grade hasn’t moved for Cooper Rush.
Commandment 2 is a filter, not a veto. Week 1’s biggest mistake was passing on Chicago and Buffalo — right reads, both covered — because no public-money story came to mind. A stale number is a market vulnerability. So is a line that moved on one result. Every game page below runs the test, and every game gets broken down, stay-aways included: new data can make an edge.
Both of our numbers have Green Bay by more than 3.5 — Master Sheet −6.8, Hoppen’s Week 2 composite −4.4. Circa’s own book is at −3 (−120), the same price as −3.5 flat. Blend: GB −4.4, a 0.9 edge. The Packers lost ugly to a 73.9% blitz rate; the Jets blitzed 28%.
ON THE CARD #2 — GB −3.5 · blend 0.9, both model legs past the number| Master Sheet | GB −6.8 |
| Hoppen comp. | GB −4.4 |
| Summer look | GB −6.5 |
| Model | GB −5.6 |
| Circa | GB −3.5 |
| Circa book | GB −3 (−120) |
| OL | DL | DB | Off | Def | vRun | vPass | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | 28 | 27 | 10 | 20 | 11 | 14 | 11 |
| NYJ | 21 | 29 | 29 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
Kyler Murray is out; Carson Wentz starts. Chris regraded the quarterback (11.5 → 10.0), and the model now lands on CHI −4.2 (sheet −3.4, composite −5.1) against 4.5. Every book is at 4.5. Flores has had Ben Johnson’s number lately — not enough to bet.
STAY AWAY — the model’s lean was Kyler Murray, and he’s out| Master Sheet | CHI −3.4 |
| Hoppen comp. | CHI −5.1 |
| Summer look | CHI −3.5 |
| Model | CHI −4.2 |
| Circa | CHI −4.5 |
| Circa book | CHI −4.5 |
| OL | DL | DB | Off | Def | vRun | vPass | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 12 | 22 | 22 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 20 |
| CHI | 5 | 26 | 19 | 1 | 24 | 17 | 26 |
The only qualifier on the slate. Circa’s own book is at NE −5 — so is everyone else — and the contest gives you 5.5. Chris’s regrade took A.J. Brown out and cut the Patriots’ coaching grade: Master Sheet NE −2.9, Hoppen composite −4.4. Blend NE −4.4: 1.1 points on Pittsburgh.
ON THE CARD #1 — PIT +5.5 · the only game that clears 1.0| Master Sheet | NE −2.9 |
| Hoppen comp. | NE −4.4 |
| Summer look | NE −4.5 |
| Model | NE −3.6 |
| Circa | NE −5.5 |
| Circa book | NE −5 |
| OL | DL | DB | Off | Def | vRun | vPass | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 14 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| NE | 13 | 16 | 1 | 21 | 12 | 7 | 19 |
The four-point swing on Atlanta’s third quarterback. Circa’s book is −2.5 at −120 and Bovada is at −3. Our numbers disagree: Master Sheet has Atlanta by 1.4, Hoppen’s composite has Carolina by only 0.9 — alarm. This is Chris’s move-driven pick, labeled that way.
ON THE CARD #5 — CAR −2.5 · the field pick; our numbers say Atlanta| Master Sheet | ATL −1.4 |
| Hoppen comp. | CAR −0.9 |
| Summer look | ATL −1.5 |
| Model ⚠ | ATL −0.3 |
| Circa | CAR −2.5 |
| Circa book | CAR −2.5 (−120) |
| OL | DL | DB | Off | Def | vRun | vPass | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 26 | 15 | 14 | 8 | 30 | 24 | 30 |
| ATL | 9 | 32 | 17 | 32 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Three points of Week 1 reprice (summer −5.5, now −8.5). Hoppen’s composite dropped Cleveland to #32 and still makes this TB −8.1; Master Sheet −7.0. Blend: 0.45 on the Browns. Books are split 8 to 9. Pass.
STAY AWAY — model leans Cleveland 0.45; the least-picked side in Circa loses| Master Sheet | TB −7.0 |
| Hoppen comp. | TB −8.1 |
| Summer look | TB −5.5 |
| Model | TB −7.5 |
| Circa | TB −8.5 |
| Circa book | TB −8.5 |
| OL | DL | DB | Off | Def | vRun | vPass | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 31 | 12 | 12 | 24 | 27 | 20 | 31 |
| TB | 3 | 11 | 15 | 7 | 19 | 25 | 14 |
Nico Collins is out. Hoppen’s composite has Houston by 2.4, the Master Sheet by 0.4 — Collins isn’t docked yet. Blend: 0.45 on Cincinnati, about 0.6 with Collins. But every book is juicing Houston, and +2.5 sits below the key number.
ALTERNATE #2 — CIN +2.5 · model yes, market and key number no| Master Sheet | HOU −0.4 |
| Hoppen comp. | HOU −2.4 |
| Summer look | HOU −2.5 (Sharp) |
| Model | HOU −1.4 |
| Circa | HOU −2.5 |
| Circa book | HOU −2.5 (−115) |
| OL | DL | DB | Off | Def | vRun | vPass | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 20 | 8 | 18 | 23 | 17 | 27 | 8 |
| HOU | 27 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 23 | 4 | 32 |
The regrade closed it. Chris docked Baltimore’s receivers for Zay Flowers and bumped the Saints’ quarterback. Master Sheet BAL −7.8, Hoppen composite −8.6 — model −8.2 against 8.5. Books split 8 to 9.
STAY AWAY — Chris’s regrade already took Flowers out, and the edge went with it| Master Sheet | BAL −7.8 |
| Hoppen comp. | BAL −8.6 |
| Summer look | BAL −7.5 |
| Model | BAL −8.2 |
| Circa | BAL −8.5 |
| Circa book | BAL −8.5 |
| OL | DL | DB | Off | Def | vRun | vPass | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 16 | 28 | 25 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 17 |
| BAL | 24 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 28 | 2 |
The sources can’t agree how good Philadelphia is. Master Sheet PHI −12.2 (after Chris cut the O-line grade), Hoppen composite −6.9. The average trips the alarm. Circa’s book is at 7. Everyone’s survivor pick.
STAY AWAY — sources five points apart; model alarm| Master Sheet | PHI −12.2 |
| Hoppen comp. | PHI −6.9 |
| Summer look | PHI −4.5 |
| Model ⚠ | PHI −9.5 |
| Circa | PHI −7 |
| Circa book | PHI −7 |
| OL | DL | DB | Off | Def | vRun | vPass | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 2 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 13 | 16 | 12 |
| TEN | 29 | 17 | 30 | 30 | 21 | 22 | 25 |
Every book moved to Denver −3 — Circa’s own included — and the contest gives you 2.5. Master Sheet DEN −7.4; Hoppen’s composite only −0.2. The opponents explain Week 1: Jacksonville played Cleveland, Denver played Kansas City. Dissents: Hoppen’s write-up and his composite both lean Jacksonville.
ON THE CARD #3 — DEN −2.5 · every book moved to 3; two dissents named| Master Sheet | DEN −7.4 |
| Hoppen comp. | Pick |
| Summer look | DEN −2.5 |
| Model | DEN −3.8 |
| Circa | DEN −2.5 |
| Circa book | DEN −3 (+100) |
| OL | DL | DB | Off | Def | vRun | vPass | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | 30 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 6 |
| DEN | 1 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 9 |
Two bad offenses, one good defense. Las Vegas was #1 in pressure and #2 in success rate allowed; the Chargers were #28 on offense. Model LAC −5.9 (Chris docked Bowers); blended 0.2 on the Raiders. Books lean the Chargers.
STAY AWAY — small Raiders lean, no market case| Master Sheet | LAC −7.2 |
| Hoppen comp. | LAC −4.6 |
| Summer look | LAC −8.5 |
| Model | LAC −5.9 |
| Circa | LAC −6.5 |
| Circa book | LAC −6.5 |
| OL | DL | DB | Off | Def | vRun | vPass | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 18 | 24 | 28 | 22 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| LAC | 7 | 23 | 11 | 26 | 25 | 23 | 27 |
The model and Circa agree to within a quarter-point. Dallas’s defense was the worst in football in Week 1 and just lost Malik Hooker; Washington allowed 47.4% pressure. Every book is at 4.
STAY AWAY — model within half a point of Circa| Master Sheet | DAL −5.7 |
| Hoppen comp. | DAL −3.4 |
| Summer look | DAL −4.5 |
| Model | DAL −4.5 |
| Circa | DAL −4 |
| Circa book | DAL −4 |
| OL | DL | DB | Off | Def | vRun | vPass | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 32 | 25 | 31 | 17 | 14 | 8 | 16 |
| DAL | 17 | 13 | 20 | 6 | 32 | 30 | 29 |
Chris regraded the quarterback (Darnold 13.5 → Lock 8.5) and the Master Sheet now says SEA −5.0. Hoppen’s composite, which already knocked Seattle from 4.6 to 2.2, says −5.0 too. Circa’s book is at 4. Blend: 0.4 on Seattle — first alternate.
ALTERNATE #1 — SEA −4 · Chris’s Darnold regrade and the composite both say −5| Master Sheet | SEA −5.0 |
| Hoppen comp. | SEA −5.0 |
| Summer look | SEA −10 |
| Model | SEA −5.0 |
| Circa | SEA −4 |
| Circa book | SEA −4 |
| OL | DL | DB | Off | Def | vRun | vPass | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 15 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
| ARI | 22 | 31 | 26 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 15 |
Three points of Week 1 reprice (10.5 to 13), and the in-season numbers agree with it. Master Sheet SF −13.2, Hoppen composite −11.9 — Miami is #31 of 32. Blend: 0.2 on Miami. Pass.
STAY AWAY — model within half a point of Circa| Master Sheet | SF −13.2 |
| Hoppen comp. | SF −11.9 |
| Summer look | SF −10.5 |
| Model | SF −12.5 |
| Circa | SF −13 |
| Circa book | SF −13 |
| OL | DL | DB | Off | Def | vRun | vPass | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 25 | 30 | 32 | 28 | 18 | 21 | 13 |
| SF | 10 | 20 | 24 | 9 | 7 | 13 | 7 |
Kansas City’s defense was #1 in football. Model KC −6.2 (sheet −5.6 after Chris cut the Chiefs’ O-line, composite −6.9); blended 0.2 on Indianapolis. Public money 80%+ on the Chiefs; the line hasn’t moved.
STAY AWAY — small Colts lean into the league’s best Week 1 defense| Master Sheet | KC −5.6 |
| Hoppen comp. | KC −6.9 |
| Summer look | KC −5.5 |
| Model | KC −6.2 |
| Circa | KC −6.5 |
| Circa book | KC −6.5 |
| OL | DL | DB | Off | Def | vRun | vPass | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 4 | 18 | 16 | 27 | 28 | 26 | 28 |
| KC | 8 | 19 | 23 | 19 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
Correction to this morning’s read: the −7.5 is gone — Circa’s own book is −7 (−115). What’s left: Chris’s regrade (QB 18 → 15, D-line 14.4 → 12.4) still makes it LAR −9.7; Hoppen’s composite has the Rams #2 in football, −6.2 here. Blend 0.5, on the 7. Buy low after 37–7.
ON THE CARD #4 — LAR −7 · on the key number; the extra half-point is gone| Master Sheet | LAR −9.7 |
| Hoppen comp. | LAR −6.2 |
| Summer look | LAR −8.5 |
| Model | LAR −7.9 |
| Circa | LAR −7 |
| Circa book | LAR −7 (−115) |
| OL | DL | DB | Off | Def | vRun | vPass | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | 23 | 21 | 27 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 23 |
| LAR | 11 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 29 | 31 | 22 |
The market has spent the week selling Green Bay — 6.5 in the summer, 4.5 on reopen, 3.5 by Thursday. Both independent sources still have the Packers by more than that, and the reason they looked broken in Week 1 was an opponent, not a trend.
YES, just under the bar. Master Sheet GB −6.8, Hoppen composite GB −4.4 (−3.6 at his flat 1.5 HFA). Blended with Circa’s book: GB −4.4, a 0.9-point edge on 3.5 — second-best on the slate.
BUY-LOW, not stale. The line slid 6.5 → 4.5 → 3.5 on one bad Sunday, then stopped: Circa’s book is −3 at −120, Bovada −3, BetUS −3 (−115). No stale number to take — the market case is Commandment 9.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary | Off WEPA | Def WEPA | D vs run | D vs pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | #28 | #27 | #10 | #20 | #11 | #14 | #11 |
| Jets | #21 | #29 | #29 | #11 | #6 | #11 | #4 |
WEPA ranks are one game. Read them against the opponent each team faced — a #1 against the league’s worst unit is not a #1.
The blitz rate Green Bay faced in Week 1 against the rate the Jets used. Every ugly Packers number traces to that one input. Opponent-adjusted, their Week 1 is not a signal about 2026.
Master Sheet and Hoppen’s in-season composite. Both past the Circa number — a magnitude split, not a directional one.
Circa’s own book this morning. The slide toward the Jets has stopped at the key number.
The hook is on the wrong side. Favorites want to be on or below the key number; Green Bay wins by exactly three about one game in seven. This is the weakest key-number position on the card.
PFF preseason grades for Green Bay’s O-line and D-line. The forward-looking units say the protection problem is real, not just Minnesota. If the Jets find pressure with four, this is the way it loses.
Both independents past the number, a buy-low spot, and the market done moving. The hook is the cost.
If the protection concern is real, it shows late as Love takes hits.
Last week’s consensus team, now with its backup quarterback, walking into the league’s best offense by every Week 1 measure. The model’s Minnesota lean was built on Murray; take him out and the number is Circa’s.
NO. With Wentz graded in, Master Sheet CHI −3.4 and Hoppen composite CHI −5.1 average to −4.2. Blended: 0.1 on Minnesota. Noise.
NO. 4.5 at Circa’s book, Bovada and BetUS. The Murray news was in the number before the freeze.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary | Off WEPA | Def WEPA | D vs run | D vs pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | #12 | #22 | #22 | #16 | #9 | #3 | #20 |
| Bears | #5 | #26 | #19 | #1 | #24 | #17 | #26 |
WEPA ranks are one game. Read them against the opponent each team faced — a #1 against the league’s worst unit is not a #1.
Johnson’s EPA per play against Flores in the two meetings since he took over Chicago. The one piece of evidence on Minnesota’s side that doesn’t depend on the quarterback.
Chicago’s Week 1 offense against Minnesota’s Week 1 run defense. Both came against weak opponents (Carolina and Green Bay’s run game). Neither is proven.
A backup behind a line PFF grades #12, facing a Chicago defense that just gave up 37. The model’s Minnesota lean assumed a starter it doesn’t have.
Jauan Jennings also ruled out — the Vikings are down a quarterback and a starting receiver.
Consensus last week, backup quarterback this week, and the market already moved the right amount.
If Flores’s heavy boxes hold the run the way they did in the last two meetings, Chicago’s drives get longer and fewer.
The Patriots went 4.5 to 5.5 early in the week and have been drifting back since. Circa caught the top of the move. The model, the stale number and Pittsburgh’s defense all point the same way.
YES — 1.1, over the bar. Master Sheet NE −2.9 after the regrade (NE 67.55 → 63.55), Hoppen composite NE −4.4. Blended with Circa’s book: NE −4.4. Joey Porter Jr. isn’t in the sheet yet; docking him leaves about 1.0.
YES. Circa’s own sportsbook is at 5 flat, and so are Bovada and BetUS. The contest’s 5.5 is a half-point the live market has taken away — the stale Thursday number, straight from the source.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary | Off WEPA | Def WEPA | D vs run | D vs pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers | #14 | #3 | #5 | #29 | #1 | #10 | #1 |
| Patriots | #13 | #16 | #1 | #21 | #12 | #7 | #19 |
WEPA ranks are one game. Read them against the opponent each team faced — a #1 against the league’s worst unit is not a #1.
The total. Low totals make points more valuable — five and a half in a game projected around 23–18 is a big cushion.
Pittsburgh’s Week 1 defense (−0.23/play). New England’s offense was #21, and its run game #31 on Hoppen’s chart.
The contest number against every live book this morning. Chris took Pittsburgh on a line move last week and it paid.
Joey Porter Jr. (back) ruled out Friday; Pittsburgh’s secondary is PFF’s #5 unit and he’s its best cover man. Worth about half a point.
New England’s Week 1 pressure rate against Pittsburgh’s #25 protection. If the Patriots win that matchup early, the Steelers’ offense can’t keep this inside a touchdown.
The only game on the slate where the blend clears 1.0, with the stale half-point confirmed on Circa’s own board.
Pittsburgh’s defense plus New England’s broken run game.
The biggest non-injury-to-a-star move on the board is really a quarterback move: Atlanta is on its third option. The market repriced four points and is still leaning Carolina. Circa gives you the favorite below the key number.
NO — model ALARM, and this time both legs agree. Master Sheet ATL −1.4 (Atlanta’s QB still graded 10.0), Hoppen composite CAR −0.9 (published Wednesday, before the Tua news). Model ATL −0.3 against CAR −2.5: a 2.8-point gap. Excluded from the fair line — but note that it points the other way.
YES. Circa’s own book has CAR −2.5 at −120 and Bovada is at −3: the market wants 3 and the contest gives 2.5 flat. Favorite below the key number. And it’s the side the field will be on.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary | Off WEPA | Def WEPA | D vs run | D vs pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | #26 | #15 | #14 | #8 | #30 | #24 | #30 |
| Falcons | #9 | #32 | #17 | #32 | #5 | #5 | #5 |
WEPA ranks are one game. Read them against the opponent each team faced — a #1 against the league’s worst unit is not a #1.
The move. It happened on quarterback news, which is the one kind of move the market almost always gets right.
Penix out, Tua doubtful, Rush starting. Rush’s Week 1 is Atlanta’s actual quarterback sample, not a fluke from someone else.
The Master Sheet. Hoppen’s composite, which already dropped Atlanta to #29, still only has Carolina by 0.9. Both of our sources say this line moved too far.
Atlanta’s defense in EPA/play and success rate. A defense that good at home can drag a bad offense to a field-goal game.
Below the three with the market on it. Take it so you don’t fall behind the room; don’t size it like a read.
Atlanta’s defense against Carolina’s, with a third-string quarterback on one side.
The market moved three points on one game: Cleveland lost 34–10 at Jacksonville, Tampa lost a shootout at Cincinnati. No injury explains the gap between the model and the line — this is a pure argument about how much one Sunday should count.
LEAN, under the bar. Master Sheet TB −7.0, Hoppen composite TB −8.1 (Cleveland now #32 of 32). Blended: TB −8.05, 0.45 on Cleveland.
SPLIT. Circa’s book 8.5, Bovada 8, BetUS 9 (+100). Early money was 92% on Tampa. The Circa research is blunt: the least-picked sides went 24-51-1.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary | Off WEPA | Def WEPA | D vs run | D vs pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | #31 | #12 | #12 | #24 | #27 | #20 | #31 |
| Buccaneers | #3 | #11 | #15 | #7 | #19 | #25 | #14 |
WEPA ranks are one game. Read them against the opponent each team faced — a #1 against the league’s worst unit is not a #1.
Three points on one result. Commandment 9 exists for moves like this.
Cleveland’s preseason D-line and secondary grades. The forward-looking units say the Week 1 defense was an outlier, not the team.
How the least-picked deciles have done in the Circa Million. The field is sharp; being contrarian alone is a losing strategy.
Cleveland’s Master Sheet quarterback grade — the lowest in the league. When the offense is this limited, a Week 1 blowout is closer to the true level than it looks.
Both columns are arguable and neither is proven. Stay away is a position.
If you want the buy-low exposure, take it where you’re not competing with a sharp field.
Sharp flagged this in June as one of only two games all season with Cincinnati getting points. Collins’s hamstring moved the model; it didn’t move the market. When the number you trust and the number that’s right most often disagree on the same news, the market has usually seen something you haven’t.
LEAN. Master Sheet HOU −0.4, Hoppen composite HOU −2.4. Blended: HOU −2.1, 0.45 on Cincinnati; about 0.6 once Collins comes off the sheet.
NO. Circa’s book −2.5 (−115), Bovada −2.5 (−120): the juice leans Houston. A dog at +2.5 loses every three-point Houston win.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary | Off WEPA | Def WEPA | D vs run | D vs pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals | #20 | #8 | #18 | #23 | #17 | #27 | #8 |
| Texans | #27 | #2 | #2 | #13 | #23 | #4 | #32 |
WEPA ranks are one game. Read them against the opponent each team faced — a #1 against the league’s worst unit is not a #1.
Houston’s WEPA rank against the pass after Buffalo. PFF has Houston’s secondary #2 preseason — backward and forward disagree hard, which is the signal to wait a week.
EPA per play Cincinnati allows to power runs. Houston’s best path without Collins runs right through it.
The key-number position. Dogs want to be on or above the number; this one is below it.
Back, but full practice all week and “overwhelmingly likely” to play. If he’s out, it’s Joe Flacco and the whole read flips.
Two sources say Cincinnati; the market and the key number say no. Commandment 2 wants both columns, and this has one.
Hoppen’s power-run note plus the loss of the team’s best receiver.
Baltimore scored 41 in Week 1 and the market added a point; New Orleans lost in overtime at Detroit and got nothing for it. Chris’s regrade took Zay Flowers out of Baltimore’s receivers and bumped the Saints’ quarterback — and the small edge we had this morning went with it.
NO. Model BAL −8.2 after the regrade (sheet −7.8, composite −8.6). Blended: 0.14 on New Orleans.
NO. Circa’s book 8.5; Bovada 8, BetUS 9. Total fell 48.5 → 46, which helps the dog a little. Not enough.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary | Off WEPA | Def WEPA | D vs run | D vs pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | #16 | #28 | #25 | #14 | #16 | #18 | #17 |
| Ravens | #24 | #7 | #8 | #5 | #10 | #28 | #2 |
WEPA ranks are one game. Read them against the opponent each team faced — a #1 against the league’s worst unit is not a #1.
The total’s drop, with nearly 90% of public tickets on the under. Lower totals make 8.5 points worth more.
New Orleans’s Week 1 at Detroit. A one-point overtime loss on the road bought them nothing in the number.
Baltimore’s explosive run game against New Orleans’s explosive-run defense. The single biggest mismatch in the game points at a Ravens cover.
Baltimore’s offense in Week 1 — built without Flowers doing much of it.
The regrade priced Baltimore’s injuries; so did the market.
Pace (#1 in plays) plus Baltimore’s weak run defense.
The Master Sheet thinks Philadelphia is the second-best team in football and Tennessee the second-worst; Hoppen’s composite thinks it’s a touchdown. The market sits at a touchdown. Philadelphia’s Week 1 offense didn’t settle it.
ALARM. Model PHI −9.5 is an average of −12.2 and −6.9 — a 2.5-point gap to Circa. The Master Sheet over-rates Philadelphia against the market for the second straight week.
NO. Circa’s book −7, Bovada −7, BetUS −7.5. Early money 94% on Philadelphia.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary | Off WEPA | Def WEPA | D vs run | D vs pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eagles | #2 | #4 | #4 | #18 | #13 | #16 | #12 |
| Titans | #29 | #17 | #30 | #30 | #21 | #22 | #25 |
WEPA ranks are one game. Read them against the opponent each team faced — a #1 against the league’s worst unit is not a #1.
Master Sheet and Hoppen composite. Five points apart, and the sheet has been high on Philadelphia against the market two weeks running.
If you take Philadelphia, −7 is the right place to take it — favorites on or below the key.
Philadelphia’s edge rusher (pectoral). Tennessee’s passing game is bad enough that it may not matter; it still costs a few tenths.
Philadelphia’s Week 1 margin over Washington. Their offense hasn’t shown it can win by eight.
If you need a favorite, −7 is the right place to take this one — but there’s no edge.
A bottom-three offense into a top-six pass rush.
The most interesting disagreement on the slate. Week 1 production and Hoppen’s own read say Jacksonville. The Master Sheet, the market’s juice and Sharp’s schedule note say Denver. The opponents each team faced are the tiebreaker.
YES, 0.7 — with the legs seven points apart. Master Sheet DEN −7.4; Hoppen composite DEN −0.2 (JAX −0.3 at his flat 1.5 HFA) after dropping Denver to #17. Model DEN −3.8; blended DEN −3.2.
YES. Circa’s book, Bovada and BetUS all moved to DEN −3 (+100) after the composite came out. The contest’s −2.5 wins every three-point Denver game the live price only pushes. Favorite below the key.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary | Off WEPA | Def WEPA | D vs run | D vs pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars | #30 | #9 | #9 | #4 | #8 | #15 | #6 |
| Broncos | #1 | #6 | #3 | #31 | #31 | #32 | #9 |
WEPA ranks are one game. Read them against the opponent each team faced — a #1 against the league’s worst unit is not a #1.
The single most important context on the slate. Every Week 1 rank in this game is really a rank of the opponent.
Sharp’s summer note: “Jacksonville must play at elevation in Denver in Week 2 … an adjustment for teams, particularly early in the season.”
Denver’s preseason PFF O-line, secondary and Master Sheet rank. The forward-looking grades have Denver as a top-three roster.
Denver’s Week 1 rush EPA allowed, against Jacksonville’s #1 rush success. If Coen can run from heavy sets, the altitude argument cuts the other way.
His Week 2 write-up leans Jacksonville, and his composite has this near a pick’em (JAX −0.3 at a 1.5-point home field). The market moved to 3 after both were published — we’re siding with the money, and naming the dissent.
Favorite below the three with the market juicing toward it. The opponent adjustment is the stat edge.
The disagreement is about who’s better, not by how much.
The Chargers dropped two points from the summer after losing to Arizona; the Raiders gained credibility beating Miami. The Raiders’ defense is the best unit on the field. The model’s small lean toward them doesn’t survive Bowers.
LEAN ONLY. Master Sheet LAC −7.2 after Bowers came off, Hoppen composite LAC −4.6. Blended: 0.2 on Las Vegas.
NO. Circa’s book 6.5; Bovada −6.5 (−115) and BetUS −7 lean Chargers.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary | Off WEPA | Def WEPA | D vs run | D vs pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | #18 | #24 | #28 | #22 | #4 | #2 | #10 |
| Chargers | #7 | #23 | #11 | #26 | #25 | #23 | #27 |
WEPA ranks are one game. Read them against the opponent each team faced — a #1 against the league’s worst unit is not a #1.
Las Vegas generated pressure on 56.8% of dropbacks. The Chargers allowed only 28.6% (#3). Strength on strength.
The Chargers lost two points of respect on one home loss.
Doubtful. He is most of the Raiders’ passing game.
The Chargers’ offense. A 6.5-point favorite that can’t run and didn’t pass well is hard to lay.
Two weak offenses and no mispricing.
The best unit on the field is a defense.
One of these two leaves 0-2 with two division losses. Both units that matter — Washington’s offense, Dallas’s defense — have first-time play-callers who had bad Week 1s. The number is right.
NO. Master Sheet DAL −5.7, Hoppen composite DAL −3.4: model −4.5, blended −4.2.
NO. DAL −4 at Circa’s book, Bovada and BetUS.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary | Off WEPA | Def WEPA | D vs run | D vs pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | #32 | #25 | #31 | #17 | #14 | #8 | #16 |
| Cowboys | #17 | #13 | #20 | #6 | #32 | #30 | #29 |
WEPA ranks are one game. Read them against the opponent each team faced — a #1 against the league’s worst unit is not a #1.
EPA per play Dallas allowed in nickel. Washington’s best plan is to live there.
Daniels against the blitz. Dallas’s best plan is to send it.
Dallas’s offense, against a Washington defense that was #4 in pressure and #2 in early-down success.
Washington loses its best linebacker — roughly cancels Hooker.
The most interesting football game at 4:25 and the most accurately priced.
Two defenses with first-week problems; Dallas’s is worse and now missing a starting safety.
The largest line move of the week — ten in the summer, six on reopen, four now — is the market pricing a backup quarterback and an Arizona team that just won at the Chargers. Circa caught the full move.
LEAN, both legs agree. Master Sheet SEA −5.0 with Lock graded in; Hoppen composite SEA −5.0. Blended with the market: SEA −4.4, 0.4 on Seattle.
LEANS THE OTHER WAY. Circa’s book −4, Bovada −3.5, BetUS juicing Arizona +4 (−115). Six points of move since the summer; it may not be done.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary | Off WEPA | Def WEPA | D vs run | D vs pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks | #15 | #5 | #6 | #15 | #2 | #1 | #18 |
| Cardinals | #22 | #31 | #26 | #10 | #15 | #9 | #15 |
WEPA ranks are one game. Read them against the opponent each team faced — a #1 against the league’s worst unit is not a #1.
Summer lookahead to Thursday. Six points of move, most of it on Darnold.
Seattle’s defense travels regardless of who plays quarterback.
A backup auditioning for a job, behind a line that allowed 55.6% pressure.
Arizona’s Week 1 win at the Chargers.
Both of our numbers say the market over-moved on the backup quarterback. Commandment 9: buy the team that lost its starter, sell the team that just won.
Sharp money pushed the total from 43.5 to 41 after the Darnold news.
San Francisco beat the Rams 37–7; Miami lost at Las Vegas. The market added three points, and the in-season numbers agree: Hoppen’s composite has Miami #31 of 32, and Chris’s sheet has them last.
NO. Master Sheet SF −13.2, Hoppen composite SF −11.9. Blended: SF −12.8, 0.2 on Miami. Yesterday’s alarm was the preseason sim; the in-season composite closed it.
NO. 13 everywhere; BetUS juicing San Francisco. Survivor players are all over the 49ers.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary | Off WEPA | Def WEPA | D vs run | D vs pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | #25 | #30 | #32 | #28 | #18 | #21 | #13 |
| 49ers | #10 | #20 | #24 | #9 | #7 | #13 | #7 |
WEPA ranks are one game. Read them against the opponent each team faced — a #1 against the league’s worst unit is not a #1.
San Francisco’s rush success and EPA/drive allowed.
Miami’s preseason D-line and secondary grades. The forward-looking side agrees with Week 1.
Double-digit favorites are a public magnet. Commandment 5: San Francisco was #8 on the Master Sheet preseason, not a league-best team.
Miami’s best pass rusher is out, which only widens the gap.
The stale number runs against the side the model likes.
The #1 rush success rate into a defense missing its best rusher.
The line has held at 6.5 all week with the public heavily on the Chiefs — which, at a Sunday-night game, tells you the books are comfortable. The model’s small Colts lean is the kind of edge that disappears under Commandment 2.
NO. Master Sheet KC −5.6, Hoppen composite KC −6.9. Blended: 0.2 on Indianapolis.
NO. 6.5 at Circa’s book and BetUS; Bovada 6.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary | Off WEPA | Def WEPA | D vs run | D vs pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colts | #4 | #18 | #16 | #27 | #28 | #26 | #28 |
| Chiefs | #8 | #19 | #23 | #19 | #3 | #6 | #3 |
WEPA ranks are one game. Read them against the opponent each team faced — a #1 against the league’s worst unit is not a #1.
Kansas City’s run game into Indianapolis’s run defense.
Kansas City’s Week 1 CPOE, last in the league.
Knee; full practice, no designation reported. Watch warmups.
Questionable (calf).
No price edge.
The biggest unit mismatch in the game.
The Rams lost by thirty and the market still has them laying a touchdown at −115. Yesterday’s books were at 7.5; after the Puka news Circa’s own book is back to 7, so the stale half-point is gone. What’s left: a favorite on the key number, a regraded model that still says 7.9, and a Giants offense that padded its Week 1 against Dallas.
YES, small. Master Sheet LAR −9.7 after the regrade, Hoppen composite LAR −6.2 (Rams #2 of 32). Model −7.9; blended −7.5 — 0.5 on Los Angeles, sitting on the key number.
SMALL. Circa’s book −7 (−115), BetUS −7 (−115), Bovada −7. Juice leans the Rams. The Giants’ #2 offense came against Dallas’s #32 defense — the public is buying one game.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary | Off WEPA | Def WEPA | D vs run | D vs pass |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | #23 | #21 | #27 | #3 | #20 | #12 | #23 |
| Rams | #11 | #1 | #7 | #25 | #29 | #31 | #22 |
WEPA ranks are one game. Read them against the opponent each team faced — a #1 against the league’s worst unit is not a #1.
Circa’s own book this morning. A favorite on the key number, with the juice on our side.
The defense the Giants’ #2 offense came against. Opponent-adjusted, their Week 1 tells you very little.
Hoppen’s Week 2 composite still has the Rams second in football after the 37–7. Commandment 5 — a big favorite in the league.
The Rams lost by thirty at home. Chris’s regrade cut the quarterback from 18 to 15.
A Monday game with the Rams’ best receiver questionable after Saturday’s deadline. If he’s out and the line drops to 6.5, this closes against us.
On the key number, juice our way, and a regraded model still past it. Smaller than we sold it at 7 a.m.
If you only believe the Rams are the better team, the outright avoids the 7.
Every game read against all three sources. The number in brass is the blend; the meter beside it shows how far apart the sources actually are — which is usually where the edge lives. Every game carries the two-edge test: a statistical edge alone is half an edge. The card is below.
Backward-looking and forward-looking answer different questions. Hoppen’s matchup charts and Sharp’s splits are 2025 production — what a unit did. The Master Sheet and the unit rankings are 2026 projection — what a unit is now. Where they disagree, the disagreement is the signal: a unit that graded badly last year and ranks well now is the offseason showing up, and the market may still be pricing the old version. Treating that gap as one source being wrong is how we produced a confident, published, incorrect finding on 09-10.
Every card above shows all four numbers plus Circa’s. Where a source has nothing to say on a game, it says so rather than being quietly filled in.
Now the strongest play on the card — and the only one all four sources agree on. Master Sheet: LV −2.55. Hoppen sim: LV −1.62. Sharp’s summer market: LV −3.0. Circa is at −3.5 — past every one of them. Hoppen’s matchup charts explain why: Las Vegas is #32 in EPA/play, EPA/drive, early-down EPA, rush EPA, rush success and plays per game, while Miami’s ordinary offense meets an ordinary Raiders defense. Sharp adds the structural note — worst run blocking of any team since 2013, and a quarterback who has never won a game where the opponent scored 15. 2026 units are the one dissent: Miami grades #30 D-line and #32 secondary, which is how this loses. Line moved toward Vegas, so we buy low, and take the hook through 3.
Holds, with the risk named exactly. Master Sheet: GB −0.73. Hoppen sim: MIN −0.63 — a pick’em from two directions. Sharp’s summer market had Green Bay favored here ("dogs vs GB, DET, BUF" on his Minnesota sheet), and Circa now gives them 1.5. Hoppen’s charts show why it should be close to even: Green Bay is #4 in EPA/play and #2 in pass EPA against a #28 Minnesota offense. But they also isolate the losing path — Green Bay allowed pressure on 42.4% of dropbacks (#30) into the #1 pressure and #1 blitz defense in football, and 2026 units grade the Packers’ line #28, the same warning from the forward-looking side. Sharp’s Love research is the counterweight: #2 in EPA when blitzed. Market column still unproven — the summer move is most likely Parsons.
Thinner than we sold it. Master Sheet: NYG +4.2. Hoppen sim: NYG +0.6. Sharp’s summer market: NYG +2.5. Circa at +3.0 is past three of the four, which is the case. Sharp supplies the market vulnerability — Dallas went 2–8 ATS as a favorite and 1–4 as a road favorite, a repeating public overlay. But Hoppen’s charts push back hard: Dallas’s offense is top-five and the Giants are #32 in rush EPA, rush success and explosive rush allowed. 2026 units agree with the pushback — Dallas is better at all three graded units. Dallas running at New York is the cleanest mismatch in the game and it runs against our side. Keep it small, and the over is the better expression.
Forced, and labeled forced. The slate produced three. Commandment 8 says let the bets find you; a five-pick quota is a machine for breaking it. Whatever fills these slots is the cost of entry, not a read — and the honest candidates are the smallest numbers left, not the biggest edges.
Every game page on this site now carries the two-edge test. A model disagreeing with a line is column one only — that is half an edge, and half an edge is a losing bet. Column two asks a different question: why is this number wrong, and who put it there? Public overlay on a famous team, a stale line, an overreaction to last season, a move that already happened. If column two is blank, the verdict is stay away — not a smaller bet.
Stay away is the most common verdict here, and that is the point. Eleven of fifteen this week. A process that finds a bet in most games is a broken process.
Total under and Maye passing under. Maye is #36 of 36 in net Y/A against Cover 6; Seattle ran it on 51% of snaps in the Super Bowl against a 25% baseline — and won.
STAY AWAY — no market case, derivatives only| Master Sheet | SEA −0.8 |
| Hoppen sim | SEA −3.4 |
| Sharp look | — |
| Circa | SEA −3.0 |
Total over. Neither defense can reach the quarterback — Tampa only pressures by blitzing the league's fastest release, Cincinnati rushes four more than anyone into a top-3 line.
STAY AWAY on the side — the total is the play| Master Sheet | CIN −5.25 |
| Hoppen sim | CIN −3.1 |
| Sharp look | — |
| Circa | CIN −3.5 |
Saints team total under and Detroit first half. New Orleans posted a −93 first-quarter margin, the worst by any team this century, and is dead last in explosive plays.
STAY AWAY — Sharp’s line matched Circa exactly| Master Sheet | DET −6.8 |
| Hoppen sim | DET −5.3 |
| Sharp look | DET −7.0 |
| Circa | DET −7.0 |
First half under. The worst first-half offense in football against the second-worst — Sharp's own data says only the Jets were worse than Tennessee at stalling out early. Both teams score in garbage time.
STAY AWAY — removed. Opposite signs + buying high| Master Sheet | NYJ −0.7 |
| Hoppen sim | TEN −3.0 |
| Sharp look | TEN −3.0 |
| Circa | TEN −1.5 |
Colts first quarter and Ravens team total under. Lamar was dead last of 36 quarterbacks in red-zone EPA; Indianapolis's one defensive strength is the red zone. Baltimore drives and kicks.
STAY AWAY — real matchup edge, no market case| Master Sheet | BAL −3.8 |
| Hoppen sim | BAL −2.1 |
| Sharp look | BAL −3.5 |
| Circa | BAL −3.5 |
Under. Two of the slowest, heaviest, least explosive offenses in football — Rodgers threw 10+ yards downfield less than any quarterback in the league, and both teams sit bottom-six in three-receiver sets.
STAY AWAY — Steelers’ run game is the live angle| Master Sheet | PIT −4.6 |
| Hoppen sim | PIT −3.0 |
| Sharp look | PIT −3.7 |
| Circa | PIT −3.5 |
Bears first half and the run game. Chicago is #1 in the NFL in yards before contact; Carolina is #31 in yards before contact allowed. Bryce Young threw 20+ yards on 1.0% of first-quarter attempts — last of 643 QB seasons.
STAY AWAY — lean flipped to Chicago, still no market case| Master Sheet | CHI −2.05 |
| Hoppen sim | CHI −2.38 |
| Sharp look | CHI −2.5 |
| Circa | CHI −3.0 |
Side corrected off the card. An earlier version had the Rams as a value favorite — that applied their home-field grade to a game in Australia. Removing it lands our number on Circa's exactly.
STAY AWAY — neutral site, dead fair| Master Sheet | LAR −6.2 |
| Hoppen sim | LAR −1.8 |
| Sharp look | — |
| Circa | LAR −4.0 |
Cleveland +8.5 — on the contest card. Jacksonville is the first team in NFL history with 30+ takeaways after a season of ten or fewer, went 3–0 in field-goal games and faced seven backup QBs. Their home field grades 0.25, second-lowest in the league.
STAY AWAY — removed. Thesis falsified by matchup data| Master Sheet | JAX −5.2 |
| Hoppen sim | JAX −3.6 |
| Sharp look | JAX −7.0 |
| Circa | JAX −8.5 |
Under, and Bills second-half live. Allen took a sack on 32.2% of third-down pressures (#36) into the #2 pressure defense in football — which gets there without blitzing on 37% of dropbacks, above the league average with a blitz.
STAY AWAY — lean was backwards, Buffalo is the side| Master Sheet | HOU +0.3 |
| Hoppen sim | HOU −0.2 |
| Sharp look | HOU +1.5 |
| Circa | HOU +0.5 |
Came off the card. Three points have already moved toward Arizona since summer, so we'd be buying the back end of the move. McBride over is the play — the all-time TE reception record holder against a defense that plays dime on 23% of snaps.
STAY AWAY — removed. 3 pts already moved our way| Master Sheet | LAC −7.9 |
| Hoppen sim | LAC −5.6 |
| Sharp look | LAC −11.5 |
| Circa | LAC −8.5 |
Miami +3.5 — on the contest card. Every source says Las Vegas shouldn't lay more than a field goal. The Raiders had the worst run blocking of any team since 2013 (0.50 yards before contact) and the #32 first-half offense.
DOG — MIA +3.5 · strongest play on the card| Master Sheet | LV −2.6 |
| Hoppen sim | LV −1.6 |
| Sharp look | LV −3.0 |
| Circa | LV −3.5 |
No play — and this is the discipline page. Our sheet said Philadelphia by twelve. 31% of that gap is the Eagles' secondary, which both Hoppen and Sharp independently name as the hole on the roster. We threw our own number out.
STAY AWAY — our audit retracted, market is right| Master Sheet | PHI −12.2 ✗ |
| Hoppen sim | PHI −4.7 |
| Sharp look | PHI −5.5 |
| Circa | PHI −4.5 |
Green Bay +1.5 — the strongest signal on the board. Sharp's schedule sheets list Minnesota as a dog to Green Bay at home; Circa gives us a point and a half. Love is #1 in clean-pocket EPA and #2 when blitzed, against the #1 blitz defense — now missing Greenard, Allen and Hargrave.
DOG — GB +1.5 · statistical column only| Master Sheet | GB −0.7 |
| Hoppen sim | MIN −0.6 |
| Sharp look | GB fav |
| Circa | MIN −1.5 |
Giants +3.0 — on the contest card. New York was 1–7 in one-score games (#31) against the hardest schedule in football. Dallas allowed 511 points, the most in the 66-year history of the franchise, and went 1–4 ATS as a road favorite.
DOG — NYG +3.0 · thinner; over is cleaner| Master Sheet | NYG +4.2 |
| Hoppen sim | NYG +0.6 |
| Sharp look | NYG +2.5 |
| Circa | NYG +3.0 |
Corrected 09-09, after Circa posted. Sharp's "stated lines" turned out to match Circa exactly on both games where he had one — they're market lookahead numbers, not his own projections. His win totals are often the posted Vegas totals too, and Hoppen's sim takes betting markets as a composite input. That leaves the Master Sheet as the only fully independent valuation here — not the most accurate, just the only one able to disagree with the market for a non-market reason.
So the roles now: the market line is the number to beat, the Master Sheet is the independent read whose divergence is the candidate edge, Hoppen is a semi-independent cross-check, and Sharp's prose is what tells you whether a divergence is real. Sharp's value was never the number — it's the why.
And a standing caution: Circa takes the highest limits in the market. A three-point disagreement is better evidence that our inputs are stale than that we found three points of edge.
The disagreement is the analysis — but read what kind of disagreement it is. On Patriots–Seahawks the three sources are 2.8 points apart while all still favoring Seattle: that's a magnitude split, which usually means one source is mispricing something and a side is worth betting. On Jets–Titans they're 3.7 points apart with opposite signs — they can't agree on which team is better at all. That's not a mispricing, it's genuine uncertainty, and the right response is to stay small or off the side entirely and take the derivative.
When they converge — Bucs–Bengals and Saints–Lions — the side is priced and the money moves to totals, team totals and props.
Prefer a stated line to a derived one. Sharp's chapters list projected lines for many games. Where one exists, use it. Where one doesn't, a win-total gap has to be converted to a spread — and that conversion is the weakest link in this whole system.
Calibrated 09-09: against Sharp's three stated lines, a one-win gap in season totals is worth about 1.6 points of head-to-head spread, not the 2.75 originally used here. The reason is that win totals bake in schedule strength as well as team quality — Baltimore's 11.5 comes with the sixth-easiest slate, Indianapolis's 7.5 with one of the hardest, so their four-win gap wildly overstates the gap between the teams. Sharp's own line on that game is −3.5; his win totals would say −9.75. Every number on this site has been recomputed at the corrected rate.
Each sheet carries the counter-case in red. That section exists so nobody at the table gets caught flat-footed; if a partner raises one of those points, it's a fair objection, not a reach. Full write-ups with result lines for grading live in the vault under Betting/Football/Games/.
Talking points from three sources. Numbers on the left, the argument on the right.
NO Only 0.4 pts — our −2.6 against Circa’s −3.0 is inside the noise band.
NO Sharp’s summer number and Circa agree. No movement, no public-side story, nothing to exploit.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | #13 | #16 | #1 |
| Seahawks | #15 | #5 | #6 |
Maye's net Y/A against Cover 6 last season — dead last among every qualifying quarterback at 2.1. Against everything else he's elite: #1 versus non-Cover-6 zone, #7 versus man.
Seattle's Cover 6 rate in the Super Bowl, against a 25% season baseline. They won. Macdonald and Durde are both still in the building — this is a replication question, not a projection.
Games at −0.05 EPA/att or worse: zero in seventeen regular-season games, then four in four playoff games once the league copied Buffalo. Completion rate fell 72% to 58%, Y/A 8.9 to 6.9.
His EPA/att vs Cover 6 — 38% success, 5.9 Y/A. Versus everything else he sits at +0.21 to +0.23. He held the ball 3.15 seconds against it and took a 9.5% sack rate.
New England against playoff teams. They were 12–1 against everyone else. The record is real; the competition wasn't.
Opponent win rate the Patriots faced — the easiest schedule any team has played in 830 team-seasons since 2000.
Seattle against playoff teams — best mark in the NFL — on the eighth-hardest schedule in football.
New England faced the worst schedule of offenses and the worst schedule of quarterbacks in the league. The QB list: Stidham, Ewers, Brady Cook, Huntley, Dart, Flacco, Gabriel, Ward, Rattler. Their #4 scoring defense has not been tested.
Seattle's receiver starters versus their bench — the most top-heavy room in football. Smith-Njigba was roughly 44% of their receiving yards.
Passer rating allowed by Christian Gonzalez, who travels with JSN. New England gave up 6.3 Y/A with him on the field and 7.9 without. The Master Sheet has their secondary tied for the best DB grade in the league.
Shaheed's regular-season touchdowns as a Seahawk. Kupp is at 2.9 catches a game. If Gonzalez erases JSN, there is no Plan B.
Seattle's running back room — the largest single-unit decline in the NFL. Walker to Kansas City, Charbonnet's February ACL surgery, and Price grading out as the lowest-rated first-round back since 2000.
Fleury is the third play-caller in three seasons and a first-time caller. Sharp calls losing Kubiak more significant than losing any player.
Seattle's 12-personnel EPA under Kubiak — that's the scheme that just walked out the door, and Fleury is installing a tight-end-heavy offense through a TE room Hoppen ranks 27th.
Darnold's turnovers — most in the NFL, costing 100.2 EPA. Seattle was 31st in giveaways and 32nd in fumbles lost.
A.J. Brown's YPRR on 420 career routes with his QB under center, and Maye ranks 10th in under-center rate. Brown pulls safeties out of the box — that is the actual structural antidote to quarters coverage, and it's brand new information the Super Bowl tape doesn't have.
New England's yards per carry over the final nine games — best in the league, on a 41% success rate. They're already 4th in 21 personnel. If Seattle sits in two-high, the counter is to run at light boxes.
Both offenses were elite early: NE #1 in first-half points (17.4/gm, +135 halftime margin), Seattle #1 in first-quarter margin. This is how the under dies before halftime.
Milton Williams played twelve. With him New England was #1 in nearly every run-defense metric — one back carry over 12 yards in 151 attempts. Without him, league average. The whole run defense is one man.
| Market line | Read |
|---|---|
| SEA −1 or better | Best spot. Below every source; Hoppen and Sharp both see 2.5+ points of value. |
| SEA −1.5 to −2.5 | Around the blend. Value on the two deeper sources, roughly fair on the sheet. Solid lean. |
| SEA −3 to −3.5 | At the top of the source range. Thin — Hoppen and Sharp still support it, the sheet doesn't. Total is the better bet here. |
| SEA −4 to −5 | Past all three. Pass the side. |
| SEA −6 or worse | Champion premium paid. New England +points becomes live, with the Master Sheet's QB grade as the supporting argument — but note that's the thinnest of the three sources carrying the case. |
Cleanest expression. Doesn't require picking a winner and survives either team simply being sloppy in Week 1. Vrabel is also 4th-lowest in the league going for it on short 4th downs.
Isolates the Cover 6 edge without needing the spread or total to cooperate.
Seattle's backs go 41% success in quarters 1–3 and 29% in the fourth, against eight-man boxes on 56% of Q4 carries. If they lead late without Walker or Charbonnet, drives stall and the clock stops.
Moneyline note: the Master Sheet's fair price is SEA −108, Hoppen's win gap implies closer to −190. Wide range, so don't treat either as the fair price. Practically: if Seattle's ML sits near −120 or better while the spread is −4 or −5, the ML holds the position more efficiently than laying the points.
The three sources land in a two-point band around Cincinnati −3.8. Little edge on the side, real edge on the total — where the structural read is unusually clean.
NO 0.3 pts. All three sources converge on the side — convergence is the opposite of edge.
NO No line movement story. The market and our sources are looking at the same game the same way.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | #3 | #11 | #15 |
| Bengals | #20 | #8 | #18 |
Tampa Bay blitzes at the 5th-highest rate in the NFL (31%, 185 blitzes) because it's the only way they generate pressure — their non-blitz pressure rate is 29%, 24th. Burrow is blitzed at the lowest rate of any quarterback over the last four years and gets rid of it inside 2.5 seconds more than anyone alive. Tampa's only pressure plan is the one thing Burrow eats.
Tampa's pass defense with Jamel Dean on the field versus off, in EPA/att, over two seasons — 89 passer rating allowed with him, 112 without. Dean is in Pittsburgh now. The secondary is permanently stuck in the "off" column.
Cincinnati's Master Sheet receiver grade — the maximum on the scale, tied with Dallas for the best WR room in the league. Chase and Higgins put up 184 catches, 2,258 yards and 19 TD with Burrow missing most of the year.
Tampa's sack rate when they blitz (24th), producing 11 sacks on 185 blitzes. And opposing QBs posted the 5th-best EPA/dropback in the league when Tampa did pressure them. The pressure doesn't convert even when it arrives.
Cincinnati rushed four on 79% of dropbacks — most in the NFL — and blitzed on 17%, least in the NFL. That four-man rush got pressure inside 2.5 seconds on 15% of dropbacks, 31st. Now it meets Tampa's offensive line, which grades #4 in Sharp's units and tied 3rd-best on the Master Sheet with Wirfs allowing 2 sacks all year.
What Cincinnati allowed when their front seven failed to generate pressure — 29th. Sharp's point is that the corners were fine; the pass rush was the problem. Mayfield should see clean pockets.
Tampa's red-zone TD rate allowed: 69.8%, dead last in football and the 5th-worst mark in five years. Goal-to-go 88%, 28th. Cincinnati's problem is turning drives into field goals — Tampa is the defense that fixes that for them.
Fourth-quarter points Cincinnati allowed last year — 2nd-most in the NFL, with a −31 fourth-quarter margin and zero fourth-quarter comebacks.
Tampa Bay last season — the worst against-the-spread record in Sharp's entire 2025 table. The market has been overpaying for this team for a full year.
Tampa's turnover margin (6th) and penalty margin (2nd), plus +3.6 fumble recoveries over expectation (7th) and the 3rd-best net penalty EPA. Three separate non-repeating gifts stacked into an 8–9 season.
Tampa wins that came by one score — 75%, 4th-highest. Their win list is backup quarterbacks and losing teams: Penix, Tyrod, Rattler, Brissett, Young, Mac Jones.
Cincinnati's EPA lost to turnovers — 3rd-worst in the league — plus 3–5 in one-score games and trailing in 16 of 17 games. Their luck ran the opposite way. Both teams regressing to neutral moves the number toward Cincinnati.
Cincinnati has ranked 27th or worse in pass-block win rate five straight seasons (#30, #30, #27, #32, #28) — the only team in the league that can say that — and this offseason they spent no top-100 pick and signed no free-agent lineman. Same five starters. Master Sheet grades the line 7.4, bottom third.
Cincinnati's record with Burrow versus without. He's missed significant time in three of six seasons, behind that line. This is the single biggest variable in the whole handicap and it's binary.
Cincinnati's defense last year: dead last in yards per play (6.2), 300 points allowed through nine games (2nd-most since the 1970 merger), and eight straight games allowing 27+ points and 350+ yards — the first time that's ever happened in NFL history. Al Golden was retained anyway.
Tampa's offensive health rank last year. Their five most important non-quarterbacks shared the field in three games all season. Mayfield now gets a McVay-tree OC who coached him with the 2022 Rams, in a contract year — Hribar's headline is that this passing game bounces back.
| Market line | Read — blend is CIN −3.8 |
|---|---|
| CIN −2.5 or less | Value on Cincinnati. Below every source. The best price to lay it. |
| CIN −3 to −4 | On the blend. Fair. Thin at best — play the total instead. |
| CIN −4.5 to −5.5 | On the Master Sheet, past Hoppen and Sharp. No edge. Pass. |
| CIN −6 or more | Tampa plus the points. Past every source, and squarely in the overpriced-favorite spot both Hoppen and Sharp warn about. Tampa is also rarely blown out — smallest range of outcomes in the league per Hoppen. |
Both defenses have a structural reason they can't reach the quarterback. Both team notes pre-registered this independently — Hoppen's Bengals read says "elite passing O + bad D = shootouts," and his Bucs read says games versus elite passing offenses lean over.
Max-grade WR room against a secondary that lost the corner whose on/off split was 11th to 32nd. The Tampa note already flags "opponent WR1 props over" as a season-long angle.
Neither team can come back. Cincinnati went 0–9 when trailing entering the fourth with zero comebacks all year; Tampa went 0–8 when trailing at half and their largest deficit overcome all season was seven points.
This game has the two most disruptive nose tackles in football on opposite sidelines. Dexter Lawrence has 108 QB pressures from nose tackle since 2022 — first by a mile. Vita Vea is second, at 32. Cincinnati traded the 10th overall pick for Lawrence, the first top-10 pick the franchise has ever surrendered for a player.
Sharp's head-coach ranks for Zac Taylor and Todd Bowles — Taylor fell from 18th with no panel vote higher than 20th; Bowles dropped from 14th and is openly on the hot seat. Master Sheet grades them 5.0 and 5.5, both bottom-tier. Two desperate staffs raises variance in exactly the late-game decisions that decide one-score games.
Sharp's book projects this exact game, so we have a real line to check against rather than a derived one — and the Master Sheet lands within two-tenths of it.
NO 0.6 pts. Noise.
NO Sharp’s stated line matched Circa exactly at DET −7.0. A market that agrees with itself is not a vulnerable one.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saints | #16 | #28 | #25 |
| Lions | #19 | #10 | #21 |
New Orleans' first-quarter point margin last season — the worst by any team this century. 29 first-quarter points scored (#32) against 122 allowed (#31), averaging 1.7 first-quarter points per game.
On the opening drive of games the Saints ranked 32nd in three-and-out rate, 32nd in EPA/play, 31st in yards per drive, 31st in score rate and 30th in points per drive. Kellen Moore's scripting was the single worst in football.
Games in which New Orleans trailed at some point — the most in the NFL. They have not led early against anybody.
Saints' rate of 20+ yard plays — dead last in the league, with 10+ yard plays 23rd and success rate 26th. Now hold that thought for the next section.
Detroit's defensive weakness is specific: Sheppard's man-heavy scheme "sprang explosive leaks" once McNeill and the secondary were compromised, and they allowed 7.3 Y/A (24th). New Orleans is dead last in the NFL at generating explosive plays. The Saints are uniquely badly equipped to attack the one thing Detroit is bad at.
Detroit played base personnel — three linebackers — on 63% of snaps, most in the NFL, with nickel at just 34% (dead last) and zero dime snaps all year. New Orleans runs 11 personnel on 66.7% of plays, 4th-most. If Detroit stays stubborn in base, that's a linebacker on a slot receiver. Watch the first series.
Detroit's pass-block win rate last season, down from 12th — and Goff was still sacked a career-high 38 times (7th most) and hit 117 times, 2nd most in football. That was behind a better line than the one he has now.
New Orleans' sack total (10th) on only the 22nd-ranked pressure rate — one of just three teams with two double-digit sack rushers. Cameron Jordan had 10.5 in his 15th season and Chase Young a career-high 10.0 at an 18.1% pressure rate.
Only Penei Sewell remains from Detroit's 2024 starting five — and he's moving to left tackle for the first time in his career. First-round rookie Blake Miller takes over at right tackle; center Cade Mays has a wrist injury costing significant time. Hoppen names the offensive line as Detroit's X-factor.
Goff's passer rating from a clean pocket — 2nd in the NFL, with 83.7% clean-pocket accuracy (2nd) and 0.17 EPA/att with no pressure (5th). The entire game reduces to one question: can New Orleans get to him?
New Orleans' defense in EPA/play — and Hoppen and Sharp independently landed on the exact same figure. The Saints went from 30th to 9th in yards allowed per game (299.8) in Staley's first year, with #7 success rate and #6 yards/play. This defense is legitimately good and the market may not know it yet.
Detroit's 2025 luck stack: 32nd in fumble luck (−7.0 recoveries versus expectation), 30th in field-goal luck, 30th in net penalty EPA, plus 3–5 in one-score games after going 7–2 the year before. They had the best point differential in the NFC North (+68) and finished last.
Detroit's health rank last season — 31st overall and dead last on defense. Sharp lists the injury regression as the strongest over-side argument in either source. It's genuinely hard to be that unlucky twice.
New Orleans' red-zone TD rate — dead last — and their goal-to-go rate was also 44.4% against a 74.4% league average, the worst mark since 2017. Their field-goal percentage was 71.4%, also 32nd. These are the most regressable numbers in football and they only move one direction.
Demario Davis signed with the Jets — 143 tackles, team tackle leader for eight straight seasons, PFF's highest-graded Saint. Sharp centers his departure as the thing most likely to unwind that top-10 defense.
| Market line | Read — blend is DET −6.4 |
|---|---|
| DET −5 or less | Value on Detroit. Below the blend and below Sharp's own projection. |
| DET −6 to −7 | On the blend and on Sharp's stated line. No edge. Play a derivative instead. |
| DET −7.5 or more | New Orleans plus the points. Past every source. The Saints went 9–8 ATS as near-permanent dogs (average line +4.1) and their defense travels better than their offense does. |
The cleanest play. An offense 28th in points per drive and dead last in explosive plays, on the road, against a defense whose only real flaw is giving up explosives. New Orleans went 5–12 to the over last year — unders cashed in 12 of 17.
New Orleans is 32nd in first-quarter points, 32nd in first-drive EPA and posted the worst first-quarter margin of any team this century, and they trailed at some point in all seventeen games.
A line that was 31st in pass-block win rate with four of five starters replaced, against the one Saints unit that's genuinely good. Goff was hit 117 times behind a better group.
This is the easiest schedule in the NFL against the second-easiest. Both teams' win totals are schedule-inflated and both sources say so about both teams — Hoppen calls Detroit's slate "Charmin soft" and says the sim likes them for who they play, not how good they are.
Both kicking games were disasters last year — Detroit 30th in field-goal luck (Bates at 79.4%, 4-of-9 from 50+) and New Orleans dead last at 71.4%. Two teams whose kickers cost them games, in a dome where there's no excuse. Points that went missing last season and shouldn't again.
The sources don't just disagree on the number here — they disagree on which team is better. That's a different problem from a mispriced favorite, and it changes what you bet.
NO The sources have opposite signs — they can’t agree which team is better. That is uncertainty, and Commandment 3 says uncertainty is a stay-away, not a bet.
NO Fails Commandment 9. The number went from Jets +3.0 in summer to +1.5 now. The Jets got a point and a half more expensive — buying this is buying high.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jets | #21 | #29 | #29 |
| Titans | #29 | #17 | #30 |
Tennessee had 56% of its first-half drives reach third down — 2nd-worst in the NFL — and Sharp's note names the only team that was worse: the Jets. The two most stalled-out first-half offenses in football, playing each other in Week 1.
The Jets' cumulative halftime deficit last season — no team since 2000 has been worse. They led at half in 2 of 17 games and trailed at some point in all seventeen.
Tennessee's own first-half point margin (#29), trailing by 5.4 a game at the break on 7.5 first-half points per game. They also trailed at some point in every single game.
The Jets' third quarter was just as dead — 28th in EPA/play, 28th in success rate, 30th in points. Only in the fourth, with games already decided, did they post a #4 success rate. Their scoring is garbage-time scoring, which is exactly why the first half is the cleaner bet than the full game.
Geno Smith's rank in EPA/play among qualified quarterbacks last season — worse than Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor. He also posted a league-high 10.9% sack rate and was sacked on 28% of pressured dropbacks; only Kyler Murray was worse among non-rookies.
Cam Ward's rank in the same metric — dead last. 5.9 Y/A (33rd), 59.8% completions (31st), 55 sacks (tied most in the NFL), sacked on 26% of pressures (36th), and 7 lost fumbles, most in football.
Neither line helps. The Jets allowed pressure inside 2.5 seconds on 24.5% of dropbacks (27th); Tennessee's line graded 30th in Sharp's units and gave up 56 sacks. Two quarterbacks who collapse under pressure, behind two lines that allow it.
The Jets recorded zero interceptions last season — the first team to do that since interceptions became an official statistic in 1933. Four total takeaways, against a prior record low of seven. Turnover margin −19, worst in the league.
They responded by trading for Minkah Fitzpatrick, and added Demario Davis, T'Vondre Sweat, Onyemata, Ossai and Enagbare, plus No. 2 overall pick David Bailey — whose 33.6% college pressure rate was the highest of any player over the last two seasons.
Cam Ward's interceptions and lost fumbles last year. The most turnover-starved defense in NFL history meets the quarterback who gave it away more than anyone. If regression is going to announce itself, this is the spot.
Tennessee's 3–14 came against the hardest schedule in the NFL — .549 opponent win rate, and a league-high ten games each against winning teams and playoff teams. Ward faced nine top-ten pass defenses as a rookie. The Jets' 3–14 came against a normal slate. This is why Hoppen and Sharp favor Tennessee and the Master Sheet doesn't — the sheet grades current talent, they're pricing context.
Sharp's panel ranked Aaron Glenn the 32nd head coach in the NFL — the first time in six years the last-place coach wasn't a rookie. Hoppen calls it "the most pre-fired coaching staff ever." The Master Sheet grades the Jets 4.0 on coaching, tied for lowest in the league. All three sources agree the Jets have the worst staff in football — the sheet just doesn't weight it enough to change its answer.
Tennessee went over in 11 of 17 last season despite that offense — because the defense allowed 8.2 Y/A, dead last. Two bad offenses is not automatically an under when both defenses are also bad. This is the case against a full-game under and the reason to focus on the first half.
Tennessee added No. 4 overall pick Carnell Tate and Wan'Dale Robinson, with Daboll calling plays — and the Jets' pass defense finished last in EPA per attempt allowed at 7.5 Y/A after trading Sauce Gardner. Both team notes independently flag the same angle from opposite ends.
| Market line | Read — blend TEN −1.6, low confidence |
|---|---|
| NYJ favored | Only the Master Sheet agrees. Small Tennessee value, but two of three sources against you is not where to press. |
| Pick'em to TEN −1.5 | Under the blend. Best available side price if you must have one. |
| TEN −2 to −3 | On Sharp's stated line and Hoppen's number, past the blend. Fair to slightly rich. Pass. |
| TEN −4 or more | Jets plus the points. Past every source including both that favor Tennessee. |
The two worst first-half offenses in football, by Sharp's own head-to-head note. Both teams' scoring lives in the fourth quarter after games are decided. Add two new play-callers in Week 1 — Reich for the Jets, Daboll for Tennessee — and early sloppiness is the base case.
Seven interceptions and a league-high seven lost fumbles, against a defense that recorded zero picks all last season and spent the offseason specifically fixing it. Near-mechanical regression meeting the league's most generous quarterback.
When your sources can't agree which team is better, that's not an edge, it's uncertainty. Size accordingly.
These two teams swapped defensive linemen this offseason and now open against each other. T'Vondre Sweat went to the Jets; Jermaine Johnson II went to Tennessee, where Sharp says he "immediately becomes the team's best edge presence." Both face their old team in Week 1.
Tennessee has zero rest-disadvantage games in 2026 — the only team in the NFL — while the Jets have five games with a rest advantage, also league-best. Neither applies in Week 1, but both are worth knowing for the rest of the season.
A referendum on one Achilles tendon. Daniel Jones went down December 7; Week 1 sits at the optimistic end of a standard recovery, and almost everything Indianapolis does well runs through whether defenses respect him.
YES Bigger than our model said. We had 0.28 points. Hoppen has Indianapolis with a top-ten offense and the #1 rushing attack in football by EPA, against a Baltimore defense at #21 in EPA/play and #28 in pressure rate. That is a real matchup edge our team-rating subtraction could not see.
NO But the counter is genuine, not rhetorical. Baltimore is the most condensed offense in the league (#32 in 11 personnel, #1 in heavy box, #1 explosive rush) against an Indianapolis defense built to face spread (#1 in 11 personnel faced). Add Baltimore at #29 in plays per game and the Colts’ edge gets fewer possessions to work with. Sharp’s stated line matched Circa exactly. No market case — but this game deserved the breakdown it now has.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens | #24 | #7 | #8 |
| Colts | #4 | #18 | #16 |
Lamar Jackson's red-zone EPA per attempt last season: −0.53, dead last among all qualifying quarterbacks — the 35th-ranked QB was at −0.24 and the league average is +0.02. One year after he led the NFL at +0.59.
The cause: Baltimore's red-zone pressure rate on Jackson's 51 red-zone dropbacks, against a 35% league average and a next-closest team at 47%. Only Bryce Young's 2023 has been higher since 2014. Their red-zone offense went #1 in 2024 to #28 in 2025.
And Indianapolis's one genuine defensive strength is the red zone — 11th in TD rate allowed (54%) and 10th in takeaways per drive. Sharp's phrase is that "what saved them was the back end of drives." Baltimore's worst area meets Indy's best one.
Baltimore's offensive line by positional spending, with the receivers 4th-cheapest. They were 26th in pass-blocking efficiency and gave up 45 sacks. Then Linderbaum — the only lineman his backs gained positive EPA behind — left for a record guard contract, replaced by a career backup with 10 starts.
Baltimore's pressure rate on non-blitz dropbacks from Week 3 on — dead last, and no team since at least 2016 has finished a season under 20%. They were 28th in overall pressure rate with 30 sacks and 31st in sack rate.
Indianapolis's offensive line — tied 5th-best on the Master Sheet, 11th in Sharp's units, 7th in run-block win rate. All three sources agree it's the clearest edge either team has, and it's pointed straight at the worst four-man rush in a decade.
But Indianapolis's defense is catastrophic before the red zone: 38% of opponent drives reached it, dead last in football, with punts forced on 27% of drives (31st) and 34 yards allowed per drive (30th) — all against the 6th-easiest schedule of offenses.
Steichen's first quarter is the best in football. With a healthy Jones through Week 10 the Colts scored on 52% of opening-quarter drives and reached the red zone on 60%, both #1 against averages of 34% and 33%. Since 2023 his first-quarter offense ranks top-eight in every category across six different starting quarterbacks. Baltimore's defensive coordinator is calling his first game.
Jones tore it in Week 14. Sharp's timeline: 6-8 months per Schefter against a 9-12 month standard — putting Week 1 at the optimistic end. Hoppen calls betting on Achilles-return efficiency "a pretty bad bet."
Jonathan Taylor's EPA per rush through Week 10 versus after — from best in the NFL to 43rd of 46. Same back, same line, same scheme. Only the quarterback changed. Success rate 48% to 36%, 6.0 YPC to 3.3, explosive rate 12% to 3%.
Loaded boxes on Taylor's first-half runs before and after. Sharp's phrase: the run game "lost its oxygen" when defenses stopped respecting the quarterback. Hoppen reaches the same place from formation data — Taylor is far better under center, and a recovering Achilles pushes Jones toward shotgun.
Indianapolis's record in Jones's starts versus everyone else's last season. They also went 7-0 against bottom-16 efficiency teams and 1-9 against the top 16 — and Baltimore is a top-16 team.
Sharp calls this the single best in-season betting trigger in either source: Jackson's career record when he gets 7+ designed runs is 35-9 (80%), versus 44-27 (62%) with six or fewer. Last three years it's 7-1 against 26-16. In the playoffs, 3-1 versus 0-4. His 2025 rushing fell to a career-low 26.9 yards a game.
Jackson's EPA per dropback before and after the Week 4 hamstring. Through four weeks he was #1 in YPA, #3 in EPA, #1 in TD rate and #1 in explosive-gain rate. He was on the injury report in 12 of his last 13 games. Both sources treat 2025 as injury noise, not decline.
Baltimore's first new head coach since 2008, an offensive coordinator who has never called a play in an NFL game, and a defensive coordinator whose last unit finished 24th in points. Hoppen's pre-registered read: "the market may over-trust the brand early." Week 1 is exactly that spot.
One-score records for Baltimore and Indianapolis. Baltimore also went 0-2 in field-goal games and 3-6 at home after winning 23 of their previous 27 there. Both are positive-regression candidates in close games — it cancels out, but neither record reflects the roster.
| Market line | Read — blend BAL −3.1 |
|---|---|
| BAL −2 or less | Value on Baltimore. Below every source including Sharp's stated line. |
| BAL −3 to −3.5 | On the blend and on Sharp's number. Fair. Play a derivative. |
| BAL −5 or more | Colts plus the points. Past all three, and this is a road favorite with a first-time play-caller in Week 1. |
The best scripted first quarter in football — 52% score rate, 60% red-zone rate, both #1, and top-eight across six different quarterbacks since 2023 — against a defensive coordinator calling his first NFL game.
Worst red-zone offense in the league by a distance, behind the third-cheapest line, against the one thing Indianapolis's defense actually does. This profile produces field goals, not touchdowns.
Only if the injury report says Jones is limited or the offense opens shotgun-heavy. Both sources reach this independently, and Taylor's collapse from #1 to 43rd was entirely quarterback-driven. Check Friday.
Live trigger: count Lamar's designed runs in the first half. Seven or more and his career win rate is 80%; six or fewer and it's 62%. No market prices this, and it's visible by the second quarter.
A collision of two opposite second-half collapses: Atlanta's offense dies at halftime, Pittsburgh's defense dies in the fourth quarter. One of those trends has to break, and the total is where that gets paid.
NO 1.1 pts — real but thin, and it rests on the model rather than the football.
NO Circa sits inside Sharp’s summer band. No move, no overlay, no story about who is on the other side.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons | #9 | #32 | #17 |
| Steelers | #14 | #3 | #5 |
Pittsburgh's fourth-quarter score rate allowed per drive was 60.4% — 32nd in the league, and 826th out of 830 team-seasons since 2000. They were also #32 in fourth-quarter drives allowed to reach the red zone (40%), #31 in yards per drive and #30 in punts forced. One of the worst closing defenses of the century.
Atlanta's second-half point margin (#28), including being outscored by 54 in the third quarter alone while averaging 2.88 third-quarter points. Their first half was +32 (#12). Same team, two different seasons, every week.
Bijan Robinson's EPA per rush, first half to second half, out of 49 qualifying backs. He led the NFL in first-half rushing yards (976) at 6.1 YPC. After the break: 4.0 YPC, 5.6% explosive, #47 of 49. Sharp: "It was the largest shift in the NFL" — and the concepts, personnel, down usage and game state all stayed the same.
Games Atlanta led at some point — 82% — on the way to 8–9. Meanwhile Pittsburgh was 3rd in the league in games led at halftime (11) but 31st in losses while leading at half. Neither of these teams can finish.
Share of Rodgers's throws that travelled 10+ yards downfield — the lowest in the NFL against a 33.1% average. He also had the league's quickest release (2.52 sec), its shortest depth of target (6.0 air yards) and a league-high 31.7% of throws at or behind the line. Career-low 3,322 yards and no 300-yard game all season, playoffs included.
Both teams' 11-personnel usage rank — Pittsburgh 38.7%, Atlanta 45.1%. Atlanta runs 12 personnel on 38.2% of snaps, 2nd-most in the league; Pittsburgh runs 13 personnel at the 2nd-highest rate. Two heavy, run-first, clock-killing offenses.
Points per drive: Atlanta 25th, Pittsburgh 16th. Atlanta's third-down conversion rate ranked 30th; Pittsburgh's drives after a kickoff or punt reached the red zone just 25% of the time (#24).
The vault pre-registered this shape from both sides. Pittsburgh's note: "elite defensive front + veteran QB = lots of one-score games — look at unders and small spreads." Atlanta's: "road dogs have some cover equity in ugly, low-scoring games."
Master Sheet defensive-line grades — a 6.8-point gap, the largest single-unit gap in any game we've done. Pittsburgh's front grades 2nd in the league; Atlanta's grades dead last. Corroborated on both sides: Hoppen has Pittsburgh's interior D-line 2nd and edge 3rd in his depth index, and Sharp ranks Atlanta's front seven 31st.
Atlanta got 57 sacks (2nd, franchise record) on only the 15th-ranked pressure rate — Sharp's point being it wasn't repeatable. Then Floyd, Ebiketie, Onyemata and Elliss all left, Jalon Walker tore his ACL, and James Pearce (10.5 rookie sacks) faces a suspension with availability "at best uncertain."
Pittsburgh allowed pressure on 25% of dropbacks — best in the NFL — with the 3rd-best pass-block win rate. The league's worst pass rush against the league's best protection.
Hoppen's stated way to beat Pittsburgh is pressure — he flags their tackle depth at 27th and says pressure-heavy opponents are the matchup. Atlanta is the one team in football that cannot do that. And it matters less than usual anyway: Rodgers was pressured on 26% of dropbacks, lowest of 36 quarterbacks, largely because of his own release.
Sharp's own word for Pittsburgh's 2025. Turnover margin +12 (#4) worth +83.05 net EPA (#2), 12 opponent fumbles recovered (#2), +5.1 net fumble recoveries over expectation (#2), and 7–3 in one-score games with 70% of their wins by one score. They were 9–2 against non-playoff teams and 1–5 against playoff teams. And Tomlin, the man associated with sustaining that, is gone.
Atlanta's fumble luck ran the exact opposite way — 19 fumbles with 10 lost against opponents' 23 with only 7 lost — plus 0–2 in overtime and 3–4 in field-goal-margin games. The 2nd-luckiest fumble team in the league is hosting the 31st. Both regress toward each other.
Pittsburgh fielded the most expensive defense in the NFL ($175M against $85M on offense) and it finished 14th in points per drive. They allowed 259 passing yards a game, 2nd-most in football, and a 54% completion rate on throws of 10+ yards, third-worst. Watt is off a down year with Heyward and Ramsey both past 30.
Sharp calls this the strongest over-case in either source: Atlanta collapsed after halftime in every measurable way, and Stefanski's entire philosophy is second-half control. Two-time Coach of the Year, brought Bill Callahan in to coach the line. He also fed Nick Chubb 25 touches a game in Cleveland — and Bijan's share was only 68.8% of backfield opportunities, with Allgeier now gone.
| Market line | Read — blend PIT −3.7 |
|---|---|
| PIT −2.5 or less | Value on Pittsburgh. Below every source. The trench gap is real and it's at home. |
| PIT −3 to −4.5 | On the blend and inside Sharp's own road-line band for Atlanta. Fair — play the total. |
| PIT −5.5 or more | Atlanta plus the points. Past all three, against a team whose entire 2025 was fumble and one-score luck, and Atlanta is a volume dog-cover team — no road number above +7.5 all year. |
Two heavy, run-first offenses in the bottom six of three-receiver usage, one of them quarterbacked by the least downfield passer in the NFL who did not throw for 300 yards in a single game last season. Atlanta is 25th in points per drive and 30th on third down.
Not a card play and not a recommendation at this number. The regression case is genuinely one-sided — Pittsburgh was 2nd in fumble luck, 2nd in turnover EPA and 7–3 in one-score games; Atlanta 31st in fumble luck and 0–2 in overtime. But there is no market-vulnerability case, and the 2026 rankings grade Atlanta’s defensive line dead last against Pittsburgh’s #3. At +5 or better it becomes interesting. At +3.5 it is a stay-away.
The genuinely chaotic part. If Atlanta leads at half — they led in 14 of 17 games — they meet the worst closing defense of the last 25 years. But their own offense is 28th in second-half margin. Whichever collapse arrives first decides this, and the live market won't price either.
Where the Master Sheet dissents is instructive: it has Atlanta better on offense (29.55 to 27.7) and better on coaching, with Pittsburgh winning entirely on defense (+8.1) off that one enormous D-line gap. That's an unusually clean statement of what this game actually is — Atlanta has the better skill talent, Pittsburgh has the better front.
Atlanta's quarterback is unresolved. Penix ranked 25th of 33 in EPA/play, Tua 27th, and among 36 qualifiers Tua had the tied-2nd-highest turnover-worthy play rate. Hoppen's read is blunt: start Penix if healthy, and "Tua starting = fade harder." That interacts badly with Pittsburgh's fumble-recovery history.
The two luckiest teams in football from 2025, playing each other. Both records are fiction — the question is only whose fiction unwinds faster, and whether the trenches settle it first.
YES And it points at Chicago, not Carolina. Our model gave 0.78 to Carolina. Hoppen has Chicago #8 in EPA/play, #5 rush EPA, #3 rush success, #2 explosive rush and #1 in plays per game against a Carolina defense at #23 — while Carolina’s offense is #26. Both sides of the game favor Chicago.
NO Circa at −3.0 against Sharp’s summer −2.5 is a half-point drift with no story behind it. No overlay, no stale number, nobody identifiable on the wrong side. A better statistical read still isn’t a bet.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bears | #5 | #26 | #19 |
| Panthers | #26 | #15 | #14 |
Chicago's turnover EPA — #1 in the league and the second-highest by any team since 2013. A +22 turnover margin, 33 takeaways and 11 giveaways (all #1), plus +5.5 fumble recoveries over expectation, also #1. Sharp's phrase: "the NFL's version of Houdini."
Of the top-seven turnover-EPA teams since 2013, every one cratered the following year — the 2024 Bills went +112.9 to +6.0, and over half went outright negative. And Chicago's takeaway producers left: Byard (team-high 7 INTs), Gardner-Johnson and Edmunds are all gone.
Carolina's net point margin entering the fourth quarter across the season — and they won eight games anyway. One of only three teams in 471 this century to manage that. Add 7–3 in one-score games, 6–2 in field-goal games, and seven of their eight wins by one score. Expected record: 6.5–10.5.
Carolina's defensive penalties all season — fewest since 2016 — good for #1 in defensive penalty EPA (+14.57) and #4 in net penalty EPA. Another input that does not repeat. Both of these teams are worse than their records, and both regress. For the side, that largely cancels.
Chicago leads the NFL in yards before contact per rush (2.01). Carolina ranks 31st in yards before contact allowed. That is about as direct a collision as matchup analysis produces. Bears backs also went 46.1% success (#2) with 43% of runs gaining 5+ yards, first in football.
The same story in protection: Chicago was #1 in pass-block win rate (sacks 68 → 24, sack rate 10.8% → 4.1%), and Carolina was #31 in pressure rate with the NFL's worst QB-hit total (54). Carolina paid Jaelan Phillips $120M to fix it, but Nic Scourton tore his ACL.
Carolina's Master Sheet offensive-line grade — already regraded down from 8.2 on 09-08 for Ekwonu's patellar tendon and Moton's NFI, both out 4+ weeks. Your sheet is the only source carrying that injury; it's baked into the −2.05 above.
Master Sheet coaching grades. Ben Johnson is tied for second-highest in the league, and Sharp documents the fingerprints — early-down play action 24% → 44% (#30 → #2), motion 47% → 61%, and #4 in fourth-down decision EPA.
Bryce Young threw 20+ air yards on 1.0% of his first-quarter attempts — last among every qualifying QB season over twenty years. His first-quarter average air yards was 4.8, 44th of 45. Sharp's read is that the staff "neutered" him deliberately: "control him like a robot to prevent errors."
Carolina's first-half points per game (#30), with 4.24 in the second quarter (#29) and a first-half point margin of −90 on the season. They held a halftime lead in only five games, average margin −5.0.
Chicago's first-down EPA per play — 2nd in the NFL, up from 25th — with the league's highest rate of 10+ air-yard throws on early downs. Ben Johnson scripts; Carolina does not.
Young's overall standing: 32nd in EPA per attempt, 30th in success rate, 35th in YPA — and those were career highs. He failed to clear 200 passing yards in ten games.
Hoppen's verdict on Chicago's defense without the turnovers: "if turnover luck doesn't repeat, this is a bottom-5 defense." Sharp's numbers agree — #26 in total defensive efficiency, #27 in early-down success, #29 in pressure rate, #31 pass-rush win rate, and 4.8 YPC allowed to backs (#29).
Caleb Williams' off-target rate — worst among 33 qualifiers — with a 58.1% completion rate (40th of 45) and bottom-seven accuracy two years running. And Carolina's secondary is legitimately good: Horn with 5 INTs, Mike Jackson with an NFL-high 19 pass breakups, Moehrig at 5.9 yards per target, 6th-fewest explosive plays allowed.
Your own sheet has Carolina's defense rated higher than Chicago's — 23.4 to 20.6, with edges at both defensive line (8.0 to 6.6) and secondary (8.4 to 7.0). That's the entire reason it prices this at −2.05 instead of −3, and it lines up with what both other sources say about the Bears' defense.
Sharp's rest data looks like a Bears argument — 42-35-5 ATS since 2020 without a rest deficit, and 11-1-1 ATS in 2025 — and Week 1 gives nobody a deficit. But that 11-1-1 was produced by the same historic turnover luck that's regressing. Citing it here double-counts the luck.
| Market line | Read — ours CHI −2.2, Circa −3.0 |
|---|---|
| CHI −3.0 (current) | Pass. No market case — and the lean is Chicago, not Carolina. |
| CHI −4.5 or more | Carolina plus the points. Past every independent source, against a team whose defense is bottom-5 once the turnovers normalize. |
| CHI −1.5 or less | Chicago. Below our own number, and the run-game matchup is the most lopsided thing on this card. |
Chicago is 2nd in first-down EPA with the league's best scripted early-down passing; Carolina is 30th in first-half scoring with a −90 first-half margin and a quarterback who is statistically the most conservative first-quarter passer of the last twenty years.
First in the NFL in yards before contact against 31st in yards before contact allowed, behind the league's best run-blocking line, against a front missing Scourton.
Superseded. We wrote that the model’s 0.8 points on Carolina cancelled against a trench mismatch favouring Chicago. The matchup charts say the two never opposed each other: Chicago grades #8 in EPA/play, #5 rush EPA, #3 rush success, #2 explosive rush and #1 in plays per game against a #23 Carolina defense, while Carolina’s offense is #26. Both sides of the game favour Chicago. Still a pass — no market case at −3.0 against Sharp’s summer −2.5 — but the lean is Chicago, not Carolina.
The Rams are surrendering a home game to play this in Australia — which is the whole story of the number. Strip their home field out and Circa's −4.0 is almost exactly right.
NO 0.03 pts once the neutral site is handled. The tightest number on the board.
NO Not applicable — there is no disagreement to explain.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | #10 | #20 | #24 |
| Rams | #11 | #1 | #7 |
The field-goal rate San Francisco's opponents converted last season — the worst opponent FG rate any team has faced since 2002, with 6.54 kicks missed over expectation against them, by far the most in football. Add +8.58 net field goals over expected (#2) and 5–1 in one-score games, and you have a schedule of gifts that does not repeat.
San Francisco's penalty margin was the third-best in the league on the second-fewest flags — after finishing +32 the year before. A swing that large in one season is noise wearing a jersey.
The Rams' own kicking ran the opposite way — #32 in field-goal EPA (−10.92), #28 in FG rate, 1–4 in field-goal games and 0–2 in overtime. Mevis then went 12-of-13 after Week 10 and 6-of-6 in the playoffs. Two teams whose kicking luck is about to trade places.
The one real matchup edge: the Rams were #1 in EPA per rush, #1 in back success rate and #1 in first-down rate on the ground; San Francisco was #30 in rush success rate allowed at 4.5 YPC to backs.
San Francisco was #30 in pressure rate and #32 in sacks (20 — third-fewest in franchise history). The Rams allowed 23 sacks, tied for fewest in the league, with all five starters back. The pass-rush collision that would decide this game doesn't exist — SF is the wrong team to make Stafford uncomfortable, and Stafford grades 23rd–25th under pressure.
Hoppen calls the Rams' offensive line "the weakness" and the X-factor; Sharp grades it #5 in the league — fewest sacks allowed, #4 pressure rate. That's the flattest disagreement between the two sources on this slate, and it's about the unit the game turns on.
Stafford threw 28 consecutive touchdown passes without an interception, an NFL record, and became the first quarterback ever with four TDs and no picks in three straight games — at 37. His 48.1% end-zone conversion against a 37.4% league rate is the regression flag: 49 of 55 comparable QB seasons since 1990 threw fewer touchdowns the year after.
Our number and Circa's agree to within three-hundredths of a point once the neutral site is handled. There is nothing here.
Two teams at opposite extremes of field-goal luck. If either kicker's early misses move a live number, that's mean reversion being mispriced as form.
#1 EPA/rush against #30 rush-success-allowed is the only genuine mismatch, and it's the way a −4 becomes a −10.
The biggest number-edge on the slate, in the game with the biggest unknown. Both of those things are true at once, and they mostly cancel.
YES 4.1 pts, and it survives a regression of the sheet against Circa across the slate — the largest residual on the board after Washington’s.
NO Our market case was falsified. We claimed the public was pricing a non-repeating 30-takeaway season. Hoppen’s charts show Jacksonville’s defense was #3 in EPA/play, #3 in EPA/drive, #3 in early-down EPA and #3 in pass EPA — elite without the turnovers. The public is buying a top-three defense against the worst offense in football, which is a sound reason to lay 8.5. The number may still be too high; the reason we gave for it was wrong, and that is a thesis break, not discomfort.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Browns | #31 | #12 | #12 |
| Jaguars | #30 | #9 | #9 |
Jacksonville's takeaways. They are the first team in NFL history to record 30+ takeaways after a season of ten or fewer, and points off turnovers went from 25 to 110 — first in the league.
Their record in field-goal games (the league's only perfect mark) and overtime (best in football), plus 6–3 in one-score games, +3.5 fumble recoveries over expected, #4 in field-goal luck, four return touchdowns and 9–1 against losing teams. Health ranked 7th.
Quarterbacks Jacksonville faced who were backups or rookies — all seven in the second half of the season — on the #5 easiest schedule of opposing offenses. The 2025 record was assembled out of exactly the inputs that don't repeat.
ESPN's schedule pain index rates Jacksonville #32 in 2026 — the worst mark since 2002: 35 days between home games, no back-to-back home games all season, seven of the final ten on the road. It starts now.
Cleveland's backs averaged 0.38 yards before contact — dead last, and the worst of 448 team-seasons since 2012, with a huge gap to second-worst. They run into a Jacksonville defense that was #1 in rushing yards allowed and the third team since 2000 to give up no individual 75-yard rushing game.
On first down Cleveland was 32nd in EPA per pass, 32nd in pass success, 32nd in yards per attempt, 32nd in first downs per attempt and 32nd in passer rating — which cascaded into 32nd in average distance to go on third down. Their receivers scored four touchdowns all season.
Nobody in either source names a Cleveland Week 1 starter. The room is Watson, Sanders and Gabriel. Watson is #59 of 59 over five years in EPA per play and #59 in sacks per pressure; Sanders drew an NFL-high 51% pressure rate and caused 29% of his own pressures (#44 of 45). This is very likely what moved the line a point and a half.
Cleveland's line is a rookie left tackle plus three imports, with only one returning starter — after eight different combinations played 50+ snaps last year. Jim Schwartz also resigned after being passed over for the head job; Sharp calls that a bigger loss than Myles Garrett.
Cleveland's defense was #1 in football on a per-drive basis — #2 in total efficiency, #2 against the pass, #4 against the run, #1 in yards allowed per drive (24.0), #2 in EPA per play — on below-average spending, with 53 sacks (3rd, a franchise record) and 117 tackles for loss (#1). The entire starting secondary returns.
Cleveland's game totals are the lowest band in Sharp's entire book, clustered at 39.5–41.5. In a 40-point game, 8.5 points is an enormous share of the expected margin — big numbers are structurally harder to cover in low-total games.
And Jacksonville's offense isn't the counterweight the number implies — 18th in yards per play with Sharp's #29-ranked running back room, and Lawrence lost 50.8 EPA to drops, the most in the NFL (that part regresses in his favor).
| Market line | Read — ours JAX −4.4, Sharp's look −7.0 |
|---|---|
| JAX −8.5 (current) | Cleveland plus the points — on the card, but see the caveat. Four points clear of our number, 1.5 clear of Sharp's, in the lowest-total game in the book. |
| JAX −6.5 or less | At Sharp's number and closing on ours. Edge mostly gone. |
This was our largest edge and it is now a no play. The fade rested on Jacksonville’s takeaways being unrepeatable luck; their defense graded #3 in EPA/play, EPA/drive, early-down EPA and pass EPA without them. The market is laying 8.5 for a sound reason. The statistical gap is still the second-largest on the board, so this is a tension rather than a clean call — but Commandment 2 needs both columns and column two is empty.
Lowest totals in Sharp's book for a reason: the worst first-down passing offense in football against a defense that's #1 per drive, plus the #1 run defense against the worst run-blocking team since 2012.
The best offense in football against the best defense in football, and every number on the board says pick’em. This is the most honestly-priced game on the slate — and the one where the structural argument is loudest.
YES Real, but pointing at Buffalo, not Houston. The Bills are top-4 in nearly every offensive category; Houston’s offense is #21/#28 and its run game is #30. Our earlier read had this backwards.
NO The line already moved a point toward Buffalo since summer (HOU +1.5 → +0.5). Backing the Bills now is buying high, which is what Commandment 9 exists to prevent. Stay away — but for the opposite reason we first gave.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills | #6 | #14 | #13 |
| Texans | #27 | #2 | #2 |
Josh Allen’s rate of sacks taken per third-down pressure, by year: 14.7, 23.1, 14.5, 9.8 — then 32.2% last season, #36 in the league. His third-down sack rate was 15.1% (#39) on 19 third-down sacks (#41). Even unblitzed on third down, 43% of his dropbacks ended in a hit or a sack, against 25% and 19% the two years before.
Houston’s defense pressures at 42.2%, #2 in football — and gets there on 37% of dropbacks without blitzing (#4), a rate higher than the league average WITH a blitz. When they do blitz they arrive in 2.27 seconds, 4th-fastest. This is the exact defense that breaks the exact thing Allen broke on last year.
Khalil Shakir’s average target depth — the lowest of any receiver with 90+ targets in 752 such seasons since 2007. Only 38.9% of his catches gained a first down, second-worst of any receiver in twenty years. Allen’s own aDOT has fallen every season since 2022 (9.2 → 8.7 → 8.3 → 7.3, #32, worst in the NFL), with 26% of throws at or behind the line.
And that dink-and-dunk offense runs into Sharp’s #1 secondary, fronted by Derek Stingley Jr. — back-to-back first-team All-Pro and PFF’s highest-graded coverage corner since 2023. Buffalo’s receivers were 18th in catches, 22nd in yards, 23rd in touchdowns and 27th in target rate per route.
The counterweight, and it is enormous. Buffalo’s run defense allowed 136.2 rush yards/gm (#28), 5.1 YPC (#30), #26 yards before contact, #32 yards after contact — and added nothing inside all offseason. Houston’s schedule of run defenses eases from #3 to a projected #21, the single largest rushing-schedule improvement in the league, and it starts here.
David Montgomery on man/gap runs: #1 in EPA per rush, #1 in first-down rate (44%), #2 in YPC (6.6). Houston ran man/gap on 38.8% of carries, 2nd-most in football. The one thing Houston does well is aimed straight at the one thing Buffalo cannot do.
Houston’s net field goals made over expectation — #1 in football. They went 48-of-52; their opponents went 18-of-27, the worst rate any defense faced. Add 7–5 in one-score games and 19 interceptions forced (#3) and the 2025 record has a large luck component that does not carry.
Stroud has fallen ten spots in Sharp’s rankings. Career-low 217.2 yards/game, and a playoff run of 87 dropbacks, 51.9% completions, zero touchdowns, five interceptions and six sacks across Pittsburgh and New England. Sharp’s word for it: “an abject disaster.” The Master Sheet is harsher still — QB 12.0 of 24, near-replacement.
Houston’s red-zone touchdown rate, 30th, eleven points below league average. Inside the twenty Stroud was #40 in success, #41 in yards per attempt (3.0), #28 in EPA. The cause is self-inflicted: 78% of early-down red-zone passes came from 3+ WR sets (#4) while 63% of red-zone runs used fewer (#13). They tip themselves.
Buffalo led at halftime in only 7 of 17 games and was outscored by 11 points at the break on the season — then scored 7.1 in the third quarter (#3) and 8.9 in the fourth (#1). Allen is #1 of 41 quarterbacks in second-half EPA over three years. Houston, meanwhile, was outscored by 40 after halftime and scored 3.41 third-quarter points a game (#26). Whatever the first half says, the second half has been Buffalo’s.
Under half a point of edge. Every source is inside a field goal of pick’em and they disagree about why. There is no bet here at this number.
#1 defense, #28 offense, a 30th-ranked red zone and the worst third-quarter team in football, against a passing game with the shortest target depth in the league. Both teams’ scoring is structurally capped.
Buffalo is #1 in fourth-quarter scoring and #1 in three-year second-half EPA; Houston is minus-40 after halftime. If Houston leads at the break, the live number is the play, not the pregame one.
We called this a best play and the matchup charts say it was wrong. The Montgomery man/gap splits are real, but at team level Houston is #30 in rush EPA, #30 in rush success and #30 in explosive rush. Bad-on-bad against Buffalo’s #30 run defense is not a mismatch. Off the board.
Our sources say Arizona is worth almost two points here. Sharp’s summer number says the market has already paid three of them out. Those two facts are why this came off the card.
YES 1.8 pts, and the largest health-regression case on the board.
NO Fails Commandment 9 — this is buying high. Sharp’s summer number was LAC −11.5 and Circa is at −8.5. Three points have already moved our way. We would be buying the back end of a move that already happened, which is a different bet than the one the model thinks it is making.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | #22 | #31 | #26 |
| Chargers | #7 | #23 | #11 |
The Chargers’ record in one-score games (.750, #3) and field-goal games (#4), plus 1–0 in overtime. Six of their eleven wins came by one score, Dicker hit 92.7% (#5) for +20.46 field-goal EPA (#7), and they drew the #8 easiest schedule with 11 games against non-playoff teams (#3 most). Sharp’s own verdict: “an 11-win team that probably didn’t deserve to be an 11-win team.”
Los Angeles’s net rest for 2026: #32 in the NFL, the 4th-largest deficit since 1990, #2 since 2000, #1 since 2013. Seven rest-disadvantage games is a franchise record and only one other team since 1998 has had that many. From Week 3 on they play the league’s #2 hardest schedule, with a rest disparity in eight straight games, Weeks 6 through 13. None of that helps Arizona today — but it is why the season-long price is wrong.
The 2025 Chargers offensive line: #32 pass-block win rate, #31 run-block win rate, #30 PFF pass block, #32 PFF run block, #3 most-injured line in football. Their most-used five-man combination played 181 snaps — 16.5% of offensive plays, the lowest rate in the NFL. By January they were on the fifth combination.
Herbert was hit more than any quarterback in football — T-2nd most by any QB in twenty seasons — and took 54 sacks (#3). That is the third-most sacks ever absorbed by a quarterback on an 11-win team in the Super Bowl era; the average for the 200 eleven-win teams since 2000 is 31.6.
Arizona’s side of the ledger. They finished #1 worst in player health in the entire NFL — 32nd on offense, 31st on defense, 32nd overall — plus #2 hardest schedule, #2 worst field-goal luck, #5 worst fumble luck, #9 worst turnover EPA, 2–8 in one-score games (#3 worst) and 0–5 in field-goal games (worst in football). Murray played five games. Paris Johnson Jr. and Marvin Harrison Jr. missed five apiece. Their starting line played together on 23.7% of snaps.
Trey McBride set the all-time single-season record for a tight end, breaking Ertz’s 116 by ten, and became the first tight end ever with back-to-back hundred-catch seasons. Arizona’s 36% tight-end target share is #1 in the NFL. The Chargers used 12 personnel on 5.8% of snaps (#32) and played dime-or-bigger on 23% (#3 most), with Perryman available ten games and Colson at 218 career snaps. That is the matchup.
The Chargers’ record in games Joe Alt started and finished. With Alt on 184 dropbacks Herbert posted 67.5% completions (10th), 9.1 aDOT (2nd), 8.3 YPA (4th), a 7.1% TD rate (2nd). On 431 dropbacks without him: 7.3 aDOT (25th), 6.9 YPA (22nd), 4.2% TD (26th), 10.1% sack rate (31st). Sharp’s note is that his EPA per dropback with Alt on the field would have led all qualified quarterbacks over a full season. If Alt and Slater are both back, this line is not wrong.
Fewest allowed in the NFL. Jesse Minter’s 2025 defense: 1.80 points per drive (#5), #5 total yards, #5 pass, #8 run, 20.0 PPG (#9), 35.2% on third down (#5), 46.9% red-zone TD rate (#4), and opponents reaching the red zone on 28% of drives — #1 in football.
Brissett is not the problem the record suggests. Among 45 qualifiers he was #18 in EPA, #19 in success rate, #20 in completions, #23 in yards per attempt — ahead of Murray, Rodgers, Hurts, Mayfield and Lamar Jackson. Clean-pocket accuracy 81.7% (8th), 97.0 rating clean vs 62.3 pressured (32nd). Sharp: his play “was certainly NOT the sole reason” for 1–11.
Harbaugh’s go-rate on 4th-and-2 or less from his own 40 or beyond — the lowest in the league by a mile against a 78% average. Over two seasons he is 30th in go rate and 31st in fourth-down decision EPA. That is a structural cap on blowout margins in a game he is favored by eight and a half.
Off the card and not a recommendation at this number. 1.8 points of model value and the largest health-regression case on the board — but Sharp’s summer market was LAC −11.5 and Circa is −8.5, so three points have already moved our way. Buying the back end of a completed move is Commandment 9 in reverse. At +9.5 or better it goes back on.
The all-time record holder at his position, on a team with the league’s #1 tight-end target share, against a defense that plays dime on 23% of snaps with a linebacker room that has 218 career snaps behind an injured starter.
#29 red-zone touchdown rate, an NFL-worst 5.2% red-zone interception rate from Herbert, 47% fourth-down aggression, and only 14% of receiver catches gaining 20+ (#25). This offense does not produce blowouts even when it wins.
#32 net rest, the #2 hardest schedule from Week 3 on, eight consecutive rest-disparity games, and a defense losing its coordinator. The price on their season number is the real edge, not this spread.
Two of the four worst rosters in football, and the market is charging a full field goal plus the hook for the home one. Our number says three-and-a-half is half a point too many — and Sharp’s summer line agrees.
YES 1.4 pts, with both independents and Sharp’s summer number all saying Las Vegas should not lay more than a field goal.
YES Line moved LV −3.0 → −3.5, so Miami got cheaper (Commandment 9). Neither team is remotely a league-level favorite, so Commandment 5 clears it. And we take the hook through the key number of 3.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | #25 | #30 | #32 |
| Raiders | #18 | #24 | #28 |
Las Vegas’s yards before contact per rush. Sharp’s framing: “not just #32 in the NFL last year, but the worst for any team in the NFL since 2013.” Add 3.6 YPC (#32), −0.23 EPA per rush (#32) and a 29.6% success rate (#32). A clean sweep of last place.
Raiders first-half scoring per game — #32. Also #32 in first-quarter EPA per pass (−0.32), #31 in EPA per play, #31 in yards per play, and outscored by 111 points at halftime (#30). Sixteen of their 64 sacks allowed came in the first quarter alone.
Most in the NFL, an 11.1% sack rate, and 26% of all pressures turned into sacks — #32. Which is the one place Miami can’t capitalize: the Dolphins were 26th in pressure rate at 31.8%, and Chop Robinson fell to an 8.4% pressure rate, 149th of 219 qualifiers. The mismatch exists; neither team can exploit it.
Malik Willis’s record in games with double-digit dropbacks where the opponent scored 15 or more. Sharp, flatly: “in his four NFL seasons, he has never won a game in which the opponent scored more than 14 points.” His three career wins: 16–10, 17–10, 30–14.
The share of 2025 offensive and defensive snaps Miami is replacing. Sharp’s benchmark: “turnover above 35% on one side is considered a major rebuild… clearing 50% on both sides is nearly unprecedented.” They carry ~$180M in dead money — 60% of a $301.2M cap paid to players not on the roster, destroying the old record of $127.7M.
De’Von Achane’s PFF rushing grade — #1 among all 55 qualifying backs. He was #1 in the rate of runs gaining 10+ yards (16.8%), 2nd in yards per touch, at 5.7 YPC with 4.1 yards after contact and 1,838 scrimmage yards. He is the best player who will be on this field.
Miami’s depth index has five separate units ranked dead last — receiver, tight end, edge, corner and safety. Opponents completed 52% of throws of 10+ air yards against them, third-worst in football. If Las Vegas can protect at all, the field is open.
The Willis paradox. On the samples that exist he is first in EPA per play among 60 quarterbacks with 40+ dropbacks last year, and first among 62 with 100+ dropbacks since 2024. His 89 attempts in Green Bay produced 10.9 yards per attempt, +0.37 EPA and 79% completions. Over two years he leads all quarterbacks in fantasy points per snap (0.73), ahead of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, on a league-high 14.5% scramble rate.
Sharp grades Las Vegas #1 in the NFL in net rest edge, #1 in prep and #1 in rest. Miami is #24 in net rest, #31 in prep, #30 in rest, with exactly one game all season in which they have more rest than their opponent — #32. Not a Week 1 factor, but it is the season-long shape.
The Mendoza caution, if the rookie plays instead. His college sack rate against pressure was 21%, 60th of 78, and 73% of his college throws came from a clean pocket — 6th-highest in the class. Behind the worst run-blocking line since 2013, that is a bad combination.
Miami’s giveaway profile should improve regardless: 29th in interceptions thrown (18) and 27th in total turnovers (24) — while Willis has thrown zero interceptions and lost two fumbles across two seasons. The one place Miami’s teardown might quietly help them.
1.4 points of model value, both independent sources on the same side, and Sharp’s summer number half a point better for us than Circa’s. Getting the hook through 3 in a game between two bottom-five rosters is the whole bet.
The #32 first-half offense against a defense that is bad but not fast, with a quarterback who has never won a game where the opponent scored 15. Totals are banded 39.5–47.5 on the Raiders all year for a reason.
The #1 graded back in football is the one clean talent edge on the field, on an offense with nothing else. Volume is close to guaranteed.
#32 in first-quarter EPA per pass, with a quarter of their sacks allowed coming in the opening frame. If they start slow again the live number overreacts to a structural fact.
Our Master Sheet spits out Philadelphia by twelve. The market says four and a half. When a model disagrees with a market by that much, the model is usually the thing that’s broken — and here it is. This page shows the work.
NO Retracted. We called the sheet’s −12.2 a reputation-grading failure. It isn’t: the sheet’s unit columns correlate with the independent 2026 rankings at ρ = 0.93 (OL), 0.99 (DL), 0.98 (DB). The grades are sound. The number is still an outlier — see below for the real cause.
NO Circa at −4.5 sits almost exactly where both Hoppen’s efficiency data and the market agree. No vulnerability, no bet — the verdict is unchanged even though the reasoning behind it was not.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Commanders | #32 | #25 | #31 |
| Eagles | #2 | #4 | #4 |
And the conversion is fine too. Regressing the sheet’s margin against Circa’s line across the slate — excluding this game — gives a slope of 0.948 at r = 0.93. The 0.5-points-per-rating-point rule implies 0.474 in practice. The sheet is a good model and we said it was a broken one.
This game really is the outlier — a residual more than twice the next largest on the board. So the number is wrong. The cause is just not what we said.
The real hypothesis: unit grades add linearly, team strength doesn’t. Philadelphia is top-four in all three graded units (OL #2, DL #4, DB #4). Washington is bottom-eight in all three (OL #32, DL #25, DB #31). That is the most extreme configuration available on this slate, and summing the columns straight across overstates it. A team elite everywhere does not get the full sum of its parts, and a team bad everywhere does not pay it either.
Which is a falsifiable claim, unlike the last one. If it holds, sheet error should scale with how concentrated a team’s extremes are across units, not with the size of the gap alone. That is the next thing to check, and it needs more than fifteen games.
Washington’s defense is a genuine historical outlier — the only defense since 2021 to allow 35%+ of drives into the red zone AND 67%+ touchdowns once there (37% / 68%). Plus 38.2 yards per drive allowed (#32), 78% down-set conversion (#32), 23% three-and-outs forced (#32) and 384 yards a game, most in the NFL.
The average opponent opening drive against Washington — worst in the NFL, worst by any Washington defense this century, 13th-worst by anyone in 26 years. First quarter: 101 points allowed (#28), a −64 first-quarter margin (#31), and seven punts forced in 39 first-quarter drives — the worst rate by any defense this century.
Philadelphia’s rest differential across Weeks 1–9 — easily the worst in the NFL, four disadvantage games and zero advantages, inside a season-long −15 (#2 hardest, their worst since 2012). History: since 2015 at a 3+ day rest disadvantage the Eagles are 7–14–1 straight up and against the spread (−36.4% ROI); since 2020, 2–6–1 ATS at −52.3% ROI, third-worst in football.
The Eagles’ regression flags. 8–4 in one-score games, second-most such wins in the league, with 72.7% of all their wins coming by one score (5th-highest); a #1 red-zone touchdown rate of 70.5% against a 57.3% league average and their own 57.4% the year before; and the #2 healthiest roster two years running, with Hurts, Barkley and Smith missing zero games.
Philadelphia was #32 in penalty margin (26 more flags than opponents), #32 in defensive penalty EPA and #31 in net penalty EPA (−23.6) — and 61% of all second-half penalties in Eagles games went against Philadelphia, most in the league. Structural, not variance.
Fangio’s pass defense allowed fourteen passing touchdowns — fewest in the NFL and the franchise’s lowest since 2001 — at 6.4 yards per attempt (#5), with the league’s best third-down and red-zone pass defense and 14.9 points allowed per game from Week 10 on, best in football. Quinyon Mitchell allowed a 42.4% completion rate, best of any full-season corner; DeJean allowed zero slot touchdowns. Both first-team All-Pro.
Washington’s offense was not the problem — 33.0 yards per drive (#10), a 24% three-and-out rate (#2), #10 in early-down success, #11 rush efficiency, and a 65.2% red-zone touchdown rate (4th). Daniels played 38.4% of snaps, appeared in seven games and finished four; he and McLaurin were healthy together for five days all season.
McLaurin is aimed exactly at the graded hole: 14th among 100+ route runners, a 30.9% target share, 45.7% of the team’s air yards when on the field, 14.0 air yards per target, and 55% of his targets producing a first down or touchdown — 3rd in the NFL. Vertical, between the numbers, against three safeties nobody trusts.
Washington’s own regression case is real too: #31 turnover margin, #32 in opponent fumbles lost, #30 in roster health with nine starters missing 7+ games (against one the year before), 2–5 in one-score games after 8–4, and 0–3 in field-goal games (#32) after 4–1 (#5). Both teams regress. That is why the market is at 4.5 and not wider.
Our honest number is Circa’s number. The only version of this game with an edge is the one built on unit grades that two independent sources contradict in writing. Not on the card.
The one place where the broken grade points at something real. A 14-air-yard, 31%-target-share receiver against the safety room both books call the exploitable spot. Attack the middle, not the perimeter.
Philadelphia’s offense was the worst of the Sirianni era — 22.3 PPG (#19), 311 yards (#24), #28 in motion rate with Super Bowl personnel — against the #4 easiest schedule of defenses, and it went 5–5 in its last ten. Now there is a new play-caller, the fifth in five years.
A −22 rest differential over nine weeks, on a team that is 2–6–1 ATS at a 3+ day deficit since 2020. That is where the Eagles number is actually mispriced, not here.
The cleanest signal on the board. Both independent sources make this a pick’em or better for Green Bay, Sharp’s own schedule sheets have the Packers as the road favorite, and the market is laying a point and a half the other way.
YES 1.45 pts. Both independents sit at pick ’em or better for Green Bay.
NO Honest downgrade. Sharp’s summer market had Green Bay favored here and Circa now gives them 1.5 — but the most likely cause is the Micah Parsons ACL, which is information the market priced correctly, not public bias. This is a bet on the football with the market column unproven. Size it accordingly.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packers | #28 | #27 | #10 |
| Vikings | #12 | #22 | #22 |
Jordan Love’s EPA per dropback from a clean pocket — #1 in the NFL. Overall he was #2 in EPA per dropback (0.22), 6th in rating (101.2), 6th in interception rate (1.4%), 8th in touchdown-to-interception ratio. Sharp’s flat statement: “Jordan Love just might be the NFL’s most underrated quarterback.”
Where Minnesota’s three 2025 quarterbacks finished in EPA per play out of 57 qualifiers. McCarthy specifically: #36 of 36 in interception rate, #35 in EPA, #35 in completion rate, #35 in rating, #35 in accuracy, with a 14.4% catastrophic-play rate — worst in the NFL and the first non-rookie since JaMarcus Russell to pair sub-58% completions with a 14%+ catastrophic rate.
And Kyler Murray is not the fix. Since 2022 on throws of 10+ air yards he ranks #50 of 50 in EPA per attempt; on 25+ air yards he is #36 of 36 in EPA, yards per attempt and completion rate; between the hashes over four years, #47 of 50. He has been healthy for one of the last five seasons. Sharp: “Minnesota upgraded from disaster to uncertainty at quarterback.”
Love is #2 in the NFL in EPA when blitzed (+0.31) — and Flores’s defense led the league in blitz rate (48%), pressure rate (44.5%), and the rates of rushing five and six-plus, using four-man rushes on only 50% of snaps (#32). Green Bay’s quarterback is specifically excellent at the specific thing Minnesota specifically does.
Third down. Green Bay converted at #2 in football against a 39.5% average; Minnesota’s offense converted at #32. Sharp’s caveat is honest — “the Packers ran pure on third downs, which could be difficult to replicate” — but the gap is eighteen points wide.
The Minnesota defense that carried a 9–8 team is dismantled. It was #3 in yards per play, #2 in passing yards allowed, #2 in red-zone touchdown rate, #4 on third down, #1 in pressure rate, #3 in points allowed, 49 sacks (#4). Greenard traded to Philadelphia, Allen and Hargrave cut, roughly $50M over the cap. The front seven fell from #1 to #20.
Minnesota’s 2025 quarterback play on the first fifteen scripted plays: #6 in EPA, #5 in success, #5 in yards per attempt, 69.2% completions. After the script ran out: #35 in EPA, #34 in success, #33 in yards per attempt, 53.4%. Sharp: “When the answers were handed to him, he was a top-five quarterback. When he had to find them himself, he was the worst quarterback in the NFL.”
The rate at which Love was pressured last year — a career high — and his EPA under pressure was −0.37, #21. Green Bay’s line fell from #10 to #27, was 29th in pressure rate allowed, and its starting five played together on 18% of snaps (#30). Walker left for Carolina and Jenkins for Cleveland; the plan is Morgan to left tackle and Rhyan to center with a fifth-rounder as the only addition. Against the #1 blitz-and-pressure defense in football, that is the way Green Bay loses this game. The Master Sheet agrees: Minnesota’s line grades 9.2 to Green Bay’s 7.0.
Parsons and Gary produced twenty of Green Bay’s thirty-six sacks. Parsons is rehabbing a December ACL and may open on PUP; Gary was traded to Dallas; Enagbare is gone. Van Ness has 8.5 sacks in three seasons. The rest of the roster generated sixteen sacks all year. Sharp’s own note: “the most expensive pass-rush acquisition in NFL history did not translate into elite team-level disruption.”
Green Bay’s interceptions, year over year — from T-#3 in the league to #28, with takeaways per drive falling from #3 to #25. The coverage split is the tell: 6.4 yards per attempt allowed (#6) but #24 in EPA allowed per pass. Nixon allowed 6 touchdowns and a 105.1 rating; Valentine 7 and a 121.2.
Fumble luck flatters both sides and cancels: Green Bay was #5 (+4.3 net recoveries over expectation), Minnesota #4 (+4.5, with opponents losing a league-high 13 of 22). Kicking runs the other way, hard — Minnesota was #3 in field-goal rate, #1 in extra points, #1 in field-goal EPA (+32.7), #3 in field-goal luck, all fade candidates; Green Bay was #23, #27, and #27 in net field goals over expected, with McManus at a league-worst 42.9% from 40–49 before being replaced.
The strongest signal on the slate: both independent sources at or better than pick’em, and Sharp’s summer market had Green Bay laying points in this building. We are getting a number two to three points better than the one the market printed in June.
If the contest side is taken, the outright is the same opinion at a better price. The 1.5 is nearly meaningless as a cushion; the disagreement is about who is better, not by how much.
#32 on third down, a quarterback who is #50 of 50 downfield since 2022, and a passing game that was top-five only on scripted plays.
Green Bay scored 3.0 first-quarter points a game (#29) but allowed 1.5 (#1). A scoreless or trailing first quarter is their normal shape, not a signal.
A small edge on the biggest positive-regression team in football, against a defense that just allowed more points than any team in the sixty-six-year history of the franchise.
YES 0.6 pts — the smallest number on the card, and deliberately so. Small spreads take the least distortion from our conversions (Commandment 7).
YES Dallas is the most heavily public team in football, and the price shows it: 2–8 against the spread as a favorite, 1–4 as a road favorite. That is a repeating structural overlay, not a model output. Line moved +2.5 → +3.0, so we buy low and get the key number of 3.
| Team | O-line | D-line | Secondary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | #17 | #13 | #20 |
| Giants | #23 | #21 | #27 |
The Giants’ record in one-score games — .125, #31 in football, tied for last in one-score wins and 30th in one-score losses. Sharp: “Flip their one-score losses, and the Giants were a 10–7 team.” Seven of thirteen losses were one possession; five more were blown double-digit leads. They were outscored by 36 in the fourth quarter (#26) despite scoring the 12th-most fourth-quarter points — the collapses were defensive.
Points allowed by Dallas — the most in the sixty-six-year history of the franchise. 30.1 per game (#32), 2.88 per drive (#32), 252 passing yards a game (#32), and #32 in early-down success, total efficiency, red zone and explosive rate, #31 in pass defense, #30 against the run and on third down.
Dallas’s touchdown-to-interception ratio allowed through the air — the 5th-worst by any defense in the last decade. The takeaways have not come back since Dan Quinn left.
Jaxson Dart’s rookie split is the most extreme in either conference. Passing EPA −15.09 (#28 of 36 quarterbacks) against rushing EPA +46.34 — 3rd among all rookies since 2000, behind only Jayden Daniels and Cam Newton. His 17.5 EPA on designed runs was #2 in the entire NFL behind Josh Allen, and his nine rushing touchdowns are the third-most ever by a rookie quarterback. On third down he was +0.13 EPA per attempt, #6 in the league — the best rookie third-down mark of 33 qualifiers since 2020, against a group average of −0.18.
Dallas drew 133 accepted penalties, most in football, for 1,136 yards (#2) — 31 offensive holds (tied worst) and 23 false starts, with Smith, Guyton and Pickens at seven apiece. (The honest caveat: the penalty EPA equation actually favored them, 3rd on offense and 11th on defense.)
The Giants’ offense was quietly one of the league’s most improved and the record hid it: #10 in EPA per play, #8 in yards per drive (33.9), a turnover on only 9% of drives (#13). First-quarter points went to #11 after ranking #32, #32 and #30 in the three prior years — and #7 excluding Russell Wilson’s three starts. Excluding those: yards per drive #8 (from #28), red-zone drive rate #10 (from #26), touchdowns per drive #11 (from #30).
Dexter Lawrence is in Cincinnati, and his on/off split is the biggest downside variable in the Giants’ book. With him on the field New York was #13 in yards per attempt, #15 in pressure rate, #8 in pass success, #10 in EPA per pass, #8 in sack rate. Without him: #32, #31, #31, #30, #30. The longer-window version shows the same shape. The 2026 Giants are the “without” column.
Dallas’s run game is real and New York’s run defense is not. Cowboys rush EPA +0.09 (#5, up from #27), 44.1% success (#7), 4.6 YPC (#9); Javonte Williams went 1,201 and 11 at 4.8. The Giants allowed 5.5 yards per carry to running backs — three-tenths worse than the 31st-place Bengals — on 1.85 yards before contact. Parker’s Dallas scheme is built on light boxes, which is exactly what Dallas got on 32.5% of Williams’s carries (#3).
Prescott’s play-action EPA per attempt last year, on 173 dropbacks worth +51.9 total — against +35.7 total across 568 play-action dropbacks from 2020 to 2024. His 11-personnel EPA per play went #30 to #2, EPA per pass #27 to #3, early-down passing #23 to #4. His CPOE was +4.4 (#3) on an expected completion rate of 62.9% — the hardest throw diet in the league.
New York’s interior defensive line is now Reader, Fotu and a 32-year-old Shelby Harris after Roy Robertson-Harris tore an Achilles in offseason workouts, on top of the Lawrence trade. And Sharp calls the No. 5 overall pick playing off-ball linebacker value-diminishing with Burns and Carter already owning the edges.
Dallas played the #2 easiest schedule in football last year — the #7 easiest slate of defenses, the #3 easiest slate of offenses, the #2 easiest slate of run defenses — and went 7–9–1, 1–5 against playoff teams, trailing in sixteen of seventeen games. 2026 is the #4 hardest schedule with the largest year-over-year jump in difficulty in the league “by a mile.”
Dallas’s against-the-spread record as a favorite last season, including 1–4 as a road favorite — against 5–2 as a dog, on a 7–10 overall ATS mark and 13–4 to the over. The Giants went 9–7 ATS and 11–6 over as a team that was an underdog in sixteen of seventeen games.
And the Giants’ 1–7 one-score record came against the hardest schedule in the NFL, with ten games against winning teams — the most of any team — going 2–8 in them. Positive regression on both the record and the slate.
A small, clean edge on the league’s biggest one-score-regression candidate, at home, against a favorite that went 1–4 as a road chalk and just allowed the most points in franchise history. Getting the key number of 3 is most of the value.
First-quarter scoring jumped from #32/#32/#30 to #11 — #7 without Wilson’s starts — while the fourth-quarter collapses were defensive. Bet the halves, not the game, against the #32 scoring defense in football.
#2 in the NFL in designed-run EPA behind Josh Allen, third-most rookie rushing touchdowns ever, against a defense that finished #32 in red zone and #30 against the run.
Dallas was 13–4 to the over, the Giants 11–6, and Dallas’s defense set a franchise record for points allowed. Both books point the same way here.